..behind closed doors it is known it may require some capital , politicians can never keep this private; rumors of a merger with another bank ; ulster bank.. Aib is next to be sold off in portions; after the resolve the xtra 500b shares which are useless and diluting the valuation of aib
on stress tests and markets normalize a bit, irish bank shares are a must for any portfolio in my view. Its fairly clear banking here is a protected sector. Leave aside qe, bond buying, cheap money and all that support that comes through the ecb and just take our government here. The independent central bank of ireland announces measures to put a lid on property prices and protect both banks and borrowers from themselves. Long term good for us shareholders but not great short term. However, many government members and including our minister for social welfare have questioned the severity of a 20% deposit. So to help potential home buyers out Michael noonan announced a dirt free savings account for them in the budget. Win win for the banks. Today Enda undermined the CB as well by suggesting a government fund of sorts to provide the deposit for borrowers. Win win again for banks. Obviously or recent history is well forgotten though.
final pre-weekend crystal balls appearing. I took a piece of Piraeus after it dropped like a stone last week to 1.06 and looked oversold: yesterday up to 1.26 and today levelling back to 1.23 as it is cited in this Spanish "news wire". No mention of any Irish banks in this one though.
The stress test has been carried out over many months. PTSB ( and the government) all ready know they will need extra capital. BOI Should be ok . This morning on Bloomberg TV Steve Miller ( non executive CEO of AIG said he would be confident investing in Europe and mentioned Irish banks in particular. I might be a little bias but if the big boys are sniffing around who knows what will happen
..nikkei up 290 points; Hong Kong a little over 302 points; Ftse and Dax closed well yesterday ; there should be a nice rise in the markets on Wednesday; I suspect boi & AIB will continue to be in positive territory through Friday ; pending the stress test results; boi should break the 0.33 level and move on higher.. That 10% recent fall is slowly going back to a 5% and fully recovered by end of November; also the ecb news is positive for the markets and the recent fall in oil prices; the cool winds of Christmas are fast approaching..
At this moment in time and probably for some time to come the bkir sp has very little to do with how good (or how bad)the bank is preforming. We are at the mercy of the prevailing wind on any particular day. Climbing or falling 3 or 4 or even 5% on a day is not normal ( or shouldn't be anyway) so its just better to hang in there and wait for the seas to settle.
Today's rise is thanks to Mario and his ecb friends. The purchasing of covered bonds started yesterday (French and Italian) and today there's talk of buying cooperate bonds from January next year. One step closer to full qe. There's also some speculation that Europe might implement a 300 billion investment programme. A programme like that is badly needed and makes way more sense than blind qe. The good thing is that Europe seems to have finally realised how precariously the state the economy is at the minute and we are getting some positive action.
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