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measuredd - totally right.
It's 2 fold - The S106 only allows 10% of air traffic to be cargo. With zero passenger flying booked in from October it's only the flying clubs and other incidental air traffic making up the numbers. Nowhere near what's required though. It will be interesting to see how the local council address this.
On the passenger side, the primary attraction for Southend is that all the others are full up at peak time. We all know that this is not the case now, and won't be for a good few years yet. Unfortunately, Stobart / Esken cost base doesn't align with the overspill model, instead needing to hit 6-7m passengers PA to make it work. In order to achieve these numbers will roughly mean a landing or take off every 3 minutes from 6:30 - 23:00 all day every day, 7 days a week during the summer, and every 8 minutes during the winter. This without any of the cargo or other planes coming in. The airport itself does not have the infrastructure to support that , neither is there the local road infrastructure to support it. Add on to this that it is surrounded by housing, the rising environmental and noise issues and it's difficult to understand or comprehend the direction Esken are taking this airport.
The cargo on it's own won't be able to sustain keeping the lights on for long. It simply helps slowing the cash burn and prolonging the life support for a few extras months. The only way Southend Airport will remain Southend Airport is a massive debt write off and start again with the basics. - IMHO. Not sure that whether or how that could involve Esken.
Cargo is definitely helping to keep the lights on but they are restricted by the S106 and a set number of passenger movements against cargo. Pre Brexit they served Rome, Milan, Madrid & Leipzig, now just the latter.
Whilst passenger travel normalises and hopefully the overflow sets up some nice commercial opportunities for Esken. Don’t forget they converted and grew their import / export freight part. With containers up in cost 500% and not enough capacity, many organisations needed to switch to air freight. Whilst the big bucks are in the passenger growth, the freight growth should be helpful to generate more income and slow the cash burn. Let’s hope we get a break (T5) is IAG’s hub, how about Virgin make Southend their hub. :)