Member Info for ZENGAS

Sure aren’t there Russian troops in Mali as well for much longer and where it was reported last week on here about us doing something in renewables there.

Paul because you still can’t grasp what I’ve said and twisting it to suit the situation you find yourself in.

Anyway enough, I’ll leave you to look back while I and some of the others look forward to the future with the 1st production deal bagged, Japex funding deal, largest undrilled target off Sarawak consolidated all in the past 6-9 months with upcoming carried drilling Q3, wider Asian region team and deal sourcing in both jurisdictions.

Sorry Paul, contrary to what you try to put in peoples mouths, No.

You like to think you what you write is correct without checking facts and it's why i don't give you any credit in knowing what your talking about.

As someone who is 'new here and it shows' as you put it, let me remind you that without any fact checking on 1st Dec you stated our second biggest holder was out when in fact it was a transfer within the same group that i pointed out.

Well fyi Paul i've followed LBE since day 1 regardless of whatever being so called 'new here' to you somehow means. Maybe i just like the raft of new assets and Japex deal more so than you can see from your experience to date. An absolute shame that other investors such as myself come aboard and find this an attractive proposition which after all is needed given you're so far down from 100p to 16p.

Finally you now say 'you don't know the specifics of them' (deals to be done). Exactly you don't know other than your emotional reaction to try and explain it.

Well if you know how SVAL grew, you'd know it has no relevance to LBE in bringing it up as some sort of comparrison in the first place as it is a private equity created company by HiTech and should realise how the private equity influence on deal competition works and how others can be pushed down the food chain. Of course there are deals to be done but you'd have to bear in mind that for some sizeable deals you'd need to win through to preferred bidder status and why imo we've only had the small acquisition to date but hopefully 1,000 boepd to be achieved in the next 8 weeks.

It's why now they can say that the Japex $100m financing can give them the firepower they need along with potentially doubling that amount on RBL to get bigger and better deals - isn't that the point and why some were asking why were we bothering with small 300 boed deals (not so bad now as it approaches 1k boepd) but now also producer status.

If you still don't understand or seen the competition of PE re deals in Norway then there's a clue about S.E Asia where they say 'Private Equity largely absent' and 'Key competition from smaller and/or domestic entities'.

Paul, no disrespect but you don’t have a clue what you are talking about re Sval, deals or private equity.

I asked you for evidence of your claims on deals to be done for lbe, instead it’s met with a nonsense reply.

Don’t you understand how Sval was turned into ‘a billion dollar company ‘. I doubt it .

How can you remotely compare Sval Energi to LBE in that time period and to date since it is a non listed private equity backed company.

It was fully funded by Hi-Tec Vision involved in takeovers and acquisitions to reach material size/self sufficiency that HiTech is now selling.

LONDON, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Private equity firm HitecVision plans to sell its Norwegian oil and gas producer business Sval Energi in a deal valued at up to $1 billion including debt, four sources said.

HitecVision established Sval in 2019 and the company has since grown through a series of acquisitions, including holdings from Equinor EQNR.OL and Suncor SU.TO.

Sval produces around 70,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from stakes in 15 Norwegian fields, and has four development projects, according to its website.

The sale is expected to raise several hundred million dollars which, together with its debt of around $700 million, values Sval at up to $1 billion, according to two sources familiar with the sale process. Sval and HitecVision did not respond to requests for comment.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/private-equity-backed-norwegian-oil-producer-sval-energi-up-for-sale-source

You say there were deals to be done ? so name which ones ? and where ?.

Management weren't up to it ? - On what basis ? Competing with PE maybe ?

You say the market has zero confidence. I bet to differ. If so Japex and it's major shareholder ie the Japanese Govt, would not have done a deal with LBE barely 10 months ago. Incidentally this has actually the kind of step change financing that Hi-tec provided.

