Member Info for ZENGAS

Interesting piece yesterday from AI on Institutional investors not supporting any buy out or merger if it is deemed undervalued. This was mooted many months ago by PIs here who were concerned about any cheap takeover of SAVE.

Institutions here are averaging about 35p and hold some 60% while the top 20 shareholders hold 80% in total. Capricorn currently valued at £730m (230p) and institutions want an additional $500m (about £400m) on the table ie 60% more.

29/8/22

'Tullow Oil boss Rahul Dhir runs into opposition over his Capricorn merger plan

One after another, the shareholders of British energy company Capricorn are coming out against a merger they consider contrary to their interests.

Could it be that Palliser Capital chief investment officer James Smith has put an end to the plans of Tullow Oil chief executive Rahul Dhir to merge his company with Capricorn (formerly Cairn Energy)? An eight-page document obtained by Africa Intelligence, which is dated 8 August and signed by Smith, sets out the reasons why Palliser, a shareholder in Capricorn, plans to oppose the project. In it, Smith argues that the operation will add no value and simply give Tullow a relatively easy way of refinancing itself. He also claims that the proposed merger "materially undervalues" Capricorn.

Currently, all its output comes from Egypt. Egypt's potential, moreover, is one of the main arguments used by Smith to back his claim that Capricorn has been undervalued in the merger plan and that Tullow should put another $500m on the table. Palliser has followed the example of Legal & General Investment Management and Kite Lake Capital in taking up a position against the merger. The three investment companies together represent some 16% of Capricorn's capital.

Panic stations

Dhir, who was previously CEO at Delonex Energy and took charge of Tullow Oil in 2020, had been hoping to have the merger plan approved before the end of 2022, but the revolt of Capricorn shareholders opposed to the deal could spread and slow the operation down. Legal preparations for the merger project have cost the company millions of dollars in fees for lawyers and consultants. For Dhir, the deal was a lifeline, with Capricorn's sound financial situation allowing Tullow to re-establish its own financial health. Tullow has already sold its assets in Uganda to TotalEnergies for $500m. It is struggling, however, to arrange an early sale of its permits on Kenya's Lake Turkana.

A defeat on the Capricorn project would be a severe blow for the executive, who is determined to find a way to refinance the group's debt, allowing him subsequently to make a glorious exit as its rescuer.

When contacted, Tullow did not comment on the opposition of Capricorn shareholders to the merger. However, a spokesperson for the company told Africa Intelligence that "Tullow strongly believes that this deal has a compelling strategic and financial rationale for both companies".

Deal clsoure is undoubtedly the most important thing here. Someone asked recently if broker targets were ever met (Div ?).

A-dv fn doesn't have the fundamentals data correct for Kosmos at all - showing a m/cap of £2.4b on an outdated 389m shares but Berenbergs targets met and extended again.

Checking from Kosmos own 8/8/22 Q2 results data and thankfully LSE have the data correct.

There is 456m shares in issue (475m fully diluted). Current share price 625p = m/cap of £2.85b (£2.96b f/diluted).

Net debt end Q2 = $2.1b (£1.75b).
EV = £4.6b. (£4.71b f/diluted).

Q2 Production 62,200 boepd and 580 mmboe P2.

Production is hoped to increase by 50% in 2024 and as such Berenberg have increased their price target from 670p to 710p on 25/8/22 which would increase the target m/cap to £3.2b (£3.37b f/diluted).
---------------------------------------------

SAVE by comparrison
1,306m shares (1420m f/diluted) @ 34p today = £444m m/cap = 15.5% of KOS (£482m f/diluted) = 16.5% of KOS.

Post deal estimated net debt $566m in 4 months time = 27% of KOS.
183 mmboe P2 (Post sanction R3 East = 200 mmboe+) = 35% of KOS.

On the basis of 20,000 boepd from Accugas, the transformational Chad deal of 22,500 bopd this gives about $1.1b revenue v $2.4b for KOS at current prices ie about 45% of KOS.

The July 80p price target from Shore Capital and the old June 86p price target from FinnCap (before the renewables) represent £1.5b - £1.6b EV or 33% of KOS current valuation which imo shows the fair valuation gap to close on deal completion ie 34p to 80-86p.

With more hydrocarbon assets to come, even expanding the net debt in line with KOS, they could narrow the gap further to a similar KOS current production level through acquisition, improved production from Chad and the results of the past number of gas deals.

