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Looking for Brexit-proof portfolios? Try drugs, alcohol and tobacco

Wed, 29th Jun 2016 14:32

By Tricia Wright and Vikram Subhedar

LONDON, June 29 (Reuters) - Health, safety and even sometraditional 'sin stocks' have already shown signs of weatheringBrexit-related storms in European equity markets over the pastweek.

The flight to safety in the aftermath of last week's Brexitvote is sending investors scurrying back into healthcare andconsumer-related stocks that have shielded them from nearlyevery big market dislocation of the past five years.

On Wednesday, European healthcare became the first majorregional sector to recover all its post-Brexit losses, helpedlargely by the big UK bellwethers. Food and beverage stocks arepoised to follow.

Stocks such as AstraZeneca PLC, Diageo PLC and British American Tobacco PLC are up between 7percent and 11 percent since last Thursday's close.

They have led the broader market's recovery after more than$3 trillion was knocked off the value of global stocks in thetwo-day selloff that followed Britain's unexpected decision toleave the European Union.

The combination of dependable profits, dividends andexpectations that the weaker pound and euro will spur earningsupgrades for firms that sell mostly to consumers outside the UKand Europe has underpinned their resilience.

"There are three things at work but I think the first is thereach for dollar earnings," said Eric Moore, who runs the MitonIncome Fund from London.

"In a world where GDP is probably slowing everywhere,irrespective of Brexit, there's just more uncertainty," saidMoore, adding the relative stability of the so-called defensivesectors, whose profits are less reliant on economic growth,brightens their appeal.

The rally in bluechip healthcare and food and beveragestocks has even pushed the UK's FTSE 100 to less than apercent below its pre-Brexit level. In US dollar terms the indexis still more than 10 percent lower.

Outside of the UK, German real estate has found favour.Shares of Vonovia and Deutsche Wohnen areboth higher than where they were before last week's vote.

Both companies are focused on residential properties inGermany where low rates have contributed to steady price riseswhile low vacancy rates have put a floor under rents.

Gold mining stocks Rangold Resources and Fresnillo are up more than 20 percent as demand for the preciousmetal surged.

For a list of major European stocks that are above wherethey closed last Thursday see: http://reut.rs/295Lkwm

Goldman Sachs, which slashed its economic forecasts for theUK and Europe after the vote, now expects earnings in 2016 forthe Stoxx 600 to contract 5 percent.

Still, with German 10-year bund yields below zero the U.S.bank says equities offer value compared with other assets.

But given worries over the health of European banks andgrowth Goldman warns against broad-based buying and recommendsinvestors stick with food, beverage and tobacco and healthcareshares.

"The attractions of the more defensive or stable parts inequities are clear," said Goldman strategists in a note toclients.

(Reporting by Vikram Subhedar and Tricia Wright, additionalreporting by Tina Bellon in Frankfurt; Editing by Mike Dolan andToby Chopra)

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