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We were obviously writing at the same time! But what's 10 psi between friends?
Please don't answer that.
"Wellwell what sort of pressure would their be occurring naturally on those 2 wells ?"
I'll answer, even though your question was for someone else.
sorry for hijacking your thread, Wellwell!
cheers - sg
if you have a quick shufti at the '2019 Q1 corporate presentation', pages 13 ('bottom hole pressures' ) and, more interestingly, 22 ('IPR plot' for the 205/21a-6 well), you'll see that the pressures bottom-hole for that well are iro 1850 psi, or about 127 bar. Not the sort of pressure one would like to have one's colonic irrigation performed at.
However, it's NOT the bhp that's key - or why Dr T is like a kid in a sweet shop with HE: It's the available rate of draw in relation to the pressure-drop that's the big interest in fractured basement.
"AK “Many of these constraints are now removed, and it's evident that these wells 'want to flow'. (You've got to have worked in the field to properly understand that phrase!)”.
Is that like unrestricted flow which in context means unconstrained although the latter sounds like a blow out!!! Not that any one is splitting hairs! "
Despite the many differences we've had on this BB, I still read your posts, and obviously you still read mine.
Your latest brought a big grin to my face, genuinely and honestly. But also followed by a frown of serious thought and pondering.
We're talking oilfield technical semantics, here. And Rona Ridge isn't an ultradeep overpressured thing like Macondo. But 'lose control' of it? What a horrific idea.
But that's why this little 'garden shed' company has gone state-of-the-art all along.
A lot of people don't understand that. The techniques, equipment, and methodology used so far have been exactly the same as those employed by the 'big boys', if not better and even more cautious.
Wellwell what sort of pressure would their be occurring naturally on those 2 wells ?
AK “Many of these constraints are now removed, and it's evident that these wells 'want to flow'. (You've got to have worked in the field to properly understand that phrase!)”.
Is that like unrestricted flow which in context means unconstrained although the latter sounds like a blow out!!! Not that any one is splitting hairs!
Thanks for the futher comments Biffa and A double, I have a massive grin on my face at the moment about the possible 30,000 bpd.
Fingers crossed the info posted about the oil flowing better than expected is correct but it is backed up by the recent offload.
I guess it is possible there could be another offload before the CMD, as the 9,000 bpd guidance could be way under what is actually happening. Let's hope so!
Double a tanker full is a big plus in my book.
"Is it believed now that HUR could ramp up to 30,000 bod, without the need for the gas pipeline, even though HUR have consistently advised 20,000 bpd max for the EPS."
I don't think there's anyone posting here who could properly answer that question for you. Certainly not myself.But as per my earlier post, Hurricane (fortunately) tends to be conservative in its forecasts. Plus also, the 20,000 bbl estimate is an average, which means that at times the wells will be producing more than that... It's not a 'max'.
Going back a few years (2017 AGM I think), I remember RT saying that they would be able to get 30k bopd (gross) out of the EPS if they wells really delivered the goods and that they would still be able to keep within gas flaring limits (subject to GOR) at 30k bopd.
Joe, what makes the amount an "RNS event", that is complete nonsense, besides it has already been sold.
This 30,000 or 20,000 bpd point being made is very interesting, with regards to flaring constraint.
Is it believed now that HUR could ramp up to 30,000 bod, without the need for the gas pipeline, even though HUR have consistently advised 20,000 bpd max for the EPS.
I thought it was always believed that the wells could produce more than 10,000 each and that it was purely restricted due to gas flaring.
If this 30,000 bpd is the case, and I bow to the superior knowledge of you oilies, and with the growing belief that the oil is flowing better than expected the SP should soon sky rocket.
I just fail to understand why HUR have not highlighted this possibility in their presentations, unless I have missed it, but I acknowledge Sipps supplied info that I was not aware of, thank you Sipp.
The HUR story keeps getting better and better and it could be that the CMD could well see a decent SP increase if this type of info is proven with facts by HUR on the 11th July.
"Amount of oil sold is an RNS event, period."
No it isn't.