KOS current £2.85b m/cap and an expanded net debt headroom for Save (versus $565m now) shares shows how much of a valuation could be targeted on further deal flow that we were told about.

I wonder if we were one of the 20 bills adopted ?

Chad: the CNT closes its first ordinary session
Alwihda Info | By Anass Ali Moussa - June 30, 2022

In his closing speech for the first ordinary session of 2022, today June 30 at the Palace of Democracy, the President of the National Transitional Council (PCNT), Dr. Haroun Kabadi believes that despite the diversity of the corporations that make up the CNT, the advisers nationals have been able to transcend their political, associative and corporate affiliation to devote themselves solely to their mission in the service of the Nation.

During this first ordinary session 2022, the CNT examined and adopted 20 bills in the field mainly of administration, especially justice, military justice, the national police, the orientation of the system of intelligence and the protection of defense secrets, the administrative organization of the territory of the Republic of Chad, the protection of vulnerable children, the environment and the retirement of soldiers and civilians.

As part of the monitoring of government action, two arrests relating to issues related to the dilapidated state of the road network, as well as the situation of Chadian employees in Chinese companies and Esso, the spillage of oil in nature, the sale of shares of Exxon Mobil to Savannanh Energy and other oil projects in progress, have been addressed to the government, specifies the PCNT.

In the security field, the CNT is pleased to note that security has been strengthened and controlled within our national borders (...), noted the PCNT, Dr. Haroun Kabadi.

https://www.alwihdainfo.com/Tchad-le-CNT-cloture-sa-premiere-session-ordinaire_a114809.html

I just checked and you're right, it's the same as the June AGM.

Given the Finncap coverage released just 4 days ago on 15th July is quite detailed on the individual costings of the Niger and Chad renewables projects, they must have had significant guidance from Save as well as the expected timetable for the acquisition completion.

Page 8 of the 18 page document doc -

Chad-Cameroon acquisition Q3.
Doba drilling looks to be early-mid Q1.

Niger R3 well test beginning Q1.
Niger R3 exploration mid Q1.
Niger EPF & pipeline construction looks like late Q1.
Niger First oil Q4.

AK said a month ago they would update on Niger plans. Given the FinnCap guidance - is that what he meant of news (back then) in 3-4 weeks ? So will it be confirmed come September.

If i remember correctly the well test oil could be trucked/sold.

My correction to previous post (amended figures which ommitted the net debt reduction impact) and perhaps this might give an idea of the timescale required for 200p basis.

First time we get a detailed look at the renewables this morning -

On the 240 MW Niger wind farm they give $0.7m/MW development cost with EBITDA of $30m/yr and and an IRR of 15%. The others have a different pricing but on average 20% IRR.

From that, if the average EBITDA is $125k per MW, a 3GW target should be possible for $375m/yr EBITDA from the renewables side.

The risked price is now up to 109p while unrisked is 148p. In todays Niger exploration coverage it assumes 76 mmbls (ie 19p) of new 2P reserves from Niger exploration to get to 148p.

On average the 740 MW of mixed renewables have a risked 7.9p and when sanctioned/operational should rise to 12.7p. (sanctionable next year and first power 2.5 yrs from now approx).

30p net debt attached to the current assets is estimated to be eliminated in about 2.5 years (at least 10p/yr next).

That would increase the risked price to 139p and unrisked to 178p
For another 22p of unrisked to come through would require rougly another 88 mmbls of 2P oil.

Overall on the basis of 200p being met, it needs about 164 mmbls of new 2P to be found using FinnCaps $4.40/b over the next 12-24 months etc from either Niger or Chad or combined, along with the currently announced renewables starting up. (which account for 12.7p in Finncaps coverage).

So on a timescale consider in post 6971 re CPR as to where we are/time wise in needing what i see as about 164 additional bls).

" 1) Instead of 33 mmbo 2C so far, it could be as high as up to 109 mmbo from 4 of the existing 5 discoveries (P394).

2) Phase 2 gives 11 wells but 3 of these are on existing wells into deeper targets (Bushiya, Amdigh and Eridal P395).

3) The 'existing' wells with the deeper targets could offer up to 180 mmbo recoverable in total which could be a big step up from 33 mmbo.

