Member Info for ZENGAS

Moved into our 16th month now for suspension and i do wonder how long it can go on. While the company surely knows what the delays are, shareholders are in the dark and limbo.

I wonder if there is another acquisition being worked up but surely this would have been newsworthy and announced by now (the 'at least 1 other hydrocarbon asset by end 2023').

While not suspended, Seplat is till trying to get its Nigerian acquisition over the line from Exxon which was announced 25 months ago despite them being in the country over 10 years.

Thanks and appreciated RR.

Paul1

Zenith have agreed to ship the rig, but it would be madness to do so without (as they say) "the reciept of all necessary regulatory approvals in the republic of Kazakhstan" for the approval of the acquisition.

60 days to complete legal and technical dd (from approx 20th Dec 2023) but there's actually no timeline when the Kazakhs will grant approval.

'today' date - should read 11/3/24

Niger/Sinopec -

What now for Sinopecs hopes to enter Niger given the apparent decsion to award them to their state oil company. This is adjacent to both Save and CNPC blocks.

5/6/23

'China's state-run oil major Sinopec has set it sights on the western African country, where it is poised to become the second largest Chinese firm operating there behind China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), an old hand in Niger.

Africa Intelligence understands that Sinopec wants to take over three areas in the region of Agadem which were handed back to the Nigerien authorities by CNPC. These areas, known as R5, R6 and R7, contain proven reserves.... '

Today 11/3/23

'General Tchiani's government intends to develop the blocks where discoveries have already been made by the Chinese oil giant. The awarding of the Bilma block to SONIDEP presents Niger's state-owned company with a huge challenge....'

From a former South Sudan oil minister who puts Sudans losses at approx $192m/month if the oil is not kept running.

' As a former Minister of Petroleum, let me attempt to shade light on the benefits for Sudan from the oil of South Sudan:

A. The production of DPOC, GPOC, and SPOC used to be 210,000 barrels per a day (2016 to 2019) but it has now decreased to 170, 000 barrels per day as per the latest statistics by the Ministry of Petroleum.

With the $25 (fees) per barrel going to Sudan multiplify by 170,000 barrels per day and a month. Sudan is getting roughly about $127 million USD a month.

B. The 28,000 barrels a day being refined at Khartoum Refinery at Al-jaili, and with it came along, petroleum products are being consumed and used by Sudan. South Sudan gets the normal price of their crude oil barrels of 840,000 a month, which is roughly about 65 million USD a month.

C. The Central Processing Facility at Al-Jabalain and Heglig processing facility

The South Sudan Oil in DPOC and GPOC is being operated by Sudanese, and they are making a living there

D. The marine terminal at Port Sudan where Oil is being shipped to the international markets the workers there (truck drivers, storage facilities, chemicals being brought via Port Sudan, and many logistical operations) are being handled by Sudanese and they are making a living there.

This really needs only mathematics to know the profits of Sudan. With the listed profits above the two Leaders Gen. Burhan and Gen. Hemetti should protect the pipelines and the facilities at all costs.

Yes, South Sudan is benefiting a lot from the oil. The budget of South Sudan is being run and financed by oil. So the biggest loser is South Sudan, and that is the reason for my appeal to our brothers in Sudan.

This oil is our “Food Union” where all of us (South Sudanese and Sudanese) are benefiting.

This “Food Union” shutdown can be a loss not only to South Sudan and Sudan but also our International Oil Partners like CNPC of China, PETEONAS of Malaysia, and ONGC of India.

I know some South Sudanese will ask me why you never built an alternative pipeline as South Sudan? The answer is our pipeline will also either go through Kenya or Ethiopia and Djibouti. We will also have to manage relations there. '

https://blnews.net/2024/01/threats-of-shutting-down-south-sudan-oil-by-sudan/

That's been discussed since 27th Feb here

"F/book 1 hour ago reporting on an interview with the minister of information saying the 23-24 budget will not be met as oil production reduced, gelling in 2 pipeline stations and difficulty getting oil out from port sudan due to the attacks on shipping in the red sea."

and in the same post

' this article on the challenges for S.Sudan via the red sea/houthi attcks on shipping.

https://bnnbreaking.com/world/yemen/south-sudan-oil-exports-hit-by-yemeni-houthi-attacks-amid-sudan-conflict '

hence the discussion on 1/3/24 and 1/5/23 re ring fenced financing and risk

As for what's AK doing - I'm sure that has been considered and it's been more than a month since these issues initially started.