We'll probably have to wait for the half-yearly interim Financial Report for that, and even then (for we grockles) it probably won't be broken down into a 'per tanker' format.
There's got to be a reason they decided to instal 2 * 20K flowlines for the 2 wells?
And all of a sudden, sitting on a café terrace, sipping a beer (nothing to do with a certain poster here!), I've had a 'flash': a realisation of why production rates may be different from those prognosed and published, and indeed higher. As we seem to be seeing.
Ignoring possible equipment 'problems' which could lead to low average rates following initial startup, and also the company's characteristic (and laudable) conservatism when 'prognosing', the initial rates are just a 'model' built on prior DST data. And a DST is necessarily 'constrained', not simply in equipment terms, both surface and downhole, but also the relatively short period of time over which the tests are conducted.
Many of these constraints are now removed, and it's evident that these wells 'want to flow'. (You've got to have worked in the field to properly understand that phrase!)
The SP might be sluggard, but I can sleep quite easy in the knowledge that the thing I initially invested in, when the EPS was just a thing on paper and I'd never even heard of the Aoka Mizu, is working so well.
The flaring constraint is 30k bpd ; it is the upgrade to 40k bpd which will have to await the gas solution.
Bloobird, it's 30,000 barrels a day.
From the EPS-ES (look back at my recent posts for a link)
"During the six year life of the EPS phase, the maximum oil production rate will be 4,770 m3 (30,000 bbl), constrained by the processing equipment on the FPSO (Section 3.4.3). Although there will be some variability below that maximum this, as the worst case scenario production rate, is considered here for the purposes of this assessment. Based on the analysis of samples from the wells drilled to date, the Lancaster crude has as a gas to oil (GOR) ratio in the range of 342.5 to 405 scf/bbl. Based on this range, the amount of gas that may be produced in association with the Lancaster crude each day of production is shown in Table 3.10. There are still uncertainties associated with the GOR and therefore it is not possible to provide more definitive calculations for the amount of gas that will be produced until further samples can be obtained and analyses completed. As a further result of these uncertainties, it has been necessary to ensure that greater volumes of gas than those anticipated from this highest GOR value can be accommodated by the vessel processing systems. Therefore, the highest GOR has been increased by a further 15% (465.75 scf/bbl) as a contingency measure and this has been used to inform the design of the FPSO facilities, specifically the flare. Table 3.10 Predicted quantities of gas produced in associated with the Lancaster crude Gas to oil (GOR) range for the Lancaster crude Low GOR scenario High GOR scenario Gas to oil ratio (GOR) (scf/bbl) 342.5 405.0 High GOR plus design contingency Oil production rate (bbl/day) 405 x 15% = 465.75 30,000 30,000 Oil production rate (m3/day) 30,000 4,770 4,770 Associated gas per day (MMscf/day) 4,770 10.3 12.2 Associated gas per day (m3/day) 14.0 291,785 345,609 Associated gas per days (tonnes/day) 396,601 314 372 427 Although the amount concerned may ultimately be lower than anticipated for the reasons explained above, for the purposes of this assessment it is assumed that up to 14 MMscf (396,601 m3) of gas per day may be produced as a worst case scenario. To note at this point, this rate is further constrained by the maximum continuous flaring capacity of the FPSO, which also sits at 14 MMscf of gas per day (see below). "
There is no point speculating about volume of oil delivered, wait for official confirmation of oil oil sold, that's if they decide to tell us.
Amount of oil sold is an RNS event, period.
"And bear in mind that a further ramp up to 30k bpd might also be possible much sooner than the predicted timeline."
I don't think so … 20k is the max throughput allowed until gas flaring problem is sorted.
My bad. I was using 0.88 standard crude figures.
38 API = 0.835 SG
Agree with original posters 356k. Although i get 357k.
"I also think Dr T is aware the real value driver is the 6-12 months of performance data so releasing info now would only cause a short term spike in the share price and Dr T is more concerned about the long term rather than satisfying the needs of traders on here.."
For me your post hit the nail on the head. That's the key takeaway - everything positive we hear between then and the conclusion of analyzing performance data is a bonus.