In total, Phase 2 drilling is for a net mid case recoverable UNRISKED of 342 mmbls to 1.04 billion high case recoverable (P395) on top of the figures of 109 mmbo in '1' above. "

Going beyond that
A) On average every 100 MW of mixed renewables announced is averaging out about 1.06p risked to 1.7p unrisked.
B) Given that they have already announced 740 MW and they plan to announce more material deals - remember what AK said about wanting a slice of that massive once in a generational opportunity sized market - getting to 3GW should add another 24p risked or 38p unrisked.
(I already set out in adv fn 7033 how 350p could realistically be achieved for Niger alone. 200p is my personal target, but all things considered the potential clearly exists beyond that but perhaps on a longer time scale, though more acquisitions are in the pipeline, substantial gas sales spare capacity and if the OPL310 stakes come in to our possession it will imo continue to be revaluated upwards by

Using a l/term oil price of $60/b from 1/1/24

R3 sufficient cash to self fund development. No plans for either partnering or equity funding.

Accugas at advanced stage of refinancing. Bond issue well advanced. $100m in principle committment from one Nigerian fund.

First time we get a detailed look at the renewables this morning -
On the 240 MW Niger wind farm they give $0.7m/MW development cost with EBITDA of $30m/yr and and an IRR of 15%. The others have a different pricing but on average 20% IRR.

From that, if the average EBITDA is $125k per MW, a 3GW target should be possible for $375m/yr EBITDA from the renewables side.

The risked price is now up to 109p while unrisked is 148p.

On average the 740 MW of mixed renewables have a risked 7.9p and when sanctioned/operational should rise to 12.7p.

On average every 100 MW of mixed renewables announced is averaging out about 1.06p risked to 1.7p unrisked.

Given that they have already announced 740 MW and they plan to announce more material deals - remember what AK said about wanting a slice of that massive once in a generational opportunity sized market - getting to 3GW should add another 24p risked or 38p unrisked.

In todays Niger exploration coverage it assumes 76 mmbls (ie 19p) of new 2P reserves from Niger exploration to get to 148p.

If you add that to the pipeline of renewables it would take the unrisked target up to 186p based on approx 3GW and an addition of a new 76 mmbls from Niger (or basically Chad).

Different combinations for growth potential but to close my 200p target would for me now assume approx 3GW and 130 mmbls of new Niger (or new Chad/successful Lekoil deal) reserves in total.

More divestment opportunities to come through.

You can see how the target value is consistently growing and should significantly continue to do so based on their planned renewables assets along with the sheer size of the 2.6 billion bls risked Niger exploration upside headroom, to achieve what i am personally looking for.

Imo/Dyor as always.

Announcement this am of Transglobe and Vaalco merger
Both companies about 20-25% off their recent highs.

Transglobe m/cap £235m. Vaalco m/cap £296m
The combination of VAALCO and TransGlobe will create a world-class African-focused E&P Company supporting sustainable growth and stockholder returns

Combined 2022 mid-point production guidance of 19,100 barrels of oil equivalent per day (" boepd ") on a net revenue interest ("NRI") (96 per cent oil & liquids) and 24,400 boepd on a working interest ("WI") basis(2) ;
Combined proved plus probable (2P) reserves on an NRI basis of 51 MMboe (90 per cent oil) and 66 MMboe (91 per cent oil) on a WI basis (as at January 1, 2022 in the case of VAALCO and as at December 31, 2021 in the case of TransGlobe)(2) ; Combined = 117 mmboe P2.

Committment to pay $28m annual dividend.
Net cash positive $53m
New entity = £530m m/cap.
117 mmboe 2P + 24,200 boepd production.
========================

Save estimated 40,000 boepd 183 mmboe P2 (should be 210+ mmboe P2 once R3 sanctioned). Seperate pipeline income and gas processing/transport business
M/cap £400m + $570m net debt (falling to zero in circa 2-2.5 yrs).

Strip out the debt and on the basis of only the Chad Cameroon oil production (no C-C pipeline tarrif inclusion or Accugas) surely worth a similar £530m or 40p/share alone with the rest driving towards the ball park 80-86p value given by Shore Capital and Finncap ??

Latest share holdings updated yesterday of 3% or more - does anyone have the previous holdings list to see if any major changes ?

The following 8 (including the *EBT shares) represent 61% plus another 4.4% for the directors.

AK recently re-iterated that the institutions/top 20 hold 80% overall which is a high figure.

