* U.S. equity index futures mixed, little changed
* U.S. initial jobless claims +498k vs +540k estimate
* Euro STOXX 600 index down ~0.4%
* Dollar slips; gold up, crude dips
* U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.59%
May 6 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of
markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your
thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
RETAIL INVESTORS' STOCK FEVER COOLING DOWN? (0913 EDT/1313
GMT)
Data from BofA Global Research this week has shown that
retail investors remain quite upbeat about the U.S. stock
market's prospects.
Retail was the only group among its clients to have bought
U.S. stocks for the third week in a row, making them net buyers
for 10 straight weeks, whereas hedge funds were engaged in
"extreme selling" activity.
That surely marks a stark contrast, but looking elsewhere
signs have emerged that amateur traders' stock market honeymoon
could be about to finish, as they start spending more money in
the real world amid a reopening of the economy.
Check out this chart, courtesy of Barclays, showing that
call option buying by U.S. retail investors is cooling:
"Retail sentiment is very bullish, but equity buying is
losing fizz…," said the UK bank in its latest strategy pack.
As a reminder, households are the biggest investors in the
U.S. and own 37% of the stock market, almost 4 times the 10% of
retail equity ownership in Europe, Barclays noted.
(Danilo Masoni)
*****
DOES BITCOIN HAVE THE S&P 500 ON BORROWED TIME? (0900
EDT/1300 GMT)
Bitcoin's battering off its mid-April peak may present a
problem for the U.S. equity market. This because since late
2017, Bitcoin's twists and turns have led have led a number of
significant turns in the S&P 500.
Indeed, whether crypto-action is a sign of speculative
excess, or building animal spirits, Bitcoin has made its turns
ahead of SPX highs and lows over this period:
Since late 2017, five of the six worst SPX declines
(averaging 17%) came in the wake of SPX tops that occurred
roughly 1-6 weeks (average 3 weeks) after a Bitcoin high.
Meanwhile, SPX's lows in late-2018, early-2020, and
late-2020 were all formed 2 weeks after Bitcoin troughs.
As stands, since Bitcoin topped in mid-April at $64,895.22,
the SPX's high of 4,218.78 came about 2 weeks later. The
benchmark index is since only down around 1%.
That said, if Bitcoin's mid-April high remains intact, the
SPX may actually be on borrowed time.
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
FOR THURSDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EDT/1300
GMT - CLICK HERE:
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views
expressed are his own)
Barclays (BARC)