As a listed company we are at the sentiment and whims of PIs more so than the rest of the core investors who won't see the bigger picture especially now as to what is in place. The low free float exacerbates both the share price movement on both buys/sells when it could move 10% either way as in recent weeks on little volume.

https://hitecvision.com/investment/sval-energi/

Sval Energi was established in 2019 with the aim of building an energy company with a broad asset base. Currently, Sval holds interests in Gassled, the world’s largest offshore gas transmission system, and in the Polarled pipeline; the company participates in the exploration and development of oil & gas fields; and owns a wind park development in Finland. As a new generation energy company, Sval sees the need to reduce the industry’s carbon footprint, the world’s need for clean energy and also recognizes the profitable business opportunities that arise in the ongoing energy transition.

Case responsible John Knight

Paul yes, but like it or not in the absence of deals (13/3/20) this ended up an exploration play at the time despite its full cycle strategy.

13/3/20 - ie 1 year after listing -

"Longboat will focus on 'near field' exploration with access to infrastructure and de-risking through nearby discoveries".

From admission to this statement and into April 2021 the share price was in the 100p range so on this strategy if it wasn't what anyone had planned for there was ample time to change ones own investment strategy/risk.

What proof do you have with a comment that' they bottled it' on assets - What potential good deals were on the table and access to cash for financing ? None of us KNOW what competition was faced in or around any deals and if they were ultimately good or not in the long or short term re pricing and if the goal posats were moved mid deal.

The farm in process (75p) to the exploration drilling was 1 June 21 - 2 years after the company was set up.

We had 6 discoveries out of the initial exploration wells some of which have opened major plays. While some on the back burner they may yet be tied in re Satellite developments in the future. Kveikje one of the biggest discoveries in that period - so to me it demonstrates that they get in on the right prospects with partners for discoveries and i expect more farm ins of that type.

It was in Feb 2023 that it then broadened its remit and likely in talks long before this with potential partners on a JV.

In the last 12 months it has put in place the

1) Japex deal $100m and possibly doubling with RBL.

2) Acquired the initial production assets now expected at circa 1,000 boepd v 300 at the SPA with a 600 boepd guidance post drill by the operator.

3) The largest undrilled giant structure Malaysia/Sarawak with 1.5 billion boe recoverable potential and a range of very large follow on structures in the block that is now in a world hot spot surrounded by majors like Shell, Total, Connoco etc.

That all didn't fall into their lap. Time, negotiation and effort.

Likewise why i expect the next deals will build the company much bigger in both jurisdictions.

I invested at the outset, but you have to bear in mind it was an out and out exploration play back then (as for that matter UPL is now).

For all that, LBE have still made a number of discoveries from that early strategy which the partners are saying you mightn't have heard much about them but they are of importance and will hear of them as development plans for them grow.

I also bought in on the new strategy.

The ridiculous comments about everything they've touched has gone bad beggars belief.

The Japex JV $100m financing deal with the possibility of doubling that via debt rbl financing.

The Initial acquisition of 300 boepd which we were waiting on reaching 600 boepd. The delay was outside our control when we are minority partners. I don't hear many picking up on the expectation that it should now reach circa 1,000 boepd which would be 66% upside to our initial conditioning. The Operator has said there is potential to increase the RF = reserves increase but i'm sure this is all lost amongst the moaning and those who don't see what has been put together.

They've landed one of the biggest undrilled blocks (52.5%/2A) with a whopping 50% 3D coverage that would cost $millions with multiple large prospects. Just one having 1.5 billion boe recoverable estimate with the rest potentailly adding up to a multiple of that imo. There's about $500m - $1b of possible value (ie c $3/boe on 150 - 300 mmboe on a remaining 10-20% post farm out for Kertang alone if that size discovery is found, with other structures as a future follow on.

Upland languished at .2 then .4 of a penny for 5 years and now with it's Sarawak block, half the size of ours, still not awarded but expected, no 3D, no recoverable estimates and no known net perecentage share to them - yet now at 4.3p today and 4.7p recently on 1.211 b shares = £53-£57m m/cap and about another 150m cheap warrants still to dilute, little cash and crucially not enjoying any income whatsoever.