Abrdn Plc 151,996,033 = 11.64%
Ingalls & Snyder LLC 128,307,500 = 9.82%
TT International Investment Management 116,566,261 = 8.92%
*Cavendish Fiduciary Limited 99,858,893 = 7.65%
Premier Miton Investors 96,128,672 = 7.36%
Capital Research & Management 96,128,672 = 7.36%
JO Hambro Capital Management 62,711,271 = 4.80%
RWC Asset Advisors 44,821,106 = 3.43%

Since the former President Debys' death over a year ago and under the transitional government of his son, the peace talks have been underway in Doha for many weeks with the various rebel groups in the north and the main groups committed to a a way forward.

The 18 month transitional military government period ends in October and from what i beleive, Debys son and the current government members will be eligilbe to stand for a new government.

As for SHT, Debys son, transitional president, will be seen to have tackled corruption despite close friendships and can say under his present government he has signed a significant investment deal in bringing up to 500 MW of power which they say will be transformational for the country. I would think that the oil acquisitions are tied to this in making the power deals happen and represent significant investment potential in the years ahead that even the British government via their ambassador has commented on.

Worth remembering that a higher proportion of SHTs income comes from other oil fields and stakes with CNPC, Glencore etc, rather than just the Exxon/Petronas acquisitions.

The Energy & Petroleum minister- "We are already engaged to provide all the support needed for implementing these projects and having the first power delivered to our population and our industries in line with the State plan for enhancing the power offering in our country."

The UK amabassador to Chad" "I am delighted that a British company, Savannah Energy, is making such a substantial investment in renewable energy in Chad. Chad has plentiful resources of renewable energy which, through investments like this, can be harnessed to develop the economy and improve the lives of Chadians. This is a further example of UK commitment to Chad."

AK "I would like to thank General Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno, President of the Transitional Military Council, President of the Republic of Chad and Head of State; His Excellency Djerassem Le Bemadjiel, Minister of Petroleum and Energy of the Republic of Chad, and the wider Chadian government for the enthusiastic support we have received in relation to making these projects happen".

Perhaps this scandal is holding things up given the people involved and given the appeals for greater leaving bonus ie $30m v Exxons $15m offer as reported in AI.

I'll repost this from AI for context as Boy was one who wanted the deal slowed down and maybe opposed it (since arrested). Seems there is about $20m possibly embezzelled from SHT the state oil Co who would be our sole 25% partner. SHT and Banking officials arrested.

24/6/22
"The board of Cameroon Oil Transportation Co (COTCO) and Tchad Oil Transportation Co (TOTCO), the two companies that transport crude oil between Doba and Kribi in Cameroon, was supposed to meet on 24 June to make the transfer of ExxonMobil's stake (40%) to Savannah Energy official. However, in a 14 June letter (see our document) addressed to COTCO and TOTCO managers, Chad's oil minister of Oil Djerassem Le Bemadjiel stated that the transfer had not yet been approved and would be suspended until further notice.

"Disagreement among Kaka's ministers

According to our sources, Le Bemadjiel, who supports the transfer, was pressured to write this missive by two Chadian politicians: the president's now ex-private secretary Idriss Youssouf Boy - who was replaced on 23 June by Ismael Souleymane Lony - and finance minister Tahir Hamid Nguilin. Boy, who until now had wielded remarkable influence over President Mahamat Idriss Déby, aka Kaka, reportedly asked Nguilin, an ally, to find any way possible to slow down the $626m transfer deal between ExxonMobil and Savannah. This despite the fact that ExxonMobil is scheduled to pull out of the country on 1 July.

Boy had wanted to pressure the American major into increasing the withdrawal bonus it has agreed to pay. As we revealed, ExxonMobil offered $15m but the authorities want twice that amount."

4/7/22
Chad unleashes major oil industry graft probe
N’DJAMENA (AFP) – Investigators in Chad have swooped on senior officials in the oil and financial sectors in the past 10 days in a major anti-corruption operation, the government told AFP yesterday.

The arrested suspects are alleged to have stolen around XAF13 billion (USD21 million) from the state-run oil company SHT and the country’s spy agencies, according to Communications Minister Abderaman Koulamallah.

“Many people have been arrested and some have been freed in the context of the investigation into financial embezzlement of XAF13 billion at SHT,” Koulamallah told AFP.

