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HFs will get hold of the debt . Short the stock. They will then push for a debt for equity swap. Or they are just short and own the stock and try and call time on the company in order to get paid on debt and collapse shares.
I reckon the Creditors know exactly the Funding status of the IRV Pension and who they are Invested in.
Max2 raises an excellent Question.
What % of the Pension Liabilities Invested into IRV ?
Personally i have decided this is not going the way of Carillion. The Government have already committed to saying it is not the same. So the Company will go on.
Now ; if the Company does carry on (I think it will) then I take the Pension Question as / If they are heavily self Invested into IRV then that could be good as it would be taken into account of the Deleveraging Plan. Because the last thing they want is to have Negative News on Pension defeficit. I am interested to know as things stand with 12p SP is the IRV Pension scheme fully funded or say at least 90%. If it is then I would be happy with that.
This is important. Need to know status of IRV Pension to what extent does it cover Liabilities ?
Should also add ...if the pension scheme ARE heavily invested into the company ...with the amount of dilution expected to happen this could increase pension liabilities and consequently may prevent a takeover....but as always you never know.
Vultures gathering yet ?
If company survives it'll do well.
If not, in its existing form perhaps a case of the usual scenario ….i.e. an entity wants to cherry pick the order book, contacts but you can keep the pension liabilities.
GL
Not a shareholder so sympathies I've been caught before.
Nothing done about it because they have the Power of Influence. Brexit wasn’t decided by the Public. The money men calculated both scenarios and then gave Cameron the green light to get the Refurendum first. All the chaos. Who make the the money ? Lot of work for them on £100/hr Legal people.
Back to IRV.
I predict 2 scenarios. This is clearly a settleing in Period. Now until 2019 Deleveraging Plan.
1> If PI snap up a significant % of the Company then the Creditors will Dilute more.
2> If PI do not snap up a significant % of the Company @12p then the Creditors will allow some Value to be retained.
However ; any more bad News and the Creditors will wipe out the lot. It is a case of if the PI builds up any meaningful Stake of Influence / then the Creditors will take that Value thank you very much.
So by definition if the SP remains Depressed then this means Value could be had by the PI in the medium turn. If the SP recovers with Volume then Beware / because the Creditors will simply take that Value.
I thank you ??.
This is what`s so ridiculous, we can see it happening before our own eyes but is anything ever done about it? No! As soon as the murky hedge funds get involved it`s pretty much game over. They control the company and the banks [to a certain extent], have massive influence over the press and can play it so they make as much as possible.
I wouldn`t be surprised if the BOD were in on it as well...
1 share bought @11.96. Ridiculous or its a code1
The Equity swap could have been done when SP a £1. But no .. They all had a plan to drive this SP down and it stinks of insider trading. The Company imo has been controlled by the Creditors for a long time / which is why it won’t go bust.
It is on margin of murkey waters when a group of individuals holding Power can actually make Profit out of a failing Company. And worse than that. Cheer every missed deadline that occurred so they could further turn the screw.
The Fact is / those of Power now have the Greatest influence of their Investment. And this has only occurred because the Company is on it’s knees re Cash Flow and Debt.
They cannot loose can they ?
This Share is Un Investable as a PI as only the Creditors know where the Value is re this Company. They will no doubt be building a Stake at these low levels and they will set the Dilution and at what Cost.
I’ve learned that individual Share holders Money is low on list of priorities and worse than that / will actually be used by the Creditors / Investors with gravitas, for their own gain.
All we can do is piggy back on those people but we are not party to their decisions in Wealth creation.
The Creditors hold the Keys here because when it has all played out / They will set the Dilution vs any Stake they have built today onwards.
Hence the Equity swap not happening until 2019. This delay gives them even more Power to set the Dilution for their own gain.
Individual PI Shareholders here have been dismissed.
Have any of the longs sold out? I’m still holding for a better price if anything as I would not get much at the current price. Carillion hit 24p briefly before it went bust, so we might see the same here considering we won’t see the new plan until the end of q1 2019