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I think there are a couple of things in play in the background that might be overlooked. The drill RNS was clearly carefully worded and must have been constructed days before it was released. Did they avoid going full depth because they had found what they were looking for? Confirmation of oil to be drilled and extracted in the medium to long term? Given that Joe Biden cancelled the Gulf keystone pipeline, would a commercial find have been drilled without more delays through environmental activists galvanised by a sympathetic US Administration? It is all conjecture but we could do with a bit of clarity about what exactly the drill data shows. Surely after all the seismic data and years of research, you wouldn't stop short without a very good reason.
Worth re reading the company strategic plan RNS Feb 16th
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BPC/corporate-and-strategic-update-eoj84hc44h0pvic.html
"Saffron appraisal well due to begin in Q1 2021 which, subject to results, would see BPC seek approvals for field development with up to seven production wells to follow through 2021"
"Suriname appraisal well and Extended Well Test in the Weg Naar Zee Block due to also begin in Q1 2021"
However, further text indicates full drilling prog is over H1 instead of limited to Q1, so more drills expected? :
"The immediate anticipated cost of planned activities in Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname in the balance of H1 2021 (in particular, the drilling of Saffron 2 and the WNZ appraisal well) is approximately $4 million. "
That cost not to bad overall - multiple follow on drill prospects also identified.
The funding machinations continue to be far to opaque and constitute over half the RNS :)
but overall funds confirmed as $15m they have in the bank as of Feb 28th:
"The Company currently has approximately $15 million of available cash (inclusive of the funds to be made available on 28 February 2021 under the Facility)."
Still need to confirm what's left once they have finished paying for Perseverance 1:
"Close-out of remaining costs associated with the drilling of Perseverance #1 (a number of which will not be finalised and become payable for 30-60 days post-well completion) is also ongoing."
So period approaching Mar 8th - April 8th will be total settlement of all P#1 costs.
Interesting just a week later April 16th is the pivotal date when we may expect many aspects to be understood, as outlined in recent BPC comms.
Additional funding sources:
"In addition to securing further draw-downs under the conditional convertible note facility, the Company has access to a range of other potential funding sources, including:
- utilising cash flow generated from production in Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname,
- reserve-based lending facilities in respect of the Company's petroleum reserves in Trinidad and Tobago (which are expected to grow during 2021),
- and generating prospective payments and back cost reimbursements through a farm-in to the licences in The Bahamas."
All comes down to how much cash they actually have and when - many plates spinning though, so Saffron 2 drill success could = enhanced reserves = greater RBL = pays off other debts....
Above all we need to see the full P#1 analysis results and what that means in realistic monetisation terms - or just a long can kick.