"Can any deal be structured in a way that Save can continue say if oil exports were offline for 3-6-12 months at any point ? and it might not happen - totally unknown but i'm sure that risk has been considered. "

The alternative Tier is no research or analysis and nobody discusses or shares anything.

Then the next thing is where is everybody ?

With Great Wall drilling having a base and rigs i'd say this is the best option in the immediate term.

We'd need a crew and how experienced might they be plus spares etc and pipe where that's probably already carried and with GWs success/experience it might be better to rely on them on a per well basis.

In 2021 completion and production testing of Amdigh, Eridal, Bushiya and Kunama was costed at $7.7m.

EPF $4.3m.

Other Capex for flowlines between the 4 fields, the export station and civil works $5.4m.

Total $17.4m.

We are supposed to be within 30km of the export pipeline though no cost for this connection given.

However in the costings Save were going to build a pipeline from Amdigh to Gounmeri at a cost of $16.9m (bringing the overall total up to $34.3m).

In another slide (Fig 6:3) this was shown as 90 km from Amdigh to Gounmeri.

Also the flow lines were approx 25km between the fields tying to Amdigh ie 7 km Kunama to Eridal. Another 7 km onward flowline Eridal to Amdigh and an 11 km flowline from Bushiya straight to Amdigh.

The 90km $16.9m pipeline from Amdigh to Gounmeri shows that you could reasonably connect more distant satellite fields of 50-100+ mmmbls (if discovered) at low cost imo.

With Sinopec after 4 adjacent Agadem blocks, surely it could be an attractive deal to do something with us. Perhaps a swap on their 30+ million boe 2C gas at Stubb Creek and a bit more in exchange for onward 50% cost of drilling etc. Stubb Creek would convert to 2P once we had a sanctioned development plan as in Niger.

' Obviously figured out something and came to the wrong conclusion, "again". '

Yes, just as i did Tilapia.

Lack of oil sales long before it was reported Tunisia was in trouble.

Benin.

Yemen.

Called the 3 US acquisitions absolute crazy at the time for spreading the company across 2 states - since cancelled.

Consolidation.

Dilution.

Yes very wrong.

Why would such a long established international Oil Co that has operated in, and done deals (sorry MOUs) in numerous countries need to establish itself "as part of the oil trading community with a foot in the door so to speak".

Why the need to whack out $2000 short of $400,000 to acquire a company on the pink sheets to "acquire production and development opportunities" on 29/8/23 and now tell us on 18/1/24 that their focus is to pick up royalty interests.

If you haven't realised what that leaves the company at the mercy off, then you haven't thought it through.

If the royalty interest was of any significance, they'd have stated what it cost and what the 5% royalty (revenue) was on x number of bls - but No !

Also just reverting back to Niger,

Saves Chinese partner in Stubb Creek were negotiating for R5, 6 & 7 in Agadem last May. Surely if anyone is negotiating for those blocks there could surely be some partner interest for our block previously known as R1, 2, 3 & 4.

Trust - I can't see Gran Tierra or any publically listed company getting involved in a disputed asset until the case is resolved.

The Petronas Doba fields and pipeline share in Chad is a different matter.

Nothing on GTEs website at all but they are still looking for assets and i think SHT have inadvertently put those discussions up on facebook.

This from AI just under 2 years ago ( i didn't renew a subscription at their exorbitant prices) 18 months ago.

' New kid on the African blocks

In addition to Tullow Oil, another Canadian firm will potentially join the Elumelu venture to take over SPDC: Gran Tierra. This company produces around 30,000 b/d in Colombia and Ecuador but has never been in business in Africa. However, the elections in Colombia at the end of May 2022 have raised concerns that the oil sector could be put at risk if the radical left-wing candidate Gustavo Petro is elected. Petro, a senator and former mayor of Bogotá, has hammered home the point that he would invest massively in renewable energy and block any new hydrocarbon exploration in the country. Gran Tierra is thus counting on Nigeria to flourish in the event of a change of policy in Colombia.

