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Hi UrbanFox you come up with some good info, and the figures from your previous (long) post identifies a discrepancy between SP and 'value' of asset. This investor (me) would like to know why there is such a discrepancy, and while I have no interest in dissing the whole tri star narrative the whole dragged out story has gone on for a very long time.
Yes there is some dealmaking going on, but the nuts and bolts end is still far from clear, feed stock, production and sales.
Your Roskill summary gives a good insight into matters. Yes China production is dropping off, but rather than a big empty gap to be filled, Russia and Tajikistan are in there...NOT us!
Also i believe gold by-product was coming to SMPT from Olimpiada...an antimony competitor...."sure you can have the gold-sludge......and btw, here are some antimony customers for you too!!!!
As demonstrated I have zero knowledge of these markets, but given the recent comments from RVS I think a clear understanding of our place in these markets is essential for value to be put back into our shares.
Antimony Global Outlook Strong
In answer to RVS' Statement today: 5. The market for antimony is a separate issue. The world does not expect an additional 20 thousand tons of antimony trioxide.
In fact as a result of a significant shift in supply away from China, due to a stricter regulatory regime and plant closures, demand has not been higher for years. Please review the summary global outlook from Roskill below. The opportunity for to fulfil global supply is right now...
Summary
Antimony is mostly consumed in flame ******ants and lead-acid batteries. Together these end-uses account for more than 80% of antimony demand and trends in these two critical applications thus shape market dynamics.
China has by far the largest antimony resources and has, as a result, been the world’s centre for antimony mine and refined production. While China remains the leading primary producer in 2020, declining reserves, market consolidation and strict regulatory inspections across China leading to closures of facilities has caused a significant decrease in Chinese output from over 80% of global production in 2010 to around 50% in 2020. As a result, China has sourced growing volumes of primary antimony units through imports.
Russia and Tajikistan are the next largest producers of antimony after China, both ramping up production in recent years to fill the gap left by China and causing global supply to rebound in 2018 and 2019. In 2018, Russian supply of antimony leapfrogged ahead of Tajikistan with Russian company Polyus, one of world’s leading gold producers, supplying by-product antimony from its Olimpiada mine equivalent to 15% of global mined antimony supply.
The outlook for non-metallurgical antimony demand is positive when considering construction and plastics trends, which suggests demand for flame ******ants will increase. Antimony demand in glass is far smaller but could potentially enjoy high growth rates due to use in photovoltaic panel production. With a modest growth in demand for antimony in non-metallurgical end uses expected, Roskill envisages that demand could start to outstrip current supply levels over the longer term.