As for us picking up a a so called small interest. Aet picked up a similar sized producing interest from Ina of barely 150 boepd but it's what you do with them. They languished at under 10p or £22m m/cap and have picked up 3 debt funded interests under a new strategy that took time to execute and are not far of £100m m/cap at 47p today.

At current prices and short ramp up timescale there should be $25m - $28m JV revenue on that 1,000 boepd.

If they can add the right deal on the financing available they could be a 10,000+ boepd producer in Norway. That has to be passed by Japex too what they want to approve not just LBEs management.

A mention that they could land some Sarawak fallow offshore shallow water existing discoveries for development at no cost which imo could add considerable 2C and reclassified to 2P on a dev plan so that's a major one to watch as that team/region has to justify it's formation and growth over an above just block 2A - which will be a second growth arm.

Production doubled to 600 boepd albeit a few months behind schedule affecting revenues and a cost overrun in the accounting period. 2 wells still to come on stream so potentially 750 boepd to come from this one transaction.

The Kveikje cluster development planned by the operator. Move that to 2P on sanction and that project alone is worth a substantial part or all of the current m/cap.

there's a lot of things we don't know and perhaps a lot of things save can't say other than the timeline indicated.

there's been little news media reach into the ministry of s.sudan by the likes of african intelligence unlike some other countries in africa where they more frequently report on so info is sp****.

my thoughts are if the deal isn't still on, then why is save still waiting for it to succeed some 16 months later.

(seplat are still expecting their exxon nigerian deal to close which was announced almost 26 months ago).

s.sudan could be negotiating any tax due such as cgt or exit fee from petronas - who knows and could be a reason for no approval as yet ? if so it's not in the gift of save to comment on or divulge as i would see it.

as for needing the fy audited results and the finalisation audit of the pcnl 2023 fy -

at the time of the spa on 12/12/22 - pcnl had an unaudited report of total assets of $994m and $492m net up to 30/6/22.

the audited accounts seem to have been at least completed up until the end of 2021 at the date of the spa with an average post tax profit for 2019/20/21 of $130.6m.

it was saves intention to publish an adm doc in h1 2023 so if this was up to end june, save would have had their annual 22 accounts released for inclusion in the adm doc and likewise pcnls full yr 2022 in the h1 adm doc expectation imo in that timeline.

with it having run into q2 2023 it seems (as they have indicated) the f/yr 22 for save and pcnl are now required for the adm doc ?

as it stands from the latest update and aim extension to 17th may -

1. govt approval expected/sought first - "following receipt of this approval, savannah would then progress to finalise an aim admission document"

2. saves results are usually done/released in june and it's when these are done along with pcnls own accounts they would go into the adm doc followed by the shareholder approval meeting - which they indicate will be late q2 early q3.

3. late q2 is june normally for our f/yr results.

4. early q3 is july which is usually the egm/agm a month after results release.

while we still wait govt approval - extension is to 17/5 some 5 and a half weeks.

ann results regardless end june max = 7-11 weeks even if govt approval is earlier - doesn't bring the adm doc closer as i see it.

Even if we got govt approval this Monday, I can’t see the adm doc any sooner. Requires our full year results completed which nearly every year is June completion/release. They’ve also got to incorporate the PCNL results for 2023.

Following the adm doc, it’s another month approx for shareholder approval.

I seen a post here this morning by Flash and because he's a negative stance, the post was removed.

It's so childish and ridiculous that posts should be removed. Removing them hasn't stopped the share price falling to where it is whether the posts stayed up 1 hour or 4. Price has dropped over 95% under ACs tenure anyway.

I see MEN leaving the AIM market this am and has fallen 75% on the day and C4X yesterday on AIM on voluntary delistings where the s/p isn't being reflected.

I posted sometime back on the main market listing, rules and latest recommendations, sponsor etc to bring it more in line with AIM which has better oversight having a nomad. I wonder if the m/cap rules could be problematic and if it's cheaper to be private in some company cases as the 2 examples above ?

Thanks adam

Do you know if any other JTS bids were submitted or are being made from any other entities for this particular block ?

Did Vidaconn, Brooke dissappear of the radar/elsewhere 2018/19 to do their own prospective deals ?

