Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Although perhaps over exposed on HYR and a good 25% down on investments, can�t help still feeling relaxed over long term. Last and recent RNS positive and seems way over sold
After the price being marked down. Pretty much at the year low to sell.
Sells still outweigh buys, but someone seems to be building up a stake here. There were the two 75k buys early yesterday, now more today. Maybe a deal is close? After all, one of the NEDs is close to someone whose previously had to defend against charges of insider dealing.
Looks like a few stop losses have been taken out.
someone doing this on purpose lots of 50k trades
meant 4000 pounds
how can 400 pounds of trade bring the sp down
From a management accountant perspective, the key factor is fixed v variable cost against cost v income. For HYR, where I remain invested, the biggest factor is the capacity underutilization of plant. IF they can get enough feedstock to keep the plant running at 90% capacity, they will be generating very decent cashflow. The final results suggested that Canton is currently running at as close to 100% as a manufacturing process can get, now post y-e results. Any deal that could see this being sustainable going forward would be a game changer for the company. Everything is in place, except the raw material input. Everything else is window dressing imo. I don't fully understand why they have not been able to secure this before. There are alternative processes, sure, but hopefully the carbon credit angle will give HYR a competitive edge. Otherwise, well, not all best in class techs succeed. Don't want to be down, but they need a deal.
I'm not an accountant so if I'm wrong. someone can correct me but after looking through the results, with a little more detail, I estimate they need around $1ml - $1.5ml to cover central costs. This year, although starting off with lower volumes, it will be an improvement over last, if they continue as they are. I don't have enough info to make an estimate but if I were to hazard a guess, they would be doing well to get EBITDA in $750k-$1ml range.... with favourable Forex (2017, a 300k hit), further reduction in costs, and better feedstock supplies. If I recall a while back, I posted that part of the reason they haven't had the supplies from G&S, might be logistical in nature, and the RNS bears that out. The cost to get supplies to Canton from the various regions, don't always make them a variable option. One of the strategic reasons to add another site, was to specifically utilise the stocks in question. The EPA approval for unlimited PCB treatment might open up a few more feedstock opportunities (small o). Shame they can't import the stuff into the US, as countries would almost be giving it away. As to Mr Black, and our recent debate. All his actions to date, suggest he does not have a nefarious agenda. The interest due on his loans, is currently being rolled up, and he's extended the term date to June 2019. Yes there is always the possibility that with an aim share, something happens, or is decided that leaves the small holder out in the cold but I think we'd all be colder without his support. The strategic review mentions growth strategies, not a review on whether something like delisting is a good idea. Never say never but we're pretty close to covering all central costs, it'd be a kick in the teeth if it happened now. The 7.6ml deal with an OEM is significant, and I'm sure there will be more to come. The clearing of historic carbon credits, mean they are free to approach industry players with a carbon credit proposition, as part of any new relationship (closed-loop etc). The competition for feedstock will not disappear, as long as there are other applications but the CCs should play a bigger part going forward.
Carbon credits in AUS selling for $18... https://reneweconomy.com.au/australias-hidden-carbon-price-trading-nearly-18-57648/
Waiting for steep dive to add more.
A high probability to be a institutional grade stock. There is not many junior aim companies that are selling carbon credits in the market.... Research facts by CC: The price of carbon credits has almost doubled since 2016 in Australia where Hydrodec has big presence. Source: https://reneweconomy.com.au/australias-hidden-carbon-price-trading-nearly-18-57648/
of 100k shares not showing yet. Had to call bookie and do an NT, they really didn't want em. Got fed up holding too many of these and just watching money disappear with the same old painful excuses.
Well, the plot thickens. But all speculation. My main worry in the past was that HYR runs out of cash and mr black picks up HYR cheap like he did OSS. With the funding he has I’m sure he would be able to turn HYR profitable quite quickly like he did with slickers. The two companies would certainly run well together. But as I said, all speculation.
The RNS state it's his AIM portfolio, so presumably not his main investments or activity on other major bourses. Does anyone know what other AIM shares he holds?