“The case is currently being handled by the judiciary,” and some of the accused will eventually be brought before a judge at the end of the preliminary investigation, he added.
Among those arrested are the powerful former private secretary of General Mahamat Deby, Idriss Youssouf Boy, a cousin and childhood friend of the head of state who is considered one of his closest aides.

Michel Boayam and Tahir Issa Ali Souleymane were also arrested as part of the investigation and immediately dismissed from their posts as director general and deputy director of the SHT.

https://borneobulletin.com.bn/chad-unleashes-major-oil-industry-graft-probe/

9/7/22
Chad: Wide-ranging investigation into embezzlement at national oil company.
A group of senior officials from Chad's oil and banking sectors have been arrested over the past 10 days as part of an investigation into embezzlement at the national oil company, the government said on Sunday.

https://www.africanews.com/2022/07/04/chad-wide-ranging-investigation-into-embezzlement-at-national-oil-company/

Ahead of Phase 2 Niger drilling, this is how potentially close we are to my barrel figures needed derived from Shore and FinnCap - ie "To get 100p value from Niger we need about 388 mmbls from FinnCaps pricing and 358 mmbls via Shore Capitals alternative".

From the CPR -

1) Instead of 33 mmbo 2C so far, it could be as high as up to 109 mmbo from 4 of the existing 5 discoveries (P394).

2) Phase 2 gives 11 wells but 3 of these are on existing wells into deeper targets (Bushiya, Amdigh and Eridal P395).

3) The 'existing' wells with the deeper targets could offer up to 180 mmbo recoverable in total which could be a big step up from 33 mmbo.

In total, Phase 2 drilling is for a net mid case recoverable UNRISKED of 342 mmbls to 1.04 billion high case recoverable (P395) on top of the figures of 109 mmbo in '1' above.

Low and medium risk is attributed to about 2/3rds of both the mid and high recoverable case. High risk is to the other 1/3rd in both mid/high recoverable cases.

As for overall recoverable reserves potential -

In the Mid case - UNRISKED recoverable is 6.8 billion bls. RISKED recoverable is 2.695 billion bls (P396).

In the High case - UNRISKED recoverable is 9.98 billion bls. RISKED recoverable is 3.86 billion bls. (P396).

Roll on some news on this, indicated post results as about any day now on the way forward.

I've looked in depth at the 2 broker notes versus my own expectations.

Also consider the impact of rapidly reducing net debt in the projected timeline on these current assets in terms of further share price growth.

FinnCap 8th June 22.
After debt of 30.3p, Risked = 86p. Unrisked 115p.
Net debt to fall by $191m next yr end = + 10.6p
Further fall of $244m by end 2024 = +13.6p.
FinnCaps Targets for end next year should improve to 96p risked and 125p unrisked.
End 2024 = 109p risked and 138p unrisked.

======================================

Shore Capital 11th July 22.
After debt of 31p, Risked = 80p. Unrisked 131p.
Net debt to fall by $233m next year end = + 13p.
End 2024 not stated but on the above, should imo be practically net debt free = + 17p.
Targets therefore for next year end should improve to 93p risked and 144p unrisked.
End 2024 = 110p risked and 160p unrisked.

==================================

For Phase 2 Niger discoveries

FinnCap assume 76 mmbls ($340m) = 17.9p unrisked and have it risked down to 2.7p which works out at just 15%.

Shore assume $332m = 18.4p (but dont state the bls expected) and risked down to 4p ie 20%.

However using the stated $4.60 by FinnCap and $5/b by Shore for new Niger bls -that works out on the RISKED CASE as FinnCap expecting 11.5 mmbls while Shore expect 13 mmbls approx against the CCG Roberston CPR of some 2.6 billions bls risked recoverable.

To get 100p value from Niger we need about 388 mmbls from FinnCaps pricing and 358 mmbls via Shore Capitals alternative.

Amdigh may hold a lot more oil re pressure communication/zones not yet included seperate to the deeper target they are going to drill. Things already done to bear in mind that may eat into that target bls figure in acheiving 100p/value.

Together with Niger - or alternatively - there is room to increase P2 reserves from the Chad-Cameroon assets given the extensive 2C and it's own exploration potential. We definitely have assets that offer low risk exploration.

Finally, reserves aren't the only driver - Upside from new Nigerian gas contracts and pipeline throughput upside in Chad/Cameroon and low cost acquisitions (eg Lekoil etc with substantial 2C/reserves if materialised). Shore Cap are only working on 135 mmcf/d this year and 140 mmcf/d next ie 100 mmcf/d below assumed full CPF capability.