Do you know where the '$30,000,000 historically spent on the onshore block for 2D data analysis' came from and entailed - seems extraordinarily high cost for analysing just 456 km lines of 2D on a 6,685 km2 block. Thats only a fraction of the block.

An offshore Sarawak block of 12,000 Km2 had 6500 Km" 3D shot and 3900 km 3D was over 3 distinct prospects and substantial geochemistry and seep analysis but nowhere near that cost to my knowledge.

Again thanks for the pointers again adam/jackastory - agree at £30m odd it's not forward pricing in too much for the opportunity and hopefully on PSC award things will become more clearer on volumetrics, RF, percentage share, and finally a decent detailed presentation.

Had a further look at this since I was cautious here ever since the bid talk and to me jumping the gun hype at looking at rigs in Q4 last year that i didn't expect imminent drilling activity and now the share price back at 2.95p and a bid talk high pushing it to 6p. To me a cloud over the whole company judgement that they took so long on it about a potential 14p bid but that's been and done.

On the 10p posts pre drill (£150m potential m/cap considering the cheap warrants/options in play) - don't disagree on that maybe, but a couple of things

This is an out and out exploration play with nothing re reserves/production to back up the current m/cap of £36m at 2.95p should even the first well be drilled out of structure/closure etc/ ie no 3D.

They say they are well financed for work activities but - How much if any will they need on bidding for the PSC ?

No funds that i can see for drilling so they'll need a farmout - they've since indicated in an RNS 22/1/24 which wasn't out there before officially that i could see. Is that happening conditionally ahead of the PSC award if won and on farmout how long before that partner is ready to go, requirements/stipulations re risk/seismic etc).

Also will they shoot any 3D seismic - they have absolutely none. Will a farmout partner want this first or take a chance on the very limited 2D lines they have commiting drilling funds on limited seismic - thus pushing drilling activity back ?

Also the warrants/options in play have this potentially reaching 1.5 billion shares in issue and i don't think that's enough to run the company (3D/Drilling) without that farmout.

It's fine when the PSC is awarded but - then need an oil in place estimate when it comes and an independent CPR (not the company estimate) but a RECOVERABLE estimate is needed more so to go on and the biggest point of all is - how much left relative post farm out and then net to UPL considering the JV status. These 10p posts are based on not knowing what the ultimate share will be post farmout and after the JV split.

On the project schedule there's nothing on actual drilling by the end of Q2/end June other than Partner & Strategic engagement on PSC til end Q2 - what's that actually mean ??? Acquire 3d next ? Drill without it ???

Maybe a clue that the seismic matter could hold this back as item 3 objectives is -

"Design new seismic acquisition plan and/or other feasible exploration tools for execution in future De-risking activities".

These are questions the board haven' t answered in any presentations and it could all dither on til Q3 Q4 or early 2025 before spud ?.

The monthly progress report presentation is poor on facts that actually matter.

From the adm doc - P34 - SK334 " This block is approximately 6,685 sq km and is located in the northern region of onshore Sarawak, Malaysia. It is a virgin block from an exploration standpoint as no wells have been drilled in the area to date, and only 456 km of modern 2D seismic.

I know some posters were saying 15p on return if no S.Sudan, but i never seen any workings to say why it's worth that.

Therefore without sticking a finger in the air to get 15p (why not 18 - 13 - 21 compared to a nice round 15p) it's as much for my own benefit not to make a reactionary decision just because others might and try and understand the sum of the parts valuation.

Whatever happens and at some point we get back to being unsuspended, perhaps the directors might show some further support by buying and demondtrating confidence at whatever price.

Last buy was from the new Chairman with 6,095,726 shares at 26.25p for £1.6m.

On a net valuation basis post the latest Nigerian CPR

1413m shares and £1=$1.275

Base case valuation at just over $60/b oil price.

Uquo & Stubb Creek 2P & 2C = $439.4m. Accugas = $636.3m. Total = $1075.7m = 59.7p share.

At end of June 2023 net debt = $443.4m.