Especially if the portfolio contains a basket of all or some of his main investments. The RNS wouldn't specify such detail. The kind of debt vehicle in question, isn't used so much here, given the highly developed debt market we have access to. There have been past examples where holders have kept this secret, for underhand means, if not illegal.
He's hardly going to want to delist having just pledged his stock as security for a loan. His creditors would be rightly pretty pi**ed off. Can't ever know, but I took it to read that he's going to be developing something else, and using his pf to fund it.
Hi David.I. Not sure about the delist route. I was referring to buying the remaining stock. A major holder like Mr Black, if he were to go past 30%, he would have to offer at least the last 12 months high. My understanding is the board don't have to take the offer. Sounds like the delist approach would not trigger the same mechanism but can't see Mr Black delisting, or getting approval. If he defaulted on his revolving credit line, the bank maybe more likely to do that. Again, is it a given that the votes would back such a move.
Hi Nastid, I think you will find that on aim if Mr black wishes to delish he only needs 75% share holder approval, and only needs to give 20 days notice, also he does not have to give any premium to the price on the day he gives notice, different rules from main market, happened to me with GTL some years back. Could take us out at today's price, now that I think would be very cheap as he already owns nearly 30%. If the rules have changed on aim then please correct me. Could not sell any of my hyr shares today,as I wanted to top up Taylor wimpy, will try again tomorrow.
To clarify, at a minimum, any bid (relating to the 12 month high) can't be lower than the above, as far as I'm aware regarding the rules.
It's nothing new. Ever since Mr Black has been a backer, there is always a chance that if he wanted to, it'd probably happen. The counter argument, is that he could've got the company a lot sooner and cheaper, if he stopped backing the co. Also, having a big backer, can act as a protection against low outside bids. One poster mentioned that dodgy directors use this charge on shares, as a way to keep the funds and walk away... but the logic of recently lending cash, interest free, seems counter intuitive. Also, if the portfolio includes all his different holdings, it's a less likely scenario. Until Jan 2019, the floor price is 3.1p'ish. Surely the easiest and cheapest way to get the company, would be to not roll over existing credit lines. The revolving credit seems more likely for capital expenditure, for his many interests, of which Hydrodec is one. I've always appreciated his backing, obviously but at the same time, it's foolish not to openly debate such things, as they happen often enough, and not to the benefit of small holders.
Funny, I said just the same thing a year ago. Was not taken well. Question is, if mr Black was to buyout the company, would he be paying for it, or getting it cheap like slicker?
Is he setting himself up to take us private, just my opinion but I think he is.he could take us out at 2p if he wishes. Results ok but not great, need more positive news, as I am starting to lose faith in them.
My take regarding Mr Black, I think his actions are actively to prevent unnecessary dilution. Granted I imagine he has the funds to buy into an offering but there's a level where it just hurts your holding. Funding for explicit capital expenditure and concrete growth potential, yes, treading water, no. A small cash injection with no additional interest, tells me he is confident in the operational level of the company. Especially pertinent now that David Alan Dinwoodie is a non exec, although I do have some trepidation if there were any lapse in progress, given the relative position of it's most generous backer. ... I just saw Mr Black switched nominee accounts, with a charge on his entire portfolio... giving a revolving credit facility... be interested to know how big and what it might be used for.... enough to buy a company with a great product? Then there is Slickers, I'm sure he has some big plans. Although it's frustrating that the UK side recovered so quickly after selling, I'm glad he's done a good job, I bet the employees think the same.
A good solid RNS in my book. The building blocks are falling into place and Andrew Black is certinaly still committed with increased captial with zero interest - no dilution to shareholders...I especially liked this snippet from the RNS: Focused on generating new partnerships and securing additional feedstock in the USA - approaches to US utilities have been initiated given the sale of carbon offset credits which, uniquely in the market, provide opportunities for utilities to partner with Hydrodec of North America to meet sustainability goals. Key to delivering consistent demand for feedstock. We are turning the corner.. GLA