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Bassguy with all parties involved, do any have the free cash to do such a deal in the current climate?
BMN do not and GS obviously need the cash and Duferco can get shares with out paying cash. This is the only way and GS aren't friends with anyone.
Duferco do have an energy division...? probably looking to much into it but they could be part of future plans...
this is off website, not sure how up to date.
'In power, DXT has been developing an important off-take portfolio of renewable and conventional energy. A highly qualified team of analysts and meteorologists supports the company in offering competitive Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) and minimizing imbalance risks for its energy producing customers.'
and has this going on in Brazil
'Through Matrix Energia, since 2015 DXT has positioned itself in Brazil’s growing power market as the first independent trading company by volume negotiated in that market. Today, Matrix Energia trades around 7 TWh and acts as a local market maker. The company trades a wide range of products from short-term instruments to long-term PPAs (power purchase agreements) with energy from renewable sources as underlying. In fiscal year ending December 31st2018, Matrix reached an approximate turnover of BR$ 1.8 billion with over 500 active counterparties.'
who knows but guess we will find out soon enough.
GLA
Why harsh, I am actually thinking it is strategic and maybe a kind of backdoor placing to get an interested II on board who will hopefully hold. Maybe Bushveld said "we want you on board", Duferco said "yeah ok but we are not paying market price", then Bushveld said "OK we will do a deal, reduce the Vanchem price and we will pay a big chunk in shares, which you well know will be worth a packet more in 3 years". Duferco say "OK" then internally " hey Doris get Golden Summit on the line I wanna have lunch..." or... Bushveld know GS are about to offload and make the suggestion to pay more in stock over cash to protect the balance sheet a little more and gave Duferco the nod so they accepted a discount.
Either way it is massively convenient for Duferco, there is no comment from the board despite shareholders disquiet but I find it amazing a deal could not be cooked between BMN, Duferco and GS where all would have won instead of just Duferco.
If Duferco are sticky then fine but Jehaisus it has been a torture for current stockholders, that seems on the face of it unnecessary.
Or just a great big coincidence... wont matter once we get some BE business in however
All imo of course. Ill buy more next week again...
bassguy bit harsh, negativity like that is not going to help the situation, perhaps time to jump ship and try and find a better bod elsewhere
Hopefully November will see an improvement in the share price
Have a safe weekend everyone
Not worried particularly about the SP now. More importantly - the company needs to somehow reassure/engineer that the SP will not be facing a similar situation (large seller) this time next year. If that uncertainty remains it will be a drag on any rise.
Bassguy - certainly not happy. I am hoping there is more to it as surely it’s in the BOD’s interest for the SP to be as high as possible? Although they can’t control the SP I would have thought they’d release some sort of news or a buy back...
My guess is that it looks like buyers who had earlier jumped ship are buying back in - is this near the bottom I wonder
The boards silence on this and inactivity suggests they are happy with proceedings. I have felt for some time that deals within deals are going on, there is just no other explanation other than they truly dont give a ****e about UK Pis. A timely buyback to help the sp to protect Investors, even a hint would help ....
Alas it is what it is
First time I have seen you actually comment Sloppy G?
Its been rocky for 2 years :)
I wonder if they actually thought the 15p rise would hold or at least not retrace almost entirely to current levels. I agree it is madness they haven't at least tried to get some news out to create a better baseline price for the conversion. There must be more to this than meets the eye - we don't know what conversations have happened behind the scenes to get Vanchem over the line.
Agreed BHux. Disastrous start to the prevailing 10-day volume weighted average for the upcoming Duferco CLN. Time for the BOD to step up to the plate. Share buy backs....?
The depressed sp may well be the GS overhang but we can never be privy to when that sell off might end. What's certain is that Duferco will benefit directly from this depressed price - are they simply lucky that GS has chosen to unload on the run up to the CLN conversion to shares or are other factors at play to keep the price low? We will make our own inferences.
Someone commented a week or two back that the price would drop and he was predictably chastised (at the time Libero and others were looking to 20p in rapid time). I agreed with the low price view on the run up to conversion date which I believe ends next Friday; the lower the price the more shares Duferco will claim. If there are any shorts held I'd predict a rise into next Thursday / Friday but only if the 10 day average stays on the low side.
My rough calculations for Duferco after next weekend are (please correct me if I'm getting this wrong):
Daily weighted average over 10 trading days to Friday 6th Nov say 12p, less 5% discount = 11.4p
$6.5m CLN @ say £ / $1.30 = £5m divided by 11.4p = close / approx. 44million shares or 3.7% of company.
Certainly lucky timing for Duferco as this time last year when the deal was RNS'd $6.5m would only have got them around 20m shares!
So in my view this will remain rocky through next week but for my wellbeing things better start looking up from 9th Nov. Please.
DaisyDog - "The interesting thing for me is that rises which seem to be predicated on nothing as this one clearly was " - With hindsight - however many thought that the GS sell down had completed. It may well have, however for now it looks like the traders have exploited it. I think we suffer from being a traders share at the moment.
Daisydog - the problem is that the Market Makers do not operate like the Royal Greenwich observatory - i.e. they do not have a big ball on a stick to indicate that a share selling overhang is over. Thus those who are sitting on the sidelines looking for the ideal point to buy back in ahead of the post-overhang rise have the problem of trying to decide if a rise in SP is the actual end or not. Without additional information, this is of course, impossible, and a fools game.
Investing on fundamentals is investing on what is genuinely known. Which is why it is the only real way to properly make a long term investment.
Libero, I cant say I blame you for walking into the MM engineered trap. I have done so in the past. But the savvy investor buys in when the short term blip has settled. Perhaps the REALLY savvy investor sells in the blip and buys back at steady state again. All timing. The interesting thing for me is that rises which seem to be predicated on nothing as this one clearly was are not good times to be buying. FOMO effect is a big driver here I believe.
I actually think most of them are one person
Alfacomp - you're absolutely spot on!
I topped up repeatedly on the way up last week and my last one was around 14p. Do I regret it? Not really, because I'm here for the long term, and actually very happy to have loaded up at what are very much bargain prices.
You could argue my timing could've been better but had we burst through 15p like I believed we would we would been trading at 20p+ by now so it made complete sense at the time.
Am I punter? Certainly not. I may not be a big investor (I'm on a decent wage but I'm only in my 20s and came from a family with no money to give me), but I'm certainly not a punter.
Here for the long-term. Although, having said that, I do not believe 100p+ is as far away as some people think!
Daisydog - that is how AIM works ALL the time - the market makers make a rise and sell short into it. What you missed out is that there may also be many people who bought shares for longer than just a short term rise because they are investing on fundamentals. It is these people who the GS shares are being transferred to and who benefit on a greater scale once the GS overhang is fully worked through.
People need to be prepared to understand how the market operates if they wish to invest in it. Well they do if they don't simply want to get ripped off.
Brgrg69, we had your alter ego Ferring48 on yesterday from the FRR board, should we be expecting looed later?
So, it seems the MMs again managed to work a rise for no particular reason, suckered some short term punters in to buy into a blip and have then taken it down gradually over the next week or two to the trading range. Anyone got a different explanation for the SP in last fortnight?