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Five years ago this was over £2 .00. Can you believe it?
They will get planning permission, but there's a risk it might not happen on Friday as there seems to be quite a few last minute issues coming up, according to the planning portal. Id give it a 70% chance of getting PP on Friday.
The project is not funded by any stretch. Id say a good 20m is needed to get them to the point of building it , then they'll need project capital to actually build it. Too big too soon imho.
Is it funded? If no planning permission is granted this will fall 50-60% imo and then it’s pretty much impossible for them to raise any worthwhile cash to continue. Risk of total capital loss too high for me after researching it
Nachez is their biggest project.
If no planning permission is granted do you guys think vls is finished given this is there biggest project? The risk of losing 60-70% is its refused is too big a chance to take imo given they won’t be able to raise enough cash to keep going if it’s refused. Make or break really the planning permission total capital loss or a glimmer of hope if it’s approved. GL all that are holding hope it’s not a wipeout
Exactly my point Thurg. They have not done the small scale testing (MSW to fuels). This is the issue they will have when it comes to getting the banks technical advisors happy.
EXPB - How can the shareholders stop it? At some point you have to make the leap from small scale experiment to full blown plant. The question is do investors believe that Velocys has the expertise and knowledge to do this. The fact that they are all still on board suggests they have! Do you have another explanation for their loyalty given the major players involved?
If the funding does provide a return, your short gets a lot more expensive expatbrat
The aforementioned can afford it, however shareholders wont allow it at such an early stage. Until more progress is made on engineering to further de-risk the project, substantial funds will not be forthcoming. As I say repeatedly on here, Velocys are miles away from commercial activity. There simply has not been enough water under the bridge to attract funding of this magnitude.
As for the stalwarts 'jumping ship', why would they? The SP is so depressed, the funds theyd release from doing so would barely cover the legal costs of doing so. Whats needed is a large investment by an AI and these funds should go directly toward the demonstrating the fundamentals of the waste to fuel process and paying for the project engineering. These are the pieces of the pie that at lacking at this time - but such funding has a high risk of not providing a return, so its a tough gig to find n outfit prepared to spend.
Is it your contention that potential major investors (Shell, BA et al) can't afford it or won't afford it? Unlike you, all the major interests are still "on board"and showing no signs of abandoning the ship. I grant you that planning refusal might well change matters, but I would disagree with your view on matters if approval is given.
the Project is years away from being 'fully funded'. Fully funded means someone has committed 150m cash and arranged debt to the tune of 300m GBP, both of which are extremely unlikely at this stage. The best case, should PP be granted and followed with an announcement, is that a few more million GBP has been pumped in to finish all the engineering.
Getting PP doesn't affect the fundamentals - its a box ticking milestone. The next one is the engineering which is this area the banks will scrutinise. The biggest challenge for VLS on this front is a lack of demo scale 'MSW to Fuel' experience. Yes, their FT works, but they've not tested the entire process.
Planning hearing is scheduled to take place on 29 Nov.
It looks to me that the planning application will be held anytime up to 29 November and not actually on 29 November is this correct?
Thanks I’m just trying to work out how Likley it is that permission will be granted seems a good application on the face of it, my worry is share price collapse if it’s not granted
IMHO it very much depends on what Velocys and its backers say subsequent to the decision, but if an announcement that the project will be fully funded is made, 2p would be a starting point. I suspect that many that have continued to hold VLS shares would hope that 20p might be more a more realistic figure. All those IIs must be hoping for a considerable upturn.
If planning permission is granted on Friday do we think this has a chance of getting back to 2p?
The VLS web site has been updates and the AIM rule 26 fact sheet now lists major investors as:
Shareholders owning more than 3% of the Company at 14 November 2019 were as follows:
Ervington Investments Limited (21.41%)
Lansdowne Partners (21.16%)
Amati AIM VCT plc (10.36%)
CQS Directional Opportunities Master Fund Ltd (9.32%)
Jarvis Investment Management (4.30%)
Janus Henderson Group (4.20%)
Hargreaves Lansdown PLC (4.13%)
It also says:
As at 14 November 2019 there were in issue 643,756,100 shares of Velocys plc, none of which is held in treasury.
At the time of the last analysis of our share register on 14 November 2019, approximately 53.6% of our shares were classed as being not in public hands since these are held either by shareholders who own more than 10% of the Company or by Company directors.
Add in the minor players listed and you can add a further 21.9% that are not on the market. This means that only 25% of shares (160.9 million) are available for PIs!! It would appear that Henderson haven't sold their entire holding hence the drip of sells onto the market which seem to be covered by buyers. MMs anaging a large disposal would seem to fit the picture and explain the way the SP has been moving of late. Next Friday is the crunch day - planning permission obtained and the whole picture changes.
The rns says their holding is now below 5% , so still in the game , for now !