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Would anyone happen to know the size of the Ptombeiras project. It would be nice to know why jangada didnt gice this up rather thsn just speculation that it is a valuable asset. Does it have any exploration licences yet? Ive noted HMI has gone up again today too.
The fact the BoD own such a large majority here means they can do whatever they like (as long as it's wrapped up in legally bound paper), screwing any other shareholders over and there is nothing you can do about it. Too late for some and of course hind sight is wonderful but this should serve a lesson and put others off from joining the throng here. The vanadium asset is worth absolutely nothing. ValOre will dilute the 33% JAN holding down in the coming years as they are cash-strapped. Remember the BoD, avoid.
Total Trader - very interesting and insightful. Post recommended.
Quindell - doesn't make sense for the BOD to do anything detrimental to the company when they own 60% of JAN
So now lets assume that the board are startegic or greedy - I don't really care which as long as I get a return.
Concert Party (mates club) owns 60% and they naturally want to get the highest return going. They can only get a return in 3 ways - a dividend through earnings, sell the company or sell the assets and pay a special dividend. Salaries are just not that exciting even they way they have all set up their tax free enterprises.
Assume the Vanadium asset looks good, the price will recover from it's lows and it is a potential metal of the future. If I am a Vanadium comapny looking to purchase I don't want PGM's, but then again neither really do the board, the returns are poor. I can sell the Vanadium as is for a low price or sell the PGM side, use the money and firm up the Vanadium resource knowing I have strong interest in the market and I can sell it for many times the value of the PGM business. If the PGM business does work, OK we have an interest in it and thus a hedge for the future along with a speculative Uranium play.
So the deal and timing for the PGM does look like madness - in my experience that either means it is madness or there is an ulterior motive. When the board own 60% their is a strong vested interest so I am going to go against my usual instict of madness and think that maybe there is more to this.
Just some thoughts for discussion. I could bash JAN all day for what they have done but I am hoping there is a flip side to it. Does not take away from the fact that the timing is terrible, the communication and "leading" on has been terrible. But I am a realist and know that the timings and expectations of a PI are usually very different from those of a Company.
Part 1 of 2
The deison to Val Ore is completely odd I agree. To sell to a company almost as small as JAN with no funds makes little to no sense. If the deal went through at £5-8m, ok not great but at least it could be stomached but at half of that and before the BFS - you have to question the rationale. It's either part of a master plan or just another salary for a board member and it's usually the latter !!
The point here though is that the Concert Party own about 60% of JAN of which BM owns 20% of JAN. So JAN sold at a higher multiple benefits them alot more than an extra $100k a year in salary - that's the bit that does not make sence. In these cases I always go back to the raw numbers. My calculation of the new JAN NPV before the sale and before adding in Vanadium was $300m over a 20-25 year LOM. Sounds big numbers but in essence it's not great at all. It equates to about £8m of net profit per year, fine with the current number of shares but not so good with the level of dilution that would be required for a debt/equity funding. You end up with an EPS of less than 1p per share at best. OK so lets sell and concentrate on Vanadium - fine, but the price was poor. OK the markets are crap so we sell cheap to fund the Vanadium asset.
JAN have already started an NI compliant study - news to me - but OK they have started. The deal with ValOre gives £150k up front with another £435k in 100 days if the deal goes through and another £580k maybe at the end of Nov and another at the end of Feb '20. JAN want the NI study completed by the Sept quarter. I don't know how much drilling has been done but the last update was 4 holes and 300m. This site is 1km x 2km x 200m deep. 300m's of drilling is pi**ing in the ocean. Let's ignore the 200m depth since the resource is high grade at surface and drill to only 60m. How many holes at 60m over that area is required for an NI compliant resource?? No idea but has to be circa 200 with over 10,000m of drilling. So let's put 4 rigs on there doing 2,500m each , that's 6 months to get full assays and about £375k per rig to get to NI status or £1.1m in total and I think I am being conservative in that.
That's Sept quarter gone and most likley end of Q4 or Q1 2020. If it is delayed then the money from ValOre just about covers it, if it is not then ValOre does not cover it. Unless of course JAN are only doing the NI compliance over part of the resource to begin with.
So my summary would be - absoltely shocking communication by the board preceded by miscommunication to begin with about moving this all the way to at least a BFS. The Vanadium asset could be good and hugely valuable but it is not known. The XRF sampling matches reasonably well with the limited drilling so lets hope so. Even if we get a NI resource we have to go through all the motions and expense to get to a BFS again.