Although Gran Tierra does not yet have a stake in Africa, its chairman and CEO Gary S. Guidry knows the continent well, as he is also a director of Africa Oil (which bought Petrobras in Nigeria and is engaged in exploration in Namibia, South Africa and Kenya). Guidry was also CEO of Caracal Energy between 2011 and 2014, which operates blocks in southern Chad that were sold to Glencore. The trader himself has just concluded the sale of his assets to Perenco in 2021 (AI, 19/01/22).'

Seriously, forget about the USA.

Buying royalty interests isn't going to make any serious money for investors or the company. PIs would be far better off putting their money in an oil and gas royalty fund.

Begs the question why did Zenith buy CYAP at all and not just buy the royalty interests directly. Strange they pulled out of the much hyped three number other US acquisitions just 8 days after AC and Co lost the Reabold vote and now resorting to royalties.

They haven't even given any detail on the first royalty interest on either cost or revenue generation from almost 2 months ago which in all honesty is quite incredible towards investors.

It would be interesting to see the full progamme and speakers and if Save are on it.

No sign of too many sponsors yet either and again if Save will be one (they were lasyt year).

About 15-16 weeks away with tickets on sale for the SSOP 2024.

There's a news link to tiddler Wildcat Petroleum a few weeks ago getting clearance to take part for oil/gas assets but still nothing on Save after all this time.

Trust

"It's clear to see nationalising the asset and taking over petronas stake without a plan will only lead to lack of investment and they simply don't have the technical expertise to increase production."

Go to SHTs f/b page and you will see they had meetings with Gran Tierra (GTE) yesterday in Chad.

Just to clarify, those figures are the unrisked estimates.

CNPC are in Chad so i doubt there's been any real issue for them given they had a fairly large supply base and they own Great Wall drilling with another base already in Niger so i would presume they would have been well stocked after Covid restrictions.

Many of Saves exploration prospects are clustered close to the existing hub of 4 fields.

Three of the existing fields have deeper targets of a net 24 - 71 mmbo potential over and above the existing 109 mmbo 3C in the discoveries - all medium risk.

Out of 8 further prospects,

2 have low risk net of 73 - 209 mmbo.

3 have medium risk of 139 - 409 mmbo

A further 3 have a high risk net of 148 - 470 mmbo.

Overall theres in excess of 440 - 1150 mmbls net to be targeted in the next 11 drills, 3 of which are on existing fields over and above the existing 33 mmbo 2C.

RR Kosmos are paying down some of their commercial debt facility but at the end of the day these $300m convertible notes just replace that with the same level of indebteness to 2030.

66,000 boepd production Q4 2023 representing 12% growth over previous year.

" 2P reserves as of year-end 2023 are approximately 520 million boe"

Revenue $507m Q4 2023 and $1.72 billion for f/yr 23.

Net debt end 2023 = $2.39b.

Off their more than £6 high to £4.50 to day with a m/cap of £2.12 billion (471.5m shares).

=============================================

Come on Save - One and for all, no excuse in Niger with ample opportinity to bag more than 500 mmbo reserves from the very low risk Sokor Alternances and an operational export pipeline expanding to more tham 300k bopd with p/stations as well as a refinery. CNPC has bagged over 1 billion bl reserves from the Sokor Alternaces with an 80% success rate.

Sokor Alternances Formation: This has been the principal focus of exploration in the ARB to date; all of the Savannah discoveries are from within this sequence, as are a high proportion of the discoveries made by CNPC (p 143 ad doc 2021). Get that pressure communication/compartment sections in Amdigh evaluated soon which could determine a significant 2P reserves upgrade from the 3C level.

Current net 2C from Amdigh, Bushiya, Erida and Kunama 33.3 mmbo. 3C = 109 .1 mmbo P147 adm doc 2021).

(Figure 1-2) with a total Unrisked Best Estimate of c. 6.7 bn bbls Oil Initially In-Place. In addition to the prospect and lead inventory within proven plays, Savannah has also identified several new, potentially significant exploration plays which offer genuine high risk, high reward upside. P392.

I was hoping that the new republican order by the president at the start of February to the Petroleum ministry was maybe somehow a catalyst in seeing some news at any time.

Particularly given the short 2 month extensions this past two times.

I wonder what’s going on at the top level.

Kiir reported as fuming that the Petroleum minister didn’t turn up for the event.