Some things- 1. watch prices that you actually pay,your only true guide to inflation/deflation,since the CPI or whatever they have outside the UK are constantly being fine-tuned so as to disguise true levels.Did I see somewhere talk about yet another re-jig ? 2. the good start/low in summer/recovery in autumn/ending year on a low I should have said was gold's experience in 2013,when I suggested it might repeat this year.Though agaiin it depends on how 2014 will differ from 2013 in news and geopoliticals.Anyway it has repeated so far... 3. The US never needs to take over areas in geopolitics,a subject I read in depth.They instead try to inject chaos to deprive potential rivals the chance to grow too much.This you are seeing in UKR , the S.China Sea,and in Syria. If you live in these places too bad. Get out or die. Saw a prog.about Iraq last night,"Unreported World",a shocking situation for innocent people in daily fear of death-chaos in fact. GL.
Great post Mogo. We appear to be walking a deflation/inflation tightrope and it could swing either way based on what countries do or don't do with the dollar. My partner (who does all the shopping!) says that the cost of food is rising rapidly. As are other essentials. The fed IS trying although those things, but it's main focus to date has been survival. At some point something will give, internally OR internationally. One broker I was reading last night thinks that the Russian situation is a setup that allows the US to effectively hide their failings. The problem with geopolitical wars with china/Russia over Syria, Korea, Egypt etc of last year is their massive economic power. Either could bring down the US and it looks as though they are now working together to get a stranglehold. I think this year will be the last is the Feds control. I believe this summer will be the last low in mining stocks. I expect gold to be jumped upon by everyone with an oz of economic sense. The time is coming.
Present situation. There are bubbles in the main share markets,housing,debts and derivatives.These might be regarded as types of inflation,the result of huge unprecedented QE for over 5 years.So far there has been fairly limited inflation in the economy.Interest rates are low in certain larger countries though much higher in some emerging markets.Unemployment remains a problem in several countries.Bond yields have risen in the last year but appear under control in developed economies. Our problems are that we find difficulty seeing what the main aims of the Fed. are.Despite their attempts for greater clarity, their policy seems to be a mixture of- 1. lowering unemployment 2. supporting the dollar 3. keeping main market shares high 4. preserving low interest rates 5. paying off debt 6. controlling bond rates 7. keeping housing growth 8. attacking gold 9. tapering QE Some of these are obviously going off in different directions,for example a stronger dollar makes it harder to pay off debt though of course also depresses gold.The Fed. says their longer term aim is to raise interest rates but that will threaten the housing markets,maybe hit debts again and could help gold too.Higher interest rates could increase unemployment and shake many companies as loans and the price of jobs will be higher.What the Fed. wants might not be what we get,in fact instead we could get deflation. The pattern of 2014 despite hopes otherwise,MIGHTbegin to resemble that of 2013- a. a quite good start b. a bad summer with some fits and starts c. an autumn recovery d. a year end fall Of course each year has different geopoliticals.Last year it was Iran,North Korea and Syria.This year might be Russia,Ukraine and China-who knows ? Last year also had fiscal cliffs and had no tapering until right at the end,though there were plenty of shenanigans along the way with Bernancke's speeches lol. GL.
You may be familiar with Mike Maloney already. It is very 'Americanised', however the underpinning knowledge and information is easy to understand and sound. Mike is one of the guys I rely on for the fundamentals behind gold. I have others for the technicals. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iFDe5kUUyT0 Brilliant series.
Mogo / shareminator
Have some videos for you that explain everything you need to know about currency/ gold and inflation.
QE & Inflation
Articles addressing why the relationship between QE and inflation http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/why-us-inflation-stays-so-low-amid-high-qe/482471.html http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2013/07/heres-why-qe-isnt-money-printing-and-does-not-cause-inflation-are-not-only-big-fat-lies-but-red-herrings/ http://mises.ca/posts/articles/why-isnt-qe-causing-inflation http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/matthew-kerkhoff/qe-printing-money-inflation http://pragcap.com/why-didnt-qe-cause-high-inflation http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb13q1a1.pdf https://www.mcm.com/assets/publications/unanchored_expectations.pdf http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-inflationary-risk-of-us-commercial-bank-reserves-by-martin-feldstein
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