Member Info for ZENGAS

So that's our new head of exploration in Malaysia just joined with a substantial track record.

Has just come from the Sapura-OMV joint venture after 5 years.

Before that over 5 years with Sapura.

Interesting that he was involved with SK310, SK408 and our own block 2C in the last decade which just never got drilled.

The Sapura-OMV JV was created in 2019 and OMV sold their 50% stake in the JV a few weeks ago for $900m.

TotalEnergies Signs an Agreement for the Acquisition of OMV’s Upstream Gas Assets in Malaysia

PARIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 31, 2024-- Regulatory News:

TotalEnergies (Paris:TTE) (LSE:TTE) (NYSE:TTE) has signed an agreement with OMV to acquire its 50% interest in Malaysian independent gas producer and operator SapuraOMV Upstream Sdn (SapuraOMV) for a consideration of $903 million (including the transfer of a $350 million loan granted by OMV to SapuraOMV), subject to customary closing adjustments.

SapuraOMV’s main assets are its 40% operated interest in block SK408 and 30% operated interest in block SK310, both located offshore Sarawak in Malaysia. In 2023, SapuraOMV’s operated production (100%) was about 500 Mcf/d of natural gas, feeding the Bintulu LNG plant operated by Petronas, as well as 7 kb/d of condensates. On block SK408, the development of the Jerun gas field is on track for startup in the second half of the year 2024

https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/full?dockey=600-202401310912BIZWIRE_USPRX____20240131_BW403455-1

and

'Block SK 408 contains seven discoveries from eight wells drilled. Five of the seven are understood to be commercial, and three are in the development stage – Gorek, Larak and Bakong, which have resource sizes ranging from 0.5 Tcf to 1.5 Tcf.

The jewel in the crown in Block SK 408 is the 2016 Jerun gas discovery, which contains up to 3 Tcf.'

https://sapuraenergy.com/sapura-ep-keeping-low-profile-high-rewards/

Basically that's a $900m sale of 20% in SK408 and 15% in SK310 equal to net production of around 18,000 boepd.

SK310 (B15 field) has produced about 68% of its reserves according to one energy report.

Are we talking about 1.2 - 2 tcf net sale ? There's also a small interest in a Mexican oil discovery of which they are a minority partner.

LBEs Block 2C with Kertang estimated at 9 TCF mid recoverable. Multiple other prospects and 2 are each half the size of Kertang and covered by 3D so perhaps 15 TCF and if 20% retained on farmout could mean 1.8 - 3 TCF net target.

Performance has been slow to say the least but let's hope we are on the cusp of a transformational deal and potentially $1.8b combined annual revenues if all goes through as hoped for.

It's why i haven't been tempted at all to switch or sell my stock paticularly while there could be significant news still to come re Chad decision and other deals.

I don't disagree with the frustration and i know a few went to pastures new over a year ago but i've kept an eye on 2 stocks that an other poster selected while i decided to stay firmly put no matter how supposedly attractive they looked at the time compared to here.

PRD down near 40% this morning to around 8p while I3E has also slumped from 21.15 to 8.6p and a substantial reduction in dividend as well, so at least at 26.25p my money (for now) hasn't performed any worse in that period. I'd like to think a deal here will materially re-rate the company whereas the other two stocks now need time and work to improve their share prices over the next number of months or even much longer ? and where perhaps SAVE is tantalisingly close to completion ?

I've used 'nameless' as the poster because its not intended to be personal in any way - merely pointing out my rationale for not budging/company belief and reflecting on the performance on those 2 stocks if i had followed suit.

'Nameless' - I3E Price: 21.15 - 22 Dec 2022 07:26

' Phew. Finally the RNS We've all been waiting for. Excellent news. Just done and re-checked my numbers. I'll be getting over £1000 or month gross and net income next year. That will do very nicely towards my pension income. Thank you Majid.'

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Nameless : PRD Price: 8.25 - 16 Dec 2022 10:12

'Happy to participate in these at just over 8p. (and) Two of those blocks were mine. 8.11p and 8.14p.'

