If Geoff foster from the mail and mr. Graham "hyphen" wood from vsa capital believe their own hype of a takeover still.
up we go
Come on Afren, keep over 1.4 then up to 1.5 and onwards, gla
Afren this morning released an IMS that highlighted a good start to the year on the Ebok field in Nigeria. Production averaged 47.1 kboepd versus FY 2013 guidance of 40-47 kboepd (excluding production from Barda Rash, Kurdistan). This was due to improved production from Ebok as well as higher rates from Okoro (up 17% year-on-year). In our view, this has been a solid quarter of execution from Afren. Based on the strong production performance for the quarter we anticipate that shares will out- perform the market today.  Production. Afren reported production (including associate company production) of 47.1 kboepd; including 33 kboepd net from Ebok (up 17% YoY – well ahead of our FY estimate of 25.7 kbopd, and 9 kboepd from Okoro up 17% YoY – in line with our FY estimate for the field). We forecast FY 2013 production of 45 kboepd (including a contribution of 3 kboepd from Barda Rash, Kurdistan).  Nigeria Developments. Production from Ebok is the main swing to Afren’s FY production target, with the range likely to be determined by development at Ebok, which accounts for c.60% of our 2013 production estimate. There was no update to timing in the statement. At Okoro, the partners have started FEED work on the new well-head platform for the field extension. Afren also announced a farm-down agreement on OPL310 – farming out a 17.14% interest in OPL 30 to Lekoil for a $50m carry on well costs on the Ogo exploration well, which is currently drilling (1p risked NPV, 7p un-risked).  Exploration. Afren had guided to spud wells in Tanzania (on the Tanga Block 1 pps /11 pps risked/un-risked), Ethiopia (on Block 8 – 0.2 pps/ 3.4 pps) and Madagascar (Block 1101 6.9 pps/74pps) by mid year. Rigs for Madagascar and Tanzania have yet to be secured (although an LoI is in place in Tanzania). In Ethiopia, the well is on track to be spud by end Q2.  Kurdistan. Production from Barda Rash continues to be constrained with 18,000 barrels held in storage. On Ain Sifni, the DST at Simrit-2 has completed with the well flowing at rates of 19,641 bopd. The well is now being prepared for an extended well test (EWT). Testing at Simrit-3 is now expected to start having encountered hydrocarbon bearing intervals in Cretaceous, Jurassic and Triassic reservoirs.  Points of guidance. There was no update on FY13 capex guidance at $620m (JPMe $620m) with c.60% expected to be spent on development work. A small q-o-q drop in revenue to $373m from 387m was due to delayed liftings from Okoro and a lower realized oil price, which also impacted profit from continuing operations – $150m (down from $143m). Cash at quarter end was $563m, with net debt of $453m.
Farm out completed. More money $50mil to search for the black stuff in the Tano basin which has a working hydrocarbon system. GLA.
....I think not.Even after today's runs,I will be amazed if we finish up.
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