Key right now is confirmation of Chad Cameroon deal done and dusted but the above 2 reports cement my 200p target expectation more than ever. My opinion, DYOR as ever.

Shore Capital Year end net debt 2022 = $554m. 2023 = $321m and full year 2023 revenue of $1.1b and EPS of $12.8c (about 10p).

By comparrison FinnCaps net debt profile was $569m for 2022 and $378m for 2023 and $134m for end 2024.

Shore Capitals figures shows a $57m net debt improvement by end of 2023 and should on their assumptions be debt free by end 2024 ie 2.5 years on these existing assets.

Pencilling in end Sept for CC completion and bring the effective purchase price down to $325m from $375m.

80p risked target. 131p unrisked using threir exchange rate of £1/$1.25 Net debt = 31p so as thats paid down on these assets, the risked/unrisked should both increase materiallly to about 110p risked.

Should attract further upside from acquisitions and they have nothing other than 4p attributed for future Niger exploration upside.

11/7/22 Shore Capital

Building a whopper

Despite a market cap exceeding £400m and significant institutional involvement, Savannah is only covered by a handful of analysts and we beleive that our reintroduced forecats (reflecting current commodity prices and anticipated 3rd quarter completion of the Chad Cameroon resverse takeover deal) frame an outstanding proposition that has yet to be fully appreciated. Particularly noteworthy, in our opinion, is the whopping 55% free cash flow yield (indicated by our FY23F forecasts) and our 80p/share risked NAV esitmate implying c. 150% upside from here. BUY.
Ahead of potential follow on acquisitions, our updated fully reflect the impact of the Chad Cameroon reverse takeover with potential commercial production from Niger providing scope for upgrades to FY23 earnings.

Took a small 100k at 30.374 after a fair decent pullback and it's not unsurprising in these markets and after a fairly steep rise.

Hopefully (i say) that when the Chad Cameroon acquisitions go through, we might see a further $50-$60m off the settlement price to the end of June given the high oil price over the past 6 months and still $101/b today a week into July.

New gas contracts maybe worth $20m+ that we didn't have this time last year ?

That's broken down from the published valuation metrics on Save by F/Cap.

I don't worry about the swings and roundabouts on the oil price (Still over $100/b ) of which the strong investment case is made even at a base $60/b oil.

We know what happens in low price environments = low investment = perpetual drive to higher oil prices/shortages as a result and renewables still along way from remotely bridging the gap.

No new news via AI at all.

Tier you need to keep an eye on the overall market. Regardless of the oil price and share price, Save has tremendous growth potential ahead and to me i'm focussed purely on where that growth should come from and even before renewables kick in some 2.5 - 3 years from now. Save are much less indebted and much less reliant on the oil price for over half their FCF. In addition it's based on l/term $60/b oil of which there is a current target price of 86p allowing also 30p for debt which reduces to near zero in just over 2 years on these current assets (about 115p). It also hasn't included the impact of the new gas contracts having started up.

Also every 76 mmbls of new Niger oil is valued at 17.9p/share. Reach 225 mmbls and that adds some 50p value upside which improves the old target to around 136p + debt reduction = over 160p. Hopefully as was promised last month, news on Niger way forward should be close.

As we are based on $60/b long term oil, price assumptions for new oil/gas acquisitions should still be relatively cheap as majors divest. Also another hydrocarbon acquisition in this 2nd half expected.

There are a few good artictles/interviews with both Bezos and Buffet re low share prices in growth companies bearing little reality to where the company is actually at and it provides food for though against all the market gyrations, sentiment and psychology amongst investors/traders. It's keeping an eye on the bigger picture, the sum of the parts and what differentiates one investment against the others (I use TLW/KOS as my Save comparrisons).

This was my post on 24/6/22 @ 09:49 with today in brackets.
' Most here know my comparative growth thoughts on Save v Tullow and Kosmos.
As for the Save retrace -
Tullow 61 now 47.9 - down 21.5% (43p down 33%)
Kosmos 665 now 507 - down 24%. (480p down 27.5%)
Save 40.9 now 32 - down 21.75% ' (31.5p down 23%).

It's totally unconnected i'm afraid. It's IMF and external debt restructuring.