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Vauxhall Viva - an excellent summary so it seems you have been very effectively been able to educate yourself about Vanadium and VRFBs from a 2018 standing start.
The question of whether Vanadium price spikes can kill the VRFB market is one that I posed at the Vanitec meeting in London in late 2017
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/vanitec-3rd-energy-storage-meeting-part-1-175
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/vanitec-3rd-energy-storage-meeting-part-2-174
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/vanitec-3rd-energy-storage-meeting-part-3-173
In that meeting I asked whether a strong FeV market price could kill the potential VRFB golden goose. I remember Fortune smiling and very few other people saying too much to counter that view. If you read those articles you can see that these guys (Fortune and Alberto) already had good ideas to deal with vanadium price 'volatility' - namely introducing the leasing model.
That model has of course now been introduced by BMN/Avalon and others but the situation is even better for BMN than it was then. Now we stand on the threshold of having long term vertical integration with not just Cellcube/Enerox but also Avalon/Redt - in that scenario where Bushveld Energy stands to garner significant revenue from electrolyte production and further downstream project engagement, plus potentially leasing income BMN have effectively created a walled garden for their favoured VRFB producers wherein they can pretty much guarantee to supply them the Vanadium they need at whatever cost BMN chooses.
If Vanadium prices rise again then the steel manufacturers end up ploughing cash into BMN's coffers thereby further helping to subsidise the development of the VRFB industry. This will drive even more VRFB manufacturers to either the wall, or our camp.
The vertical integration of Vanadium mining and VRFB production is a trick impossible in any other battery technology because of the lack of strong dependence on any single metal. It is this insight that has driven Fortune and Mikhail to build this game-changing long term strategy, which I believe you are all just about to see play out.
Thanks for all the best wishes on my holiday by the way, having a great time here and finding a little extra to keep up with all the developments here.
As a self professed novice on Vanadium in general this is my simplistic view... The lower V prices actually advantage BMN at the moment.
Firstly, BMN are already low cost producers who can profit at the current V price levels. This is compared to competitors who are still green field and can't get off the starting blocks with investment to fund their build or expansion, or others with higher production costs.
While V prices are low it is also beneficial to VRBF's. They will be more attractive to those looking to build energy storage solutions and they will gain traction due to their ability to rival the Li-ion alternatives on prices. Not to mention their other advantages in regards to longer life, safety, being more environmentally friendly to produce & recyclable at end of life.
Personally I would be happier if V prices didn't shoot up as it would allow VRBF's the time to solidify uptake. It would also cement BMN as the go to low cost suppliers in the market. Once VRBF's become as mainstream as Li-Ion then I'd hope for the V prices to rise.
Either way: in my opinion BMN have positioned themselves perfectly to capitalise on either outcome. I've taken the conservative approach in my investment. V prices are bound to rebound from current levels - which the BMN SP will no doubt track, but the VRBF future is potentially huge, and is where the 'free bonus' upside sits. Win, win and still win situation as I see it.
So I must confess that in 2018 I wasn't aware of Vrfbs or even the element Vanadium itself!
I know - I should have learnt my period table!
Anyhow as I wasn't a BMN investor then, I didn't experience the amazing run up in the V price. $140+ per Kg FeV seems an amazing price and just look at the profits it generated for the fledgling BMN.
We are now using those profits to drive the next level of investment and production development that will catapult the company to who knows where in the near future.
Looking back it's said that the price growth was due to speculators and traders buying the tight supply of Vanadium at a time when China was going to enforce higher rebar standards that required Vanadium to strengthen its steel.
It seems to me that the knock on effect was also to bring to a near standstill the development of vrfbs. For instance the enormous 800mwh Dalian Vrfb project was held as it became clear that the V price made it and other projects uneconomic.
At the current rising V price vrfbs remain more economic over the battery life than lithium, which will will need replacing 2 or 3 times during the same lifespan.
Lithium cannot compete on recycling, depth of discharge (100%), longevity, green credentials, running costs/maintenance and crucially fire safety.
Since they can't compete with the quality and suitability of vrfbs, all they currently have is the initial capex economic argument. This has argument was really easy when V prices were high in 2018/19. But in 2020 vrfbs are back in the game on all fronts.
So if you are Tesla and/or the already massive Lithium-ion producer supply chain and have your eye on all the money that you know is heading towards battery storage, how might you try to stop vrfbs again in their tracks? Is it possible for these organisations to work with traders to once again spike the market? Would the leasing model stop this kind of attack if prices were once again over $100?
I suppose what I'm thinking is that if the price spikes, for whatever reason, BMN win in the short term as increasing production at lower costs will deliver huge profits. If prices stay stable then BMN win medium term with electrolyte supply and vrfbs gaining traction.
So whatever they try it's win/win -its just how big we wish that win to be. For me I don't want to see V prices rising too sharply beyond $45 as this will start to spread Vrfb investment doubt. I want to see Vrfbs succeed as the preferred, better solution to grid storage. The next couple of years will be crucial in establishing this technology and getting market share/ public awareness. So yes rising V price is currently just what the doctor ordered and great for BMN and it's shareholders. But I do worry about the potential in this tight supply market for market manipulators. I suppose there are worse problems to have and why am I even concerned after the start to the week that we've had!!
Good luck to all again tomorrow.