Clearly, the farm-in confirmation was factored into the price - everybody expected it. The same with the spud date - this has been known for several weeks so no reason for any movement on that either. Once the drill bit starts turning then watch the ramping and rumour go into overdrive - IMO this will kick-start the move upwards. Obviously, a week or so in and the gas discovery RNS is released (!!??) - then who knows ? I'm in until we sell out to Shell at whatever price that may be (may be sensible and de-risk a bit along the way, unless I get greedy)
I really get the impression that whoever bought the placing shares has been hedging a short position over the last five weeks and low volume has allowed them to do it.. Once the well spuds and drilling starts it would be a brave man who backs their available sell volume against the market to short it.. Most likely they will switch to long positions on any remaining volume unsold by the end of this week..
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