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Nameless : PRD Price: 6.00 - 17 Mar 2023 12:02

'So, I take from today's RNS that the Best estimate of total gas resource, net to PRD, of 615bcf, has a prospective full value using a 25% COS for commerciality, of some £246mn, using the valuation metric of $2/bcf, at today's fx rate. That's 10x today's total MC.'

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Nameless: PRD Price: 12.75.5 Feb 2024 08:00

'We are going into a news-rich period in PRD's life cycle now. Hold onto those golden tickets for dear life, tempting as it may be to trade, take profits after a sudden jump or become obsessed with near term developments.'

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Trustilie

My thoughts are - If SAVE wants to avoid cancellation from AIM then the simplest thing to do is publish the admission document.

What is missing from it that can't be published ? (seems to be not dependent on Govt approval as necessary and none of the other acquisitions were - ahead of previous adm docs, Nigeria, Chad.)

It's already clear that when they announced the deal, the adm doc would come followed later by govt approval - says so in the original RNS.

It was intended to be published in H1 23, (RNS 12/12/23), again reiterated for publication H1 23 (RNS 13/4/23). RNSd again for adm doc publication by 30/9/23 (RNS 27/7/23).

Since then no mention of the adm document -

Then completion moved to 1/2/24 (RNS 14/12/23) - specifically mentions completion with no mention of the adm doc.

Again no mention of the adm doc when it was moved to latest timeline of 2/4/24 (RNS 1/2/24) but completion with reciept of in-country approvals.

Is that the reason we may be close and why there's an agreement from AIM this past two times of 8 week extensions ?

Surely if AIM says either publish or don't and be cancelled, then the Adm doc should come to prevent that.

Regardless of a short term gyration to the s/p with the adm doc issued, it would surely rectify itself when govt approval is given ?

Maurel and Prom announce the Assala deal on 15/8/23.

With what looks to be within the 3 month time frame and which i take as when the govt and Cemac is notified, the Gabon govt say they take the decision to exercise their pre-emption right on 25/11/23.

M&P update the market on 25/1/24 re the Govts pre-emption and their right to do so.

M&P update the market today noting yesterdays signing of the deal between the Govt and Carlyle for the Assala assets and the end of the deal for them and done/dusted in 6 months.

At no point have Save informed the market of any pre-emption by the S.Sudan government nor has S. Sudan said they were pre-empting the deal in the last 15 months.

I would have thought that if S.Sudan had said they were pre-empting the deal, then SAVE would have had to tell the market by now of that fact.

I beleive like Accugas/Nigeria they are continuing on the so called (lengthy) workstreams and approvals - mentioned (on 1/2/24) by AI to be concluded in a few weeks and backed up by AIM extensions.

Thoughts or views anyone ?

More dilution post consolidation which I expected and was clearly sign posted and today for around £1m net. Not even clear exactly how the cash will be split but I expect they were running on air as I posted awhile back given working capital needs.

Still paying the bills by issuing shares. £84k in 2.6m shares or 1% dilution. Shareholders powerless to reign this in.

Seperately this has to be one of the biggest assets landed for a company of this size - ie Block 2A (not counting the hunt for other Asian production assets).

To have 52.5% of a 12,000 km2 block of this size with over 6,000 km2 of 3D seismic not to mention 17,500 km lines of 2D is phenomenal.

The cost to carry out that amount of seismic would run into the tens of $millions alone along with the extensive geochemistry work confirming very high concentrations of methane and low CO2. That can't be understated.

At about 17 mins into the interview James Menzies says they beleive there could be in excess of 9 TCF recoverable for Kertang.

At 18:30 he states that 'there are multiple structures surrounding Kertang that are also extremely big - it's just that they are dwarfed by this giant.'

When you refer back to the Topaz slides particularly page 6 you can see '3 main identified prospects' which includes Kertang. The two other structures are in very close proximity to Kertang with the other 2 combined having an area roughly the size of Kertang itself. All 3 are covered by 2,900 km2 of 3D seismic.

Given the analogue description to the smaller 6 TCF Kasawari field - taking into account the 3 main structures, there could well be potential for 15+ TCF recoverable here.