There is a big but to all of this of course and that is that the board is very strategic (I know !)
Agree with you there - it’s a strange deal a £100m mcap company taking over makes sense... but a minor taking over a minor makes no sense
They raised at 0.1 in January. Assuming it's at the current price it's a lot higher up. Seems quite illiquid so imagine management will take part like they did previously. If it was a cash rich company with a good development pedigree, it'd be easier to swallow, but Valore just seem like another smallcap basketcase.
It does not matter what any of us think...under valued etc. The reality is the market thinks this deal stinks and is a possible scam or dodgy or something. The price has therefore more than halved as holders dump stock. Maybe it will bounce from below a penny...nearly there...but the market has completely lost confidence for the moment. All this money poured in via placings to do what...give the assets to an unknown unquoted stock abroad? Even if the deal is cancelled it won’t help much. The bod don’t exactly inspire confidence do they?
Its a no brainer. MC is 2.71m. Valore shareholders need to dilute their shares once again. I dont think the deal with even go through.
Just some of my thoughts anyway, not looked too close at uranium assets/potential (Canadian permitting takes an age and don't know the economics currently - but all tides sometimes rise) just think it looks cheap - now especially.
Early 2017 valore sp was >1.5 so more than 5X higher, should the transaction take place at this level or higher (wild speculation) sentiment around Jan would surely change significantly as their on going stake would remain much closer to 30%. Just quickly looking at Valore sp pre fukashima the potential for movement during a uranium bull cycle becomes clearer.
How much choice do aim punters have for N American uranium exposure? Why do this if they didn't think it would benefit them, they own so much of the Co? Surely the short term sp reaction was predictable?
Minimal detail provided on rationale imv....So far
Got some <1.55 yesterday morning and currently plan to hold until next year at least.
Principle commodity exposure shifting focus from pge to vanadium but with some continued exposure to pedra brancas pge ounces - to me improved upside potential, shift from late to early stage development however increases scale of likely future dilution.
Jan share price in the short term, assuming deal goes through, now appears of little importance at least less important c.f. with that of valore, imo.
New exposure to high grade Canadian uranium projects close to athabasca basin with section 232 decision from trump likely by mid/late july. If canada is included beneficially in the deal (likely imo US has insufficient supply for short term satisfaction of 25%) valore sp should/could see a boost.
Low mcap at present with incoming non dilutive cash to progress apparent large V asset. Would BM have done this if he wasn't positive about that asset creating relative shareholder value (69.5% of shares not in public hands)? Given the unknown dilution of the receivable valore stake going forward, I doubt it.
Vanadium price being lower at present is better for developers c.f. producers apart form the disinterest from providers of capital (Jan have incoming cash if sale goes ahead). The lower the price the more economic vrfb are and the greater the scale of their production and concurrent iterative price reduction per kWh. The future demand and long term average price of vanadium will likely be more stabilised and be higher if/once vrfb grid scale energy storage market penetration becomes dominant. China gradually enforcing the rebar standards of Nov 2018 over 2019 and 2020 should gradually increase price, 10 to 15 usd per lb range is my bet for mid term equilibrium. Those prices should give incentive for development and finance of several new vanadium mines around the world. If vrfb do prove dominant then multiple times increase in demand is possible for years to come into the next decade/s.
Number of shares jan get - fixed at 25m. sp of valore - not fixed, the higher it goes in next 100 days or before the placing/ acquisition, the lower the attendant dilution to the 33% Jan stake. Section 232 decision and pedra Bianca dfs release prior to 100 days from today? - so this could work out better than it may appear today.
'Angilak Property in Nunavut Territory, hosts the Lac 50 Trend with a NI 43-101 Inferred Resource of 2,831,000 tonnes grading 0.69% U3O8, totalling 43.3 million pounds U3O8. ValOre's comprehensive exploration programs have demonstrated the "District Scale" potential of the Angilak Property.'
Been watching Jan for a while, this one was definitely very left field. No ideal where sp will head short term with yesterday being such a shock.
There is too much scaremongering going on here. Rns states assumptions that have to be met and there is the chance may nit even go through. Jan eveb said if it doesnt go through in a 100 days they would give a refund of 200000 instead of 250000. Valore doesnt seem to even have much money to back it up or from the shareholders. Has anyone even looked at how large the other site is? Perhaps they are interested in the iron ore? Besides company is now undervalued eith so much possibke cash and an extra mine to work with.
Run for your life.
