London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Zengas - thank you. Some sensible clarification, as ever.
Tier, yes, I'm finding this site almost unusable at the moment. Have to clear cookies from browser everytime I want to post something. Hopeless!
Thank you both Zengas and Happy.
I said before, there will be progress but will linger on for a couple of weeks into July. I should have trusted my instinct not adding last week and waited until now. I have big stakes here so very nervous.
Zengas thank you for posting here, I joined the other board because I value your posts, but I much prefer this board. Having said that the other board is more user friendly.
It’s good to know you’re still siting tight.
There was a new $50m debt facility put in place barely 9 months ago with an oil trading company.
I would say this will start to be drawn to get us to first oil in Niger.
Re Niger Amdigh well test - doubt if they will engage a rig for that alone without other activity and perhaps new drilling. They say deliver "first oil in H2" and also "to recommence exploration drilling in H2".
The exploration drilling should add more reserves and this is totally separate from any development drilling.
If they are delivering/or going to deliver first oil + explo drilling then I can see the loan facility being used against production and/or reserves. Very latest from AEI is that CNPC see major oil through the new Benin pipeline in circa 3 years so an ideal time for a partner to also potentially enter (which Savp have mentioned).
Bottom line is imo Niger very much forgotten by PIs.
Yesterdays 3 trades of 707693, 457693 and 250,000 = 1.415m - the 457693 & 250,000 trade was the same combined amount to balance the first 707,693 trade so imo definitely a buyer and a seller.
Nigeria delay - likely perhaps ministerial as nominees for posts not submitted as early as hoped for and why imo Savp give 'continue to expect' completion guidelines which im sure they get from government/industry and beyond their control. I don't see it set in stone but take the view it will happen given world bank and other investors onboard.
S/P is more from PIs impatience/fear and thinking deadline is set in stone when it never has been and is an expected guideline only.
Tier - not that precise on this, but note that the US$23m at end of jan was for working capital.
Note the financial review at 30th May 2019 states: 'The Group's loss after tax for the year was US$24.6m (2017: loss US$27.4m). This loss was predominantly driven by the accounting treatment of certain ongoing transaction costs as well as increased corporate activity as we prepared to integrate the Seven Assets and provide for an enlarged group structure.'
They do put this warning in their 'going concern' section: 'However, although material progress has been achieved on the Transaction (including signature of the Implementation Agreement in February 2019), the directors recognise that there remains uncertainty around the timing for the completion of the transaction which could lead to a liquidity shortfall and the need for the company to access additional funding.'
They have put off the Amdigh1 well test until the 7E deal is completed (which will be financed by an incoming $90m on that completion).
I'm not aware of a loan facility?
As a finger in the air job, it looks like they can meet admin costs until December at the current rate. However, they don't want to put the well test off forever, so if the 7E deal doesn't get done by end of July, it wouldn't surprise me if they raised money to get the well test done.
But I'm not great at reading accounts, so this is very much imo.
Happy, ( or anyone who can answer), if the deal is delayed again, how much longer can they carry on before cash runs out and another raise? Do they have bank loan facility in place? Much appreciated if anyone knows the answer.
Zengas (on ADVFN) suggests delay may be due to no Petroleum Minister in place yet. As discussed previously, Does he need to be in place or can the ministerial 'caretaker' sign off, given that it is President Buhari who usually gives the nod to what goes on regards oil&gas?
A little on Legit this morning to give you an idea of the current politics - but no decision yet.
I doubt they would RNS the probability of missing the deadline, only when it is certain, i.e. on Friday.
Equally if they are certain of the deal being signed off by Friday it should be RNS'd when signed, not on a convenient date to coincide with the AGM. Conclusion if no RNS by Thursday expect an update/ revised anticipated completion date RNS on Friday .IMO.
Note: I've had trouble logging-in / posting on this lse site. The advice is to clear out cookies on your browser and try again - seems to help, but not entirely perfect.
This is probably naive, but if they are going to miss the deadline they will have known this at least a week back - and as to do so would clearly be material to the share price then they should have RNS'd new guidance a week back. That they haven't means that I expect, and am invested on the basis that, the 7E deal will complete by Friday. Otherwise I might attend the AGM with a milkshake (though good old-fashioned beer is more my style)!
Good post Telegraphist.
There are a few new names, suddenly posting optimistic messages about confidence in the spiel SAVP are putting out and the timelines. I would ask those people to carefully read back through the other optimistic messages and missed deadlines.
A wider question .. why is there no progress in Niger? When is first oil? Why is this taking years? It seems to me that despite SAVP’s statements, it cannot be commercially viable at this point (no trucks, no roads, no refinery capacity .. whatever reason) .. otherwise I do not understand why we are not pumping oil yet.
All the new folks preaching patience, but I bought on a 10 year plan. But 3 years into it there has been no significant progress and halving of the SP.
I’m Holding .. but not happy!
That may be some comfort to those buying in now (presuming the deal completes at some point in time) but it's little consolation to those who've been in for a while. The inescapable fact is if you invested prior to suspension in June 2017, when the SP was in the high 30's (and maybe even touched the 40's), the SP has to double from here to put you back in the same financial position you were before this so called 'transformational deal'. I don't think anyone could argue that the 'spin' from SAVP since 2017 with regards the 7E deal completing has been, at best, over optimistic, at worst, I'm not sure I could put it in print!
Bought some for the grandkids portfolios. They aren't working on a 3 day timetable. Is this cheap - yes. Is there the prospect of the sp rising significantly - yes. If things go wrong do they lose everything - no. Will the sp be double the current level at some point in the next 10 years - 90% yes from me - so in the portfolio they go.
Am with you on that zeus from everything i have read all the rns’s released and the research i have carried out nothing has ever made me think the transaction wont complete. Am sure upon completion the shareholders will be richly rewarded for their patients, we have already been told there will be a dividend or a share buy back scheme put in place.
The issue is not timing as the market mostly does not take these dates as given. The question is whether the deal will happen at all and given progress to date I see no real reason to doubt this whether we complete in June, July or August. It is not far away.
"The Company continues to expect that the Transaction will complete during Q2 2019".
The word "expect" surely has been redefined by SAVP over the past two years.