PRAGUE, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Central European currencies edged lower on Monday with markets cautious after global oil prices spiked following attacks on crude facilities in Saudi Arabia, although losses were limited with expectations the region's growth and rates can add support.
Global markets got some relief in early trading on Monday after the weekend attacks when oil producer Saudi Aramco assured some clients there would be no shortage in supplies. But international benchmark Brent crude was still up 8%.
The Hungarian forint lost up to 0.3% and was bid at 331.90 to the euro by 0852 GMT, leading the region's losses, but the battered currency stayed well off a record low of 333.46 hit last week.
The Czech crown, Polish zloty and Romania's leu dipped around 0.1%.
Stock markets in the region were mixed, with Warsaw's blue-chip WIG20 down 0.4% while Prague was propped up by gains for its biggest stocks CEZ and dual-listed Erste Group Bank.
Analysts said the region was buoyed by a steady euro/dollar and investors were looking ahead to a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting this week where policymakers look likely to cut interest rates again amid escalating global trade tensions.
Further Fed easing would follow a European Central Bank rate cut last week and new stimulus measures. With central Europe's rate setters in wait-and-see mode thanks to economies still outpacing the euro zone due to strong domestic demand, analysts say the expected Fed action would give a boost to currencies this week via a weaker dollar.
"(The region's currencies) should be rather stable," said Jan Vejmelek, chief economist and head of research at Komercni Banka. "Interest rate differentials can be a key driver."
"The region is still doing quite well (in its economies)," he added.
Poland, the region's biggest economy, sees a string of data releases this week, starting with net inflation data on Monday.
PKO analysts said other releases will continue to point to a good consumer mood.
"Monday data will indicate a stabilisation (or even perhaps acceleration) of core inflation in August, showing that costs and demand pressure together is increasingly affecting domestic price growth," PKO said.
Polish 10-year bond yields were bid 9 basis points up.
CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT
1052 CET
CURRENCIES
Latest Previous Daily Change
bid close change in 2019
EURCZK= Czech crown 25.8550 25.8400 -0.06% -0.57%
EURHUF= Hungary forint 331.9000 331.0050 -0.27% -3.26%
EURPLN= Polish zloty 4.3248 4.3187 -0.14% -0.81%
EURRON= Romanian leu 4.7375 4.7343 -0.07% -1.76%
EURHRK= Croatian kuna 7.3960 7.3933 -0.04% +0.19%
EURRSD= Serbian dinar 117.6200 117.6000 -0.02% +0.58%
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET
Latest Previous Daily Change
close change in 2019
.PX Prague 1052.97 1050.1700 +0.27% +6.73%
.BUX Budapest 40373.22 40285.21 +0.22% +3.15%
.WIG20 Warsaw 2191.58 2200.95 -0.43% -3.74%
.BETI Bucharest 9263.02 9231.85 +0.34% +25.45%
.SBITOP Ljubljana 856.69 856.02 +0.08% +6.52%
.CRBEX Zagreb 1885.33 1883.68 +0.09% +7.81%
.BELEX15 Belgrade 757.54 758.47 -0.12% -0.54%
.SOFIX Sofia 577.39 578.65 -0.22% -2.87%
BONDS
Yield Yield Spread Daily
(bid) change vs Bund change in
Czech Republic spread
CZ2YT=RR 2-year 1.3380 0.1420 +204bps +15bps
CZ5YT=RR 5-year 1.1080 -0.0760 +184bps -7bps
CZ10YT=RR 10-year 1.4340 0.0400 +190bps +6bps
Poland
PL2YT=RR 2-year 1.5500 -0.0090 +225bps -1bps
PL5YT=RR 5-year 1.9030 -0.0050 +263bps +1bps
PL10YT=RR 10-year 2.1560 0.0740 +263bps +9bps
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENT
3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interbank
Czech Rep 2.16 2.09 2.00 2.14
Hungary 0.27 0.33 0.37 0.00
Poland 1.74 1.72 1.71 1.72
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices
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