Retaining 10-20% post farmout would be potentially huge given a ready gas market.

Not since Cove acquired 8.5% offshore Rovuma from struggling Artumas in 2009 has there been an opportunity as big imo.

Their share price was 9p in 2009. If you were patient, Dolmens Brian Gallagher called it a speculative buy on tues 9th March 2010 and a target of 59p.

By the time Shell had bid in Feb 2012 there was an estimated 20+ tcf recoverable estimated. Shell bid $1.8b while PTTEP of Thailand pipped them with a $1.9b takeout at 240p post tax.

Coves 8.5% share of 20-30 TCF = 1.7 - 2.55 TCF.

Reataining 10-20% of block 2A for LBE could mean on the 3 prospects covered by 3D, there might be 1.5 - 3 TCF net to play for here irrespective of all other assets.

So did anyone know beforehand exactly when the JAPEX JV was coming 2/5/23 - (9 months ago) ?

or the first production assets on 3/7/23 ?

Likwise nobody will know until the next announcement when the current assets under review are agreed upon and announced to the market.

Japex did not get involved for fun. They have to be mutually agreed assets and there is a sizeable pot of $100m which can effectively be doubled through debt or RBL lending. With a 5 year window and for the ability of assets to be potentially paid down in 2-3 years from the effective transaction date, we could be looking at $3-400m available in total 2 years on.

It's hard to say Ian.

Some of these institutions have major funds under management and while holdings in SAVE for the top 9 including the EBT are just shy of 60% it might not register that high at all on their overall FUM.

For a few weeks to a few months this either going to transform from $280m to nearly $1.8b yearly revenues with a significant debt reduction (we hope) on the transaction cost 2.25 years on ? and IIs seeing a more realistic valuation/re-rating with perhaps further deals in the pipeline in the short-medium term for continued growth ?.

If they were to pay a $50m div (from $1.8b revs) it's about 12% at the current valuation at 26p to 4% at 78p which imo would be affordable relative to low debt and a $70/b oil price.

Maybe a need to wait and see the expansion plans re reneweables - would IIs pull their money without seeing the details of that growth arm/performance next few years. On the above they'd have to now pull that money and look for opportunities anew and success while Save might be on the cusp of transformation. They may not react in the same way as PIs re access to capital. Just imo.

To me it looks like they want govt approval prior to even issuing the adm document given the wording this morning. In no deals have i seen approval needed prior to an adm document so perhaps that's SAVEs stipulation ?

From Trustilies AI article yesterday, i wonder where did AI pck up on completion expected in the next few weeks to print thar re S.Sudan -

"In the next few weeks, moreover, it is also expected to complete the purchase of the interests of Malaysia's Petronas group in South Sudan in an operation it announced in 2022."

I still don't think it necesarily means though that it could take right up to the 2nd April and could come through before that.

If there's already 2 years to be deducted from the settlement at 50k bopd using $20/b it's $30m/month or $720m to the end of December 2023 with another $90m this quarter to end of March imo. I still think that up to $250m may have been allowed for contingencies on higher oil prices and/or production rates spread over x years.

Don’t know if any significance can be attached to this ahead of the Adm doc but the Shareholdings page on the Save website updated today.

64.36% for institutions and directors

Apologies it was an RNS release.

It's a presentation plain and simple that the asset is being showcased there and non RNS.

Not meant to set the market alight.

I don't think it's replacing Gabon with Chad nor do i think why would SAVE even entertain this Gabon/Assala transaction.

I remember it was specifically asked what level of boepd production did they want to go to and how much net debt they would take on and be comfortable with.

Reply was, It wasn't coming down to achieving a target boepd figure for boepd sake. Boepd deals etc were only going to be acquired on a risk/reward value accretive basis and they didn't think in terms of net debt and how much - but risk - and how the overall debt per asset was ringfenced and financed.

So on that basis i don't think it's down to just securing 2-3 deals but the right opportunistic deals and how they are bought and paid for and risk. It's as easy to run a 50k bopd opperation as it can be 5 or 10k.

