OK Richard I will take your bet on Germany making it to the semi finals so how much do you want to bet lets start with a modest figure lets say £10,000 if Germany then go on to win I will double the odds so lets say 5/2 to get to the semis then 5/1 to win the are we on
There's a retrace in every climb.
some other predictions
England wont get to the semifinals in the next world cup, Germany will. Doffer will make at least one post in December with at least 19 consecutive dots................... and will describe the price progress as if watching some fireworks Doffer's next post will be after Monday Arsenal wont win the premiere league this season the Green party will be 4th in the next general election and will outdo the libdems
RE: RE: the past
it depends on the skill of the operator, just because so and so used extrapolation and failed doesnt mean extrapolation doesnt work! they may have been incompetent. most people who use technical analysis use it incompetently, eg most ignore announces ultimately: THE PAST IS THE ONLY GUIDE TO FUTURE PERFORMANCE what else do you have to make any decision! ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS you extrapolate,eg most shopping is return custom,people return to the same provider because its the devil they know,and they EXTRAPOLATE their past experience into the future some always buy Samsung,some always buy Sony,others always buy Apple. people go down the same roads,to the same buildings,they buy the same clothes,they watch the same television programs. the people who run the PLCs also are creatures of habit,as are their customers,so it DOES all extrapolate,the economy is mostly a bunch of robotic sheep and robotic wolves.you CAN predict,because most phenomena are recurrences. but we see with Tescos how each time they change the person at the top,it becomes a different company think about what you said,its completely absurd,ALL DECISIONS are based on the past eg you revisit this forum,because you extrapolate your past experience,you expect the same regulars eg Spottie, beatrootjuice,ARSENAL17,Doffer etc.and I can assure you that most of these WILL post in the next 4 days. beatrootjuice will talk about his work,ARSENAL17 that he wont buy RMG long term,Spottie will always oppose TA! if the past is irrelevant then basically investment is totally random.you may as well put EPIC codes in a hat and select them blindfolded to invest.because all the financial statements and graphs are meaningless past data. dividend investors buy shares based on past dividends,that is an extrapolation of the dividend graph P/E ratios are an extrapolation of annual data anyway,if something DOES work there will always be plenty of misinformation against it as people try to prevent others succeeding. Also I dont just blindly use a technical analysis technique just because it exists,I only use ones where there is a genuine reason why it works. of course if you just select arbitrary techniques and use them you'll lose all your money.The first skill is discretion, selecting which technique to use when.most people have failed already.just as with share trading,the first hurdle is selecting the right broker,and most investors fail.they just sign up to the first one they find,not knowing that there are dozens of brokers, and only a few that are worth signing up to. you can give 2 people the same car,the one will use it to drive 2 houses up the road,the other will drive across the entire EU.its the same equipment.also there are several famous examples of people who made huge amounts of money by predicting financial catastrophes.
RE: the past
I agree with Spottie the market will either trip you up or surprise you in a positive way, but the past is no guide to future performance. Having ditched RSA after the Irish debacle, I bought into boring old FLG (formerly Resolution) purely for the divi and woke up this morning to the news that they are in talks with Aviva and that an offer valuing FLG at 398p a share is on the table! I can live with surprises like that. Let us hope that RMG now settles into a comfortable trading range and just pays its divi on time and at reasonable levels.
RE: the past
@Richard An interesting argument but one that will lose money if put into practice. It's worth thinking about the old investment advertising dictum that the past is no guide to future performance. Markets are not rational and neither are they efficient. Indeed the reason why investment banks hire PhDs in engineering, maths and physics is to help build systems to identify and exploit market inefficiency, such as arbitrage opportunities and short-lived pricing anomoalies. Investor sentiment ebbs and flows - look at RMG! As we are all aware, at times there is panic and fear, at other times there is euphoria and greed (think of the Asian debt crisis, and also the events leading to the run up to the dot.com bubble). Mathematical models and extrapolation can and do lead to heavy loses - think back to the disaster at LTCM. The mathematical models made incorrect extrapolations and predictions. I also recall the interest in behaviour psychology in the 1990s to try to help in investment decisions ("the trend is your friend" and so on). Certainly, behavioural psychology also helps to understand moral hazard and risk taking. And then, of course, exernalities add further to the upset: the Kobe disaster, BP's Gulf spill and so on. It all adds to the spice of investing and making a healthy return.
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