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Yes end of June hence the drop back.
End ofJune........
Yes I think once Equity is done then a 're rate imho, not long to wait as needs to be done before end of Match
ATB
@ Duster it all depends on business developments and time frame. Assuming they deleverage over the next couple of years to a normal level and EBITDA climbs higher through revenue and opex improvements, they should easily have a c. USD 600m Enterprise Value. Knock off 100-200m net debt as a sustainable run-rate level and the increase in shares assuming only a $25m raise, then you get to a share price of around 50p medium to long term. Obviously can be much higher if day rates for the fleet move into a structural bull market (it is so cyclical). Would guess more in the 20p range for most of this year though. Of course no crystal ball! But risk/reward is impressive. I think many of the worries minority shareholders have had over the past 12+ months, especially around intentions of SF, are being rapidly alleviated.
Where do you see this 're rating to AA after raise, I'd go for 25p + imho
This is good news and very obviously a better deal than before. Obviously it took a bit of time but these things always do.
Interesting that it reads as if they may very well never need to do the full $75m equity raise. They leave open the possibility of a broader refinancing after the $25m raise happening soon. If they are able to drive material cost reductions, efficiencies, contract wins, slowly improving day rates etc over the next 12-18 months then it appears they MIGHT manage to avoid the additional $50m raise. That $53m in interest savings for 2021 and 2022 is also uncanny and I can't help but think is being seen as temporarily "in-lieu" of the remaining $50m raise . It will go straight to extra cash in their pockets and hence net debt reduction. I can see a scenario where they clean up the business significantly over the next 12-18 months and refinance with a different set of banks and never have to raise more than the $25m now.
It's also interesting that they refer to "strategic and tactical alternatives" for the business once the balance sheet has de-levered. That obviously refers to either an eventual merger with SF or some other form of M&A/sector consolidation.
It's also interesting that SF and Mazroui are named as specifically working together re: NDA, committing to participate pro-rata in the upcoming $25m raise, etc. Where is Horizon in all of this? Horizon were of course key to getting them over 50% control. If Horizon are of a different mindset now then that is positive for us minority shareholders as SF have less power.
I also don't expect this to fully re-rate until the equity raise is complete. And I hope the $25m raise is structured as a rights issue in order to enable us all to participate. Although if not, can still at least partially offset any dilution by buying the corresponding entitlement amount in the open market.
Well done GMS and SF. Patient LTH's will benefit.
... is all that's required here now.
This is just the beginning of the turnaround and it has a long way to go yet.
Looks like a lot of people were waiting to jump out this morning fair play to them...but this gonna go to the moon now
unless you are world top10 day traders, can profit by trade in and out in this kind of spread, pretty much can see intraday future, I doubt it. otherwise it would be silly to sell your investment holding today.
AmBasteir Early days , GMS usually has a good afternoon. This has been priced to fail for months , time to let the traders leave and investors take positions.
14.90%
Can see a big re rate here .
"particularly in the MENA Region, where contract awards, delayed as a result of COVID, are expected to be awarded in 2021"
Be nice to get some new contracts announced in the near term and a revision of the EBITDA so Mr market isn't left guessing.
"This new agreement with the banks is on vastly improved terms to what was agreed in June last year. As a result, it creates a positive platform on which the future development and growth of the business can be based; allowing the Company to benefit from the pick-up across its core markets."
"As the numbers demonstrate, GMS is in a strong position. Underlying operations continue to see good progress, with a far better secured utilisation position than this time last year, combined with improved margins and efficiencies. The pipeline of work opportunities continues to strengthen, particularly in the MENA Region, where contract awards, delayed as a result of COVID, are expected to be awarded in 2021, in addition to further demand created as NOC clients look to increase production capabilities."
COV - Completely agree. "The company expects that this will lead to significant improvement in EBITDA going forward and the bottom line turning positive after years of continued losses."
Camkite right time , right place , right industry. This is now back to investment status .
Let’s kick past 12p first...
Not complaining Fig but I'll be happier once its at 30p. Will hold for the foreseeable. EBITDA is far to strong for a company not going bust.. imo this has been priced to fail for a long time and the raise which is expected to take place in the next 2 weeks will be at a minimum of 10p.
You must be happy Camkites!
Great news finally, market has been waiting a while for this..
Order book. Strong on the bid and ask has dried up.
This should re rate back into the 20's / 30's over the comping months... anyone taken the time to establish the revised EBITDA ?
NAV 55p & PAR value at 10p ... currently half price sale.
Now lets get back to work GMS. brilliant news IMO.
4 corners - Missunderstanding.
I thought you had written an impairment to the ebtida (how it was writen on your paragraph) not a one off impairment charge...
One off impairment effects the NAV not the ebtida ... $90m impairment will reduce the NAV to around 55p.
Par Value 10p no announcement of reducing Par Value so yes minimum 10p raise which will put the company on good footing moving forward.