If the net debt hasn't reduced and is still the same as of mid year 2023 - then with roughly $59.5m Stubb Creek acquisition costs to add to that ( less almost 7 months reduction for the effective transaction date for 75% of the cost) = approx $55m in total.

Net debt perhaps $498m = minus 27.6p share.

Net value (after debt) for Nigeria around 32p.

In Niger, Reclassifying the 33 mmbo 2C to 2P at $4/b = $132m or 7.3p share.

In the absence of S.Sudan i get an overall value of 67p less 27.6p in debt = just under 40p/share compared to 26p now.

*** Above is my baseline for not making any reactionary decisions re price swings come what may re S.Sudan ***.

Obviously the faster the net debt reduces, this should translate to an increase the share price.

I would like to think that with the S/Creek oil acquisition, it will help to reduce net debt faster, dollar liquidity etc and also from some more gas sales after compression completion etc.

Given the resource upside in Uquo and S.Creek, i'd expect the next few years production to be more than replaced there.

Also the 2C Gas at Stubb Creek when reclassified to 2P should also help increase the valuation beyond the current core value.

With Chad playing out in the background, one other way of significantly or eliminating the net debt is the award (if any) of substantial damages for the loss of the Chad oil fields and pipeline and also the Cameroon pipeline interest in a seperate issue that is not included here - nor have i included the Cameroon valuation.

In the absence of any further acquisitions and as we stand we have the 2 billion bl + exploration potential in Niger - but getting more value there depends on how soon we start to return to proving up barrels and adding to the share price.

The unknown is S.Sudan. If it completes at a $1,250m cost and if this is reduced by now down to a net $400m debt at completion to pay - it might leave up to $850m core value or a net 47p/share provided no dilution etc and if the oil is not shut-in for any length of time.

Roughly equates to 87p net = around RockyRs revaluation estimate with 50p on top for $900m net debt = 137p when net debt eliminated/net cash positive + upside from getting a move on in Niger exploration ?

Yes they’re reporting news that was posted here a month ago.

CPR Figures

All the discovered fields both in Nigeria and Niger offer significant 3C upside (Recovery factor, pressure communication etc ..) as well as substantial exploration potential.

Uquo/Stubb Creek 2P/2C Net = 164 mmboe.

Niger 4 fields 2C Net = 33 mmboe.

Uquo/Stubb Creek additional potential 3C Net = 17.5 mmboe.

Niger 4 existing fields additional potential 3C Net = 75.8 mmbo.

Total 2P/2C Net = 197 mmboe.

Potential Net 3C = 93 mmboe .

Further recoverable exploration potential of Net 93 - 185 mmboe. (on Uquo/Stubb Creek licences mid-high case Net 69 - 114 mmboe + deeper potential in the 4 Niger fields mid-high case Net 24.3 - 71.3 mmboe.)

Good to see the Stubb Creek deal completed with Sinopec though i wasn't expecting the oil element which is a bonus.

My thoughts this past few weeks were on Save possibly doing something in tandem in Niger with Sinopec given they were after 4 neighbouring blocks to us but which the Niger government is rumoured to now want to develop themselves.

That's a lot of gas and oil before any further acquisitions.

Also a welcome dollar income boost from new additional and expected to double oil production.

Sinopecs Sipec made $27.8m after tax profit in 2022 so should overall improve our dollar income/less reliability on the naira and with overall production expected to double should really improve things.

This perhaps looks like the 'at least one further acquisition' which was expected by the end of 2023.

This has moved our net 2P/2C up to over 180 mmboe with Agadem net (220+ mmboe gross).

It' shows how quickly things can take a step change.

If they can push on this year in Niger and if the segments in Amdigh are as hoped for in pressure communication (which were not included in the first time around in the cpr), it could add a sizeable uplift in 2C. Approx 100 mmbo additional to play for in 3 existing fields.

Of course if S.Sudan could only complete and with a rumoured 300 mmbls reserves (A.Intel) would put us in a different 2P/2C and production league.

Yes another 8 to 9 boe gas per day from October will go down a treat if successful. Partners missing out by not participating.