RE: 🚀 HE1: The Calm Before the Helium Storm? 🚀7 Mar 2025 00:00
My rebuff to Pubcrawl crazy speculation...
While 138 bcf sounds impressive, “in place” volumes are meaningless without a clear understanding of reservoir characteristics. Helium accumulation is typically found in traps with highly variable permeability and pressure conditions. The lack of historical production data from this region means recovery estimates are, at best, speculative.
The assumption of 5% recoverability is optimistic without well test data to confirm flow rates and pressure differentials. Many helium reservoirs globally exhibit much lower recovery rates due to the challenge of extracting helium from mixed gas streams. Furthermore, extraction efficiency depends on the presence of co-mingled gases like nitrogen or methane, which impact separation economics.
The quoted helium price of $300–$400 per mcf is a spot price figure that applies primarily to purified helium in a tight market. However, in-ground helium is valued significantly lower due to extraction, purification, transportation, and market access costs. Given the infrastructure constraints in Tanzania, achieving a price anywhere near this range is unlikely without substantial CAPEX investment in cryogenic processing facilities.
Tanzania’s energy and resource sector has a history of shifting regulatory policies and state intervention. Recent changes in mining and petroleum laws demonstrate a preference for state participation, which could lead to additional permitting hurdles, profit-sharing mandates, or even resource nationalization risks.
The idea that HE1’s £60M market cap is “pocket change” based on hypothetical recoverable helium volumes assumes a near-perfect scenario where everything aligns: geology, recovery rates, pricing, permitting, infrastructure, and offtake agreements. The reality? Even proven helium projects with established production (e.g., North American helium producers) trade at far more conservative valuations relative to their reserves.
HE1 might have an interesting prospect, but without CONSITENT LONG TERM well test data, infrastructure clarity, and clear regulatory pathways, this valuation narrative feels more like a helium-filled balloon—likely to deflate under real-world conditions.