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Great also Optiva have a much higher Target Price of where we are ie risked 6p and unrisked 12.1p, similar to Tennyson. Very interesting the fact that they have USD7.5mio cash with USD2.5mio set aside for potential additional costs for Buffalo and USD5mio working capital with which to fund its ongoing strategy of pursuing further value adding acquisitions. Don't think will stay below 2.6p placing and a £22mio mcap for long.
Although several incumbent technical
risks remain which could justify a more aggressively risked outcome such as only the 1C
resources being certified as reserves, we believe that an outcome even half the level of
our preliminary assessment would deliver a highly attractive return equivalent to
almost four times ADV’s initial investment which we calculate as a conservative
valuation of 6p per share, a substantial uplift on the current share price.
Company update
Advance Energy (ADV) has completed the acquisition of a 50% equity interest in
Carnarvon Petroleum Timor Unipessoal Lda, a subsidiary of ASX-listed Carnarvon
Petroleum which holds a 100% working interest in the Buffalo PSC offshore Timor-
Leste. Since the completion of a successful placing to raise £21.8m (c.US$30.0m) of new
capital, ADV has also transferred the consideration of US$20m payable to Carnarvon
under the terms of the Buffalo Subscription Agreement. These funds will now be used
to fund an appraisal well on the Buffalo field in order to convert existing contingent oil
resources into reserves and instigate a full field development programme.
In December 2020, ADV’s shares were suspended from trading pending the conditional
acquisition of an indirect interest of up to 50% in the TL-SO-T 19-14 Production Sharing
Contract (the Buffalo PSC) located offshore Timor-Leste. Under the terms of the deal,
ADV agreed to subscribe for up to 50% of the equity in a JV with Carnarvon Petroleum
Timor Unipessoal Lda for a consideration of up to US$20m.
On 31 March 2021, ADV announced that it had conditionally raised £21,842,600 before
expenses (c.US$30.03m) through the issue of 840.1 million new shares at 2.6p per share.
With net proceeds estimated at £20.0m (US$27.5m), Advance Energy TL Limited (AETL), a
wholly owned subsidiary of ADV, has now transferred the US$20m payable to Carnarvon
under the Buffalo Subscription Agreement.
This subscription will fully fund the B-10 appraisal well on the field, expected to be drilled
in H2 2021 and intended to convert 2C contingent resources of 34.3 mmbbls into 2P
reserves following re-certification and instigate a full field development thereafter.
Depending on the success of B-10, the Buffalo PSC has the potential to deliver gross
production volumes of up to 40,000 bopd within three years.
In conjunction with the placing, in which the Company’s CEO and Chairman both
participated, ADV undertook a 10:1 capital consolidation and as such, the Company now
has 1,027.6 million shares in issue as at 19 April 2021.
Such was the success of the recent fund raising, ADV now has material financial
headroom, equivalent to approximately US$7.5m. We understand that c.US$2.5m of this
represents a provision for the Company’s share of potential additional costs associated
with the B-10 well. However, ADV also has an additional US$5.0m of working capital with
which to fund its ongoing strategy of pursuing further value adding acquisitions.
In January 2021, we calculated that ADV’s 50% net interest in Buffalo could be worth up
to US$165m, based on a successful appraisal well and subsequent development project.
With the inclusion of free cash available to the Company, this generates an indicative
valuation of 12.1p per share. We note that the successful placing and the completion of
the acquisition have now de-risked this valuation substantially, mitigating a range of
commercial ri