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Given everything that is known, the SP has become a farce.
I don't know what it will take for the market to become more rational. Enough said until that moment arrives.
Every share trade now regardless of whether it is a buy or sell is causing the share price to drop. What is the purpose of this strategy ? Who is the ultimate beneficiary ?
Our now former NED made a brief television appearance last night on one of the news channels in his capacity as a former director at Iceland (?), commenting on the current situation at Tesco.
Analysts at N+1 Singer expect pre-tax profit of £31.5m for the year ending March 2019, giving EPS of 27.7p, compared with £26.8m and 23.4p in FY2018.
I lifted this from the Investors Chronicle article published just after our final results in June 2018. It would appear that N + 1 Singer are expecting a higher PBT than the company itself.
Our seller continues to reduce, suppressing the share price back to pre trading statement levels. When will this turn positive ? There is certainly nothing more that either the company or our board of directors can do to change the current sentiment, they have done as much as could be expected.
It appears to me from the Edison note that the "Retail (discontinued)" line does refer to the Sainsbury active kids scheme.
Edison's DCF valuation moves up while its peer comparison valuation moves down. The resulting "blended valuation" is still a long way above the current share price.
Someone selling into strength today, though, by the look of things.
The 1H £5.5m gain on derivatives was down to the exchange rate at the balance sheet date. i.e. they marked their forward foreign exchange contracts to market, as I understand it.
Whether they record another derivatives gain, or a loss and whether any loss is big enough to wipe out the 1H gain, will depend on the actual exchange rate at the end-year balance sheet date (29th March presumably). Given current Brexit issues, a lot of uncertainty on what that $/£ rate is, I would suggest.
Yes I accept that the underlying performance is the measurement by which the market assess progress. A profit is a profit however so the actual PBT for 2018/19 is likely to be in excess of £30m.
Despite these encouraging figures investors still appear to be reluctant to buy in. Hopefully over the course of the next week or so the good news will stimulate some positive buying.
Skindle - the £17.1m 1H pbt included a £5.5m fair value gain on derivatives.
The adjusted 1H pbt strips this gain out and was £11.6m and this is the number that should be compared with the £26.0m-£28.0m analyst forecast range that they quote, I think. So if they're coming in towards the top end, i.e. £28m, that is a very nice 2H.
Very good news on the core debt,in 3 years or less,it should be wiped out completely,onwards and upwards.
Net debt down by almost a third, tidied up business activities over past year, PE under 10. Just needs some decent growth now I guess.
Very happy with this update. Core debt coming down so significantly is a huge and unexpected bonus.
Will the SP finally start to reflect the company's true value?
That’s a new one on me 1GW_. Very strong trading statement, especially the core debt reduction from £80.9m on the 29.09.18 to c£54m on 31.12.18. I was expecting a “better than expected” report rather than “at the upper end” having declared a £17.1m PBT for the half year.
Very nice. Hopefully good enough to give the share price a boost. I don't remember seeing before that part of Education was being treated as "discontinued", other than a statement on the Sainsbury Active Kids scheme.. Did I miss that?
A sparkling trading statement from Boohoo today and I was initially surprised to see the share price drop until I discovered that their P/E ratio is 70 compared to our 9. The Boohoo market cap is around £2b compared to our £173m. You have to achieve some huge revenue and PBT to justify those values.
Only two weeks until the third quarter trading statement. Meanwhile the share price is moving in a very curious way. Today was a case in point. The first trade of the day was 25,000 shares bought at 210 pence. From that moment on the price just fell away despite there being more buys than sells. There doesn’t appear to be much appetite for this particular company at the moment. I hope that this is not a prelude to a negative statement.
Yesterday in the Bank of America position, converting a small amount of voting rights through financial instruments to voting rights attached to shares. So BAML were still holding 7.044% of the shares as of the 31st December 2018.
Bank of America, Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley would appear to be acting as market makers. Could this be an attempt by Sports Direct to buy the remaining shares of the business that they don’t already own ? I’m not convinced by this as SD through Mr Ashley are actively trying to save the High Street from those evil online retailers. Could this be Mr Ashley hedging his bets or is there another interested party looking to buy the company given the recent strong half year report. It is significant that several of our board directors Chose to increase their holdings recently.
Somehow I managed to miss the BAML holdings notices. So that's another 7.2% which may or may not be linked to one of the other holdings. If not, then following Morgan Stanley's departure (< 3%) that's 88% accounted for.
Toscafund appear to have got rid of at least 13% (18.3% in the annual report so 18% threshold down to below the reportable threshold as of 19/12, assume 5% threshold). Morgan Stanley (5.9% as of 19th Dec) plus BAML (7.2% as of 17th Dec) is about the same total of 13%. Was the Credit Suisse position (11.5% of which 10% fi - cash-settled swaps) also linked to this? MS and CS are now gone (below threshold) but BAML is still holding - on behalf of whom?
With that Credit Suisse notification, the numbers start to look a bit more plausible. It seems to me, on the basis of holdings notices and annual report, we now have:
29.9% Sports Direct
18.7% Schroders
10.0% FIL
5.8% City Financial
4.9% Henderson
4.5% R&M
4.1% Aberforth
3.2% Ennismore
For a total of 81% excluding any residual Toscafund holding and also excluding today's Morgan Stanley notification, which I assume is probably linked somehow to one of the existing holdings. If MS is holding on its own account or on behalf of an interest not already in the above list then that would take identified holdings to 87% of voting rights.
To note that some of the sub-5% holdings (e.g. R&M I think) are already below the notifiable threshold and so they could have decreased from the number shown in the list without giving a holdings notice.
Have now sold their holding back below notable levels. Were they merely acting as market makers ? I have lost count now as to who has what. I agree with 1GW_, the board should serve notice on all larger shareholders to declare their holdings.
Thats another 5.89%,that has to come from somewere,these are big sums of cash that other companies are investing in us,the share price does look cheap as chips at the moment.
Nice start on a generally quiet morning.
I suspect Toscafund is subject to the 5%/10% notification thresholds rather than the 3%,4%,5%,6%,...
- based on their notifications in talktalk, where they first declared at 5% and then at 10% as far as I can see.
So this would mean their recent notification here is for going under 5% rather than under 3%, although they could still be out completely
Apologies, I misled slightly in my previous post. The major share trading activity started just after the trading statement was released on the 17th October, which may account for why this statement contained more information than usual. My guess is that Toscafund had already informed the board of their intention to sell.
Well, that is a surprise. I think in this instance the notifiable threshold is 3%. Let us assume that Toscafund have sold all of their shares. That accounts for 18.3%. If you include the 1.46% increase of Schroders and the acquisition by the four new larger shareholders, 29.058% has changed hands since the half year report. So there is still 10.758% of shares whose seller we have not yet discovered.
Toscafund and Schroders both colluded to sell a large part of their holdings to Sports Direct to involve them back in September 2015. It certainly looked at the time as if SD were interested in acquiring the whole business but when SD proposed that Mr Ashley take over as chairman, both Schroders and Toscafund voted against the move. The relationship between the three shareholders appeared to cool after this.
Ok thanks 1GW,we might have all got it wrong about spd,they might not have even sold a single share,the saga continues.