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Another poor day for OP - the main question being whether it will stay above $60 and, in that event, whether G will then remain above 180p. On the face of it G is already in ‘buy’ territory (on the lowest of middle three red trend here) but, with OP dominating the price at present, it could be a risky prospect at 188 or even 183.
All looks normal relative to OP on the weekly chart - with GKP obviously benefiting from buyback action, resulting in a slightly artificial looking price line:
G v Peak Brent (effectively re-based from October) puts it into context:
Conclusion - post buyback blues alongside some selling - agreed re nothing to see here - in the illustrious words of JN - "go crazy some place else, we're all stocked up here"
Gkp has lower volume than us though
Gkp - 0.19%
Genel - 2.9%
bunks asked: Why are we getting punished so much more more than say gkp yesterday and today?
GKP's sp is evidently being supported to some extent by their longer term buyback process. DNO is behaving much like G.
I tend to agree with Hawkey 'nothing to see here' because the sp is tracking OP in a generally consistent and predictable way as far as I can see.
Gkp - 0.9%
Genel - 2.9%
What's baffling is gkp - much lower volumes - buy to sell ratio sucks more than ours - again no consistency in the markets imo
I wouldn't call it a sell off and I don't see any significant shorter(s) - just more selling than buying - not miniscule volume either, not majorly lower than during the buyback but certainly no propping up (buyinb) which we relied on during that buyback period
Historicially we always get hit hard when volumes are low and oil week.
There isn't any sell off of note and volume are very very low.
Just frustratingly makes it a longer journey back up.
However with the stellar news and results coming our way and hopefully a larger and continued buy back this should support the SP.
Nothing to see here......................................
Bunks do you think its being shorted, or Just a general sell off?
Drop in volume since the modest buyback concluded maybe?
Why are we getting punished so much more more than say gkp yesterday and today?
Prior to the buyback G would have been a lot lower at this OP- sub 180 probably....
Today’s sp may be disappointing but you can’t fault G on consistency: 194p for $64 (at the close) Brent = 3x on boyo’s ratio (other performance measures are available).
Prior to the buyback G would have been a lot lower at this OP- sub 280 probably.
I guess I can’t complain: at around 188 I’ll have to consider some buybacks of my own:
Meanwhile, the others are doing pretty much as well as they were doing on November 21st - with GKP the only one making real progress but, to be fair, it was doing particularly badly at that time and needed to catch up….
At the close G’s sp was clinging to its 3x ratio to Brent $/bbl and also to the trend line that the buyback scheme just managed to perch it back on. Since then OP has taken a bit of a fall, with LCO futures possibly heading for $64 as I type. I’ve reverted to LCO as it’s the most commonly quoted Brent benchmark - OANDA and XBR crude prices usually track it very closely on a percentage basis but are up to $1.5 different in absolute terms, especially at the front month roll-over date.
The three amigos all took a dive together - ahead of OP, so word must have been out, I guess, and there may be more drops tomorrow unless it turns out to be a brief glitch.
As we are just a day into the week here's six day's worth of the 15' tick G v Brent with GKP and DNO to provide some fair comparisons. GKP's buyback going steady it seems. https://invst.ly/b9o1m . G's sp ratio to Brent is just on 3 - my benchmark for 'average' performance. That means it has been much worse and, equally it has been much better - 3.2 to 3.4 is the kind of range we saw earlier in the year and that's what you need to have any chance of getting near 230p.
H : Without Genel being propped up this last week or so I wonder where we would be?
Boyo: Still can't be Rsed with the charts eh H? According to tonight's first chart, the answer is 5% down on the 24/6 closing price (177p), ie 168p just like GKP and DNO over the same period. So, yes, we are 30p up on what might have been. Good old G eh?
I can't fault your logic about selling a few tomorrow H, but mind how you go - the sellers might come out from under their rocks in bigger numbers tomorrow as the clock ticks towards cutoff - which may come early given the rule you highlighted today. It's why I sold a trading tranche today rather than wait. Because the buyback process has kept the price range really tight, I was going to set a 198 limit order but when I logged in to my account I got an offer just a fraction of a p over so I sold immediately. I hope the sp doesn't drop back but hope alone doesn't earn bucks.