If they feel capable of running the asset on the above basis then i think it's fairly well considered - they have run over about 40 odd deals i think 27 in 2022 and 21 in 2021 from memory.

They have the authority to seek financing of up to $2.5 billion built in for a good number of years without seeking shareholder approval for greater than that.

On that basis and how they have described it, i would not be surprised that they will consider to seek out major deals.

To me, Chad is running in the background on a compensation basis for X amount of loss/damage times x years. I don't see that being shrugged off as a bad deal without recompense but to be taken in our stride and surely the lawyers to the deal have provided water tight advice and some level of guarantee ?.

Just my opinion on S.Sudan, but on a $1250m total figure for circa 50k bopd and the AI rumoured 300 mmbls - that figure should be well under half if the effective transaction date is 1/1/22 (though as ever we won't know the full details until an adm doc).

With that S Sudan present cost factor in mind, it wouldn't come as a surprise to see them continuing to hunt for other deals in this environment as other companies continue to do.

Following on from S.Sudan they said they hoped to close at least 1 further hydrocarbon acquistion by last year end - ie "at least one" - so 2-3+ would come as no surprise to me over time.

Not all plain sailing for any of them. It's not unique to AK/Save but certainly frustrating being a shareholder.

Sepl has sufferred over the years from lost and shut in production over oil theft and major pipeline shut-ins causing force-majuere. In addition their gas build up has been slower than expected. Every trick in the book re court cases and attempts to kick the CEO out of the country - pretty hair raising on a one country focus.

Seplats deal with Exxon is still not cleared yet in Nigeria. In Oct 2023 they were still confident of it being approved.

First announced back on 25th Feb 2022 so almost 2 years and with an effective transaction date of 1/1/21 so now over 3 years in the making although some of the agreed terms have changed a little due to the deal taking so long and Exxons ongoing involvement.

M&P ran into problems with it's takeover of Wentworth first time around and now the Assala dea in Jeapordy.

Exxons sale on Zafiro turned sour and the FPSO sent for scrap.

Zenith relatively small assets in Tunisia (compared to Saves Chad) and suing for just over $85m.

Even Kosmos and it's partner Tullow had to go to arbitration claims to resolve their dispute.

You only have to look outside Africa and Cairns history in suing India for hundreds of millions.

After todays news re Save and others chasing part of the Asssala (Gabon) assets it will be interesting (whether S.Sudan completes or not), to see where Save can establish itself on the value ladder. We still have no mention of the additional 'at least one more' hydrocarbon asset that was to be announced before end of 2023.

Current m/cap £348m and how net debt position looks 2 years on from possible effective S.Sudan Petronas date and 1 year of lost Chad production/pipeline interest re compensation outcome.

Our average gas price (2022) was $3.69 mcf.

Net 2P = 71.7 mmboe (excluding 33 mmbo Niger, excluding 55 mmbo Exxon Chad) Possible total 160 mmbo 2P if ICC favouarble re valuation restatement.

Production net 20,240 boepd H1 2023. (12,000 bopd lost from Chad) would be 32,000 boepd + pending possible 50,000 bopd/300 mmbo 2P from Sudan.

How will S.Sudan go and how will ICC rule on Chad compensation - Overall this would have placed us at around 450 mmboe 2P and circa 82,000 boepd (not to mention pipeline interest valautions in Nigeria, Chad and Cameroon) and a $2 billion/yr revenue profile at current oil prices.

Compared to Maurel and Proms current valuation -

211.26m shares in issue Euro 5.50/£4.70 = £992m m/cap

$120m net debt.

2023 figures = $682m revenue

Average oil price = $79.30. Gas Price $3.76 mcf.

Production 28,057 boepd ie (15,354 bopd Gabon, 4,103 bopd Angola, 51.6 mmcfd(8600 boepd) Tanzania.