Was thinking of buying in here as it looked a good prospect having both PGM and Vanadium interests. Glad I held off and tracked it for a while and now need to re-evaluate whether it still is. I can see this deal came out of the blue and hasn't gone down well with LTH though.
DC, yep, my bad, 4.1 was in GBP, the cash payments were in CAD. Rationale is clear, easier access to cash over in Canada than in London. Timing is shocking as you'd think you'd deliver the BFS first and do a deal from a position of strength. Looking at previous RNSes, it was all looking extremely rosy.
DCat is a moron. Anyone who value his opinion deserves to lose their cash, which by the sound of it, he lost today.
GC - the deal makes no sense to me, if it was say North American Palladium I could see the connect, but a small cap Canadian company with uranium interest is just puzzling and raises a number of questions that lead to concerns. I’ve found reference to Valore being part of the discovery group, but information on this is sketchy. No clear signs of the rationale behind the deal. It leaves far too many questions.
Where you are quite clearly wrong is the 4.1m reference. RNS shows that figure with a sterling sign in front. In addition the CPR reference within the section of rationale for proposed transaction.
Lots to be angry and frustrated about today, but if yours going to vent it might as well be directed at the timing of this deal and the apparent lack of rationale behind this tie up.
Now you're sounding like me! Maybe I've rubbed off on you?! Hehe.
On a serious note, you guys got a bad deal today and even I wasn't expecting PB to be sold off for peanuts. BM has played his hand and he had the Joker card all along. I have always commented that he wasn't creating enough pizzazz around the share, but what is more worrying is that he has blamed you shareholders! Flattery will get him everywhere.....NOT!
So what now? I wouldn't touch this one with a barge pole at the moment. The sentiment has taken another kicking today, big time. I called it right I believe. I just don't think they really had enough nous and cash to drive the project forward, coupled with the lack of shareholder excitement. The same seems to be happening over at HMI - just a general lack of interest and understanding, which is causing the share price to dwindle. It's a sorry state of affairs and I'm just very glad that I jumped ship at just shy of 5p. Since that day, the share price has been looking downwards and it seems likely that it will continue its journey below 1p while it licks its wounds and decides on its next direction.
Remain very, very cautious here guys and gals. They appear to be months and months away from any sincere progress and what is a killer on AIM is a lack of regular news flow, poor sentiment and uncertainty. Sub 1p I suspect provides a decent opportunity to buy-in or average down for those that are interested, but 0.75p to 0.8p looks likely here in the interim. Such a shame for you loyal shareholders, but apparently it's your fault so you're just going to have to take responsibility for what happened today and going forward. Pah!
That 4.1 is CAD not GBP. Whats the runway on the cash? Bowl Movements will have to get his begging bowl out again and get the TMS ramp going.
Potential of the asset has been there for 40 years. McMaster doesn’t have the nous to get the markets to back the story. Why not complete the BFS and sell in a position of strength? Or were they lying about how rosy things were? If vanadium was the prize, why not dump the PGM much earlier when vanadium prices were much higher. They’re just following fads now rather than sticking to a long term plan. One article let slip a CPR is being prepared for Q4 and this wasn’t made public. He can blame the market but it’s his fault for doing such a crap job of telling the story and giving the market confidence.
Uranium market in the doldrums and they have gold projects going nowhere. 4.1m based on current share price. Valore are just an illiquid small cap so it’s just jumping to another lifeboat. McMaster has screwed over shareholders and was willing to spite himself in the process. He’ll get a board seat at Valore and continue milking both companies via consultancy fees and expenses. He’s uninvestable and shown how incompetent he is in dealing with the London market.
jc, the mkt cap made very little sense 24 hours ago at circa £5m and at that point there was understandable expectations that a transformational BFS was within reach, But from here I would suggest we need to fully understand the granular details before reaching judgement,
The structure of the deal is a surprise considering recent comm’s, but the part divesting of PB and the Canadian listing is not, some times these deals are more about what is under the surface, rather than what we are able to see and despite the current and in some part understandable frustration and anger in the comments that are in circulation today, my belief in the underlying potential remains and in all probability, today’s events are now more likely to ensure that PB and Ptombeiras West value and potential is achieved and we now also have a third share, in what appears to be a significant uranium asset, which has had circa £50m invested, so for £3m we have a third of PB, cash in the bank to progress Ptombeiras West and a third share (pre dilution) of a significant set of uranium assets, details and articulate comm’s are now the necessity,..GL S
Isn't making sence market cap 3.2 million, deal done for 4.1 million, also cash in bank and other assets!