I'll be happy to trade the next wave even if the price has gone up, as long as I can spot and buy at the bottom. This is quite tricky with G because of the instability of OP, upon which it is sooo dependent! The chart can look great but then the EIA figures or a Trump tweet can kick the table over.
Im selling a few late tomorrow as I think there is a real chance without support it will drop next week.
Without Genel being propped up this last week or so I wonder where we would be.
Long term we will shine but next week ....Could be tricky in my opinion.
My thanks to H for pointing out the rule limiting buyback volume - I guess most of us would have curtailed our ambitions for the sp had we been aware of it. The outcome, as we reach the last day is, however, satisfactory as far as I’m concerned, even if it didn’t quite hit my trading target (which was 206). I consequently sold off a smaller tranche - which I’ll buy back if there’s any fall next week, although I doubt the opportunity will arise given the way this has run.
G v Brent 15’ chart from start of buyback: : https://invst.ly/b6eec
G progress this year v Brent, looking healthier: https://invst.ly/b6ef5
G and the others from Peak OP in October: https://invst.ly/b6ej5
G is now back to ‘respectable’ in the sense that it needs to be above the Brent line in order to be matching or doing better than it was when Brent hit $85, the bigger the gap the better obviously.
Gsp/OP$ ratio is currently around 3.1 (about average for this year) and would equate to an sp of 230p for an OP of $75.
A pity that OP didn’t play ball today because $67 Brent x3.09 = 207p which would have made a nicer close than $63.7 x3.09 = 196.8p. But the important thing is that the Buyback plan continues and the G v Brent ratio, if not the raw sp itself, continues to strengthen. Let’s also hope that Brent will continue to stay above $61 and the long term trend line here: https://invst.ly/b5p34
As I’ve discussed on another thread, evidence of the buyback effect is plainly seen here on G v Brent for the week, where GKP appears as a ‘non-buyback’ comparison to demonstrate how G might have moved (15’ ticks): https://invst.ly/b5p2t
Here’s how G is performing against Brent since Peak-OP in October: https://invst.ly/b5p1l
And all the rest from Peak OP in October: https://invst.ly/b5p5p
Looks like the objective today was to accumulate up to about 198 and hoover up as many sellers as possible at around this level - nominally the 197 resistance, although such levels are invariably +/- a couple of p as the price either gets knocked back below it or perches upon it for a while before continuing.
Bear in mind that those who would have sold at this level but choose to hold out for more might simply join a bigger queue at the next level shift (if there is one) and subsequent fall-back.
The week so far v Brent (15’ ticks): https://invst.ly/b5c74
There’s a strong pattern of ‘step-up’ followed by one or two days of fall-back or consolidation (1 hour ticks): https://invst.ly/b5c7u
The rest of the field since October Peak OP: https://invst.ly/b5c89
G certainly not looking quite so cheap now by comparison with the others. At this rate 204 looks like a possible destination - and a few FC contenders tightly packed around that number, with JL in pole position.
Loving that chart Boyo and fingers crossed it will fall that way. I know there were many against the Buy backs but currently they do seem to be working.
Slowly slowly catchy monkey.
Keep a slow steady rise and then a blast just before the update...Taq Taq, Bina Bawi, Early Sarta progress, new acquisition any or all of the above and then................
Today’s 15’ chart v Brent from last Friday’s close includes GKP and DNO so that we can get a better feel for the G-specific effect of the buy-back process. A good measured pace I’d say, building and consolidating each step without spraying cash at the market.
A third of the way into the process and neatly perched on the broken trendline in this long-term chart - with any luck heading for the next: https://invst.ly/b4dr1
Should be a solid platform upon which to add some good news in August.
The rest of the field since April $75 OP: https://invst.ly/b4dmx