2P Reserves = 182.2 mmboe (139.7 oil + 42.5 gas)

https://www.maureletprom.fr/en/investisseurs/cours-de-l-action

https://www.maureletprom.fr/en/investisseurs/communiques-de-presse

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The price history of M&P was about 4 Euro/£3.40 when they announced the Assala deal rising to 7 euros /£6 in December 2023 now £4.70

Taking over ASSALA would have meant $730m at completion, rollover of Assala $600m facility gaining 40,700 bopd and 97 mmbo 2P.

M&P had 5,000 bopd kicking in from December with sanctions lifting in Venezuela but now seems possible that these are going to be resanctioned.

Re the bond exchange - Though it says 'up to' re all 3 bonds, I think it's about $10.2m outstanding looking at the recent account notes.

If exchanged then this will add a further $500k/yr interest on top of what they are already paying.

They said they were working on a $25m bond ? what interest rate price will that be with those 3 just under 15% ?

Will they use part of the $25m bond if successfully issued to repay other bonds in the portfolio ?

It's strange but imo not surprising they completely ended the three seperate US transactions which i said at the time was extreme folly and nonsensical re diversification over a wider US area and so small.

The 5% royalty interest is another folly and just what is the point of Leopard rather than Zenith ? It's so small and insignificant they can't even say what it's worth or cost or how much actual monthly revenue they'd get. The number of wells in total versus actual producers and the Texas Oil and Gas activity data for Lavaca County imho shows why.

Nilepet on f/book a few hours ago say a meeting was held with the ministry of petroleum and the partners to address the misleading job offers in the 3 joint operating companies through a fake Savannah website. No jobs available at this time and for no one to apply to it.

Interesting that they including Savannah within 24 hours addressed this.

No mention of anything detrimental (or positive) re Savannah in the post. Perhaps all very much up to speed with each other ?

On reflection it could be unlikely that SAVE would have needed to advertise for staff as these are in place at the JVs between ONGC, CNPC, Petronas unless some decided to leave or move on.

That seems to be the case from the old AI article back on 18-1-22

' Vitol aims for grand slam with Savannah

The success of the two operations in Chad, which are still subject to the approval of the oil and finance ministries, is however only one step in an even more ambitious plan by the Savannah-Vitol duo. Savannah is also looking with great interest at Petronas shares for sale in South Sudan. The British junior informed Petronas of this during the negotiations in Chad. The assets represent some 75,000 bpd for Petronas, with reserves of 300m barrels.

Vitol could also help Savannah financially in exchange for marketing South Sudanese crude.

That would be made easier by the fact that most of Petronas's assets in South Sudan are managed by joint ventures with China's CNPC, which are staffed locally and thus would require the partners to supply little labour. '

The date of the article imo could infer a start date of the transaction as 1/1/22 and now a full 25 months past whch at $30m/month imo could have knocked $750m off the settlement price by now and perhaps some of the balance attached to a greater oil price and/or production milestones.

Great find and thank you

The full range of jobs are at all three joint operating companies. GPOC, DPOC and SPOC so looking really interesting with barely 2 weeks to go to issue an adm document.

Resounding vote against.

There was considerable cash at RBD, payment from Shell etc that could be used on other assets as well as that spent currently on ongoing sharebuy backs.

From the 13/12/23

6. The Board is concerned that there is a potential conflict of interest with respect to the proposed CEO, Andrea Cattaneo (who is the current CEO & President of Zenith Energy) and another Proposed Director, José Ramón López-Portillo Romano (the current Chairman of Zenith Energy). Zenith Energy is listed on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange and is a competitor of Reabold.

"The Board believes the motives of the Requisitioning Shareholders cannot be trusted and that the timing of the Requisition Letter is not coincidental; it is in fact opportunistic. The first requisition coincided with the first tranche payment due from Shell for the sale of Corallian. This second requisition coincides with the subsequent £5.2 million received from Shell on 5 December 2023 and £4.4 million expected in the coming months. The timing is such that the Proposed Directors would be in control of a well-funded company should the Resolutions be duly passed, and the Board strongly believes that the Requisitioning Shareholders and Proposed Directors are using this requisitioned general meeting as a way of attempting to take control of your Company, your cash and your assets.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/RBD/publication-of-circular-2acbj16o5vrfe6c.html