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I concur with MasterRSI:
The shares are at a low currently but could move higher, the markets are moving the shares up or maybe down occasionally and there is a sensation that they are positive when they are not negative.
Can I have 12 recommends too please?
Z
It’s appropriate to remind everyone that on face value buy and sell ‘volume’ might appear “shocking “ in rangerwillow’s post but this is different to actual bought and sold shares.
Every trade requires both a buyer and a seller of the given asset.
We might for instance see 100,000 shares sold as 1 volume and 5 x 20000 shares bought as 5 volumes.
Shares out ALWAYS equals shares in.
Z
An overpowering feeling of Deja vu this evening. Quality posters all arriving at the same time!
Magic - congrats, and welcome back. Don’t leave it so long next time!
Bottle (Liam) - good to see your moniker popping up. Thanks for your continuing efforts.
And last but not least - Callum Baxter our biggest shareholder yet at 110m shares and gracing us with his rare presence, bestowing upon us a sense of satisfaction that we’re all heading in the right direction and on the right track.
Is this an omen for what’s about to happen in the next several months?
Best wishes to you all.
Z
Morning Dip -thank you yet again for your tireless efforts on here.
For me, the recent webcast by SD (extracts quoted by your good self below),
And the following link (between minute 9:00 and 11:00)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=rTh-ZsKpna4
has helped me with my own personal roadmap for the way ahead:
Occasionally i have to reset my dials due to the plethora of ramping and disingenuous posters on here to try to 'declutter'.
IMO (therefore), I see this:
NEM know what they are doing. You dont't become the worlds biggest gold miner on a wing and a prayer. They understand their specialism like no other.
Consequently - they have decided Hav is never going to be a Tier 1. So they are divesting .
As Tom Palmer says in the link above - there is absolutely nothing wrong with a Tier2.
SD in his quote ( shown below in your post Dip) actually spends a reasonable amount of time telling his audience that this is his specialism.
The takeaway from this for me is that Hav is going to be successful due to economies of scale, but it will never be a Tier1.
The other takeaway (for me) is from SD's webcast the other day: the lower aquifer doesn't take 8+ months to dewater. I don't believe that - NEM have put the brakes on while they consolidate their holdings.
In summary I am relieved that Hav will be mined but conscious that there is yet another delay and production ore isn't going to happen this year (FCF).
Consequently I am projecting an SP of no more than 15p for 2024. (Based on GGP retaining 30%).
Obviously it gets too complicated to second guess the SP if other ownership options kick in.
I will also build into my considerations a JV (70/30) with Wyloo as the way forward.
No doubt - this will disgruntle a fair few PI's who are fraying at the edges from a patience perspective, but hey sometimes peeps need to reset.
A lot will happen this year (FS / D2M / continue with decline / new manager) but the biggest catalyst for me is development ore followed by production ore).
Z
I’m sure I’ve seen this earlier by another poster. Apologies for forgetting the name.
I, too, have come to the conclusion that overcoming this last and lower aquifer ( albeit it just another easily resolved geological hurdle), provides NEM with a natural hiatus in activity to divest from Hav. A reason to throttle back on construction costs with the decline.
External works might continue such as roads and supporting infrastructure but NEM (imo) will almost certainly focus on the rest of their portfolio elsewhere.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a new mining manager running Hav as we come out of the aquifer in Q3/24.
(Wyloo/GGP/other).
Cessation of the decline commenced Dec ‘23, it doesn’t take 8+ months to break through? There’s another reason for extending the suspension of the decline, methinks.
Lots of meetings, lots of calculations needed between now and end of the UK summer - but by then we will have much more certainty.
I continue to believe in GGP.and their BoD’s
Z
My questions were actually put to SD and for that, I am grateful. The response was as expected, given SD’s sensitive circumstances, so ambiguity prevailed but enough was stated to provide me with a slightly clearer picture of the time line…
The dewatering of the final aquifer should be complete in H2/24. Being optimistic, I am projecting Q3/24. Once they break through this layer, he expects the remaining rock stratum to be excellent for drilling. The incline falls at 7 degrees with a vertical depth of 80m to go. This means we have approx 660m of decline remaining. Based on SD’s description of the quality of rock and my interpretation of previous decline average daily progress- I am going to assume 6m/day (which is above the average - to date).
This gives me 110 days of drilling and blasting from recommencement of the decline post aquifer. This places us mid Q4 on arrival @ the motherlode.
Ore will be extracted at this stage (production ore) and stockpiled for 6 months in preparation for feeding the processing plant at Telfer . Mass production of processed ore will then commence circa Q2/25 (FCF?).
(The SLOS will need to be constructed once the decline arrives at the motherlode in mid Q4 and this entails a further decent of approx 500m to fully establish a working SLOS mine running at approx 3mt/ annum).
Views appreciated.
Z
Hi Sharketmare and MH01
I genuinely believe SD 'is' happy with the way things are going - for one.
But there is no way on earth he is going to release market sensitive info tomorrow - in a town hall to a couple of dozen PI's (IMO).
I also believe it will take weeks if not months for NEM to divest their 6 target mines of which Hav/Tel is one.
That is my concern - in that this deliberation could slug the whole production process.
I still think there will be a fairytale ending - I just need to get my head around "how much longer".
Impatient - no. Uncertain - yes. (Markets don't like uncertainty, neither do I).
Best wishes to you both and thanks for your help if you can SM!
Z
I can’t make these unique occasions as I spend a lot of time over here in Malaga with the family business.
So I rely heavily on genuine LTH’s giving feedback .
In advance therefore - thank you very much for giving up your time to attend and for bringing the rest of us up to speed.
From my perspective, I am not expecting ‘breaking news’- wrong place and wrong time. I’m expecting what has already been said on the latest ‘ Sunday roast’, in reality.
But if any (attending) kind soul would consider asking some/any of the following questions- I’d be most grateful to hear SD’’s response:
1. How long does SD consider it will take for NEM to formally advertise Hav/Tel “For Sale”?
2. Could NEM delay/ postpone the FS as a consequence of this imminent sale?
3. Will this have a knock on effect regarding the D2M?
4. Can GGP afford both the purchase price of Hav/Tel AND the projected production costs for the SLOS?
And finally……
Is the sale of GGP@ Hav ( at the right price) still on the table?
Many thanks.
Z
Callum’s sitting on 110,000,000 shares. He’s obviously spoken to SD or his team off the radar to check if he’s safe .
As a reminder we have 3 choices:
1. Sell.
2. JV with another major.
3. Buy the lot.
Which of those has Callum got his sights on?
Z
I think the links SuePud has flagged - covers most if not all bases. One of these will mature.
If (as the link suggests), Telfer and NEM's 70% of Hav is indeed worth $600m......isn't it convenient that the Bank(s) have already offered $220m collateral to GGP??? SD saw this coming last year.
No wonder he has a permanent smile on his face ;)
Z