Member Info for ZENGAS

003/PT/PM/MH/2024

Haven't translated it because its via facebook but released today saying Save losing another battle as the 'Paris CCI arbitration court refuses to freeze and seize Cotco funds giving Chad and COTCo right'. Seems to go back to 8th May when this was heard.

I wonder will or can Save comment on the status of this dispute and update shareholders without us having to hear about it from the other side in the dispute.

Mubadala off Indonesia excited about making a giant and game changing 2TCF gas in place discovery in water depth deeper than Longboats Block 2A which is in water depth ranging from 100 - 1400m with the proposed Kertang well location at 1,000m.

Kertang 9 TCF mid case recoverable estimate.

Multiple follow on structures.

Will be interesting once we gain a farm out from our current 52.5% to accompany us with Petronas and Petros

Updated 13 May 2024, 11:01

United Arab Emirates operator Mubadala Energy confirmed it has made a giant gas discovery with potential for more than 2 trillion cubic feet of gas-in-place with its Tangkulo-1 ultra-deepwater exploration well on the South Andaman gross split production sharing contract offshore Indonesia.

Tangkulo-1 was drilled to a depth of 3400 metres from a water depth of 1200 metres, just a few months after Mubadala made a major discovery with its Layaran-1 well, also on the South Andaman PSC. The operator earlier said that Layaran has the potential to host an estimated 6 Tcf-plus of gas although industry sources have suggested the figure could be higher.

"When added to our recent success at Layaran-1, this game-changing discovery promises to transform Indonesia’s and Southeast Asia’s energy landscape and demonstrates that South Andaman is one of the world’s most exciting energy plays," commented Mansoor Mohammed Al Hamed, Mubadala Energy chief executive.

The Tangkulo-1 well encountered an 80-metre gas column in a good quality Oligocene sandstone reservoir that was confirmed through an extensive data gathering campaign that included obtaining a full core of 72 metres, wireline logging, sidewall core, pressure and fluid sampling.

Utilising a new drill stem test (DST) design, the wildcat flowed 47 million cubic feet per day of "excellent quality" gas and 1300 barrels per day of condensate. Mubadala noted that, although testing was constrained by testing facilities, the estimated well capacity is between 80 and 100 MMcfd of gas and more than 2000 bpd of condensate.

Unlocking further potential

In line with company’s gas-biased strategy, Tangkulo-1 is an important pillar in the cluster’s development story, with the discovery unlocking further potential in the southern part of the block and indicating an additional multi-Tcf of prospective gas resources in nearby structures.

On completion of the Tangkulo well, the West Capella is lined up to drill an appraisal well on Layaran.

Mubadala operates the South Andaman PSC with an 80% working interest and its sole partner is UK independent Harbour Energy on 20%.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/game-changing-mubadala-energy-confirms-another-giant-gas-discovery-offshore-indonesia/2-1-1642620

It's potentially doable. One thing you may have potentially missed is the barrel per 2P reserves. Okeas was transacted at an initial cost of $5.36 per 2P bl which would value the upfront cost at about $284m for 53 mm bls P2 and then discounted back to whatever effective date is used (perhaps 1/1/24 or earlier).

I posted this on 1/3/24

Okea bought their 4 interests (not long after LBE )n Statford, Statford Ost, Statford Nord and Sygna for $220m giving 13-15,000 boepd, 41 mmboe 2P, 8mmboe 2C and upside of another 14 mmboe.

Acquisition of 28% WI in PL037 from Equinor, comprising 23.93123% WI in Statfjord Unit, 28% WI in Statfjord Nord, 14% WI in Statfjord Øst Unit and 15.4% WI in Sygna Unit.


Production in 2024 this year estimated to be 16-20,000 boepd (though likely reduced by 10% this year).

Effective date 1 January 2023 

Initial fixed consideration of USD 220 million including tax balances of approximately NOK 300 million.

This was transacted at an initial cost of $5.36 per boe 2P. 

However this would expand to a profit share on bls sold between $75-$96 in 2023, $64 - $85 in 2024 and $53 - $72/b in 2025 where Equinor get 90% of the profit in those ranges after tax and effectively increasing the 2P per barrel cost. 


South Sudan dismisses allegation of shady oil deal with UAE

The alleged agreement, negotiated on the sidelines of the COP28 climate change summit in December, would see the Hamad Bin Khalifa Department of Projects (HBK DOP) lend South Sudan the money in exchange for discounted oil supplies over two decades.

May 3, 2024

UBA – South Sudan has dismissed accusations of an opaque oil-for-cash deal with the UAE, calling them “unfounded” and “an attempt to damage relations between the two countries.”

The alleged agreement, negotiated on the sidelines of the COP28 climate change summit in December, would see the Hamad Bin Khalifa Department of Projects (HBK DOP) lend South Sudan the money in exchange for discounted oil supplies over two decades.

This is according to a copy of the term sheet seen by Sudans Post and an unpublished U.N. report.

Speaking to reporters following a weekly cabinet meeting in Juba on Friday, deputy information and communication minister Jacob Mijok Korok dismissed the reports as “social media allegations” that don’t require comment.

“There is nothing credible about $13 billion or whatever this figure is. It’s circulating on social media,” Korok told reporters after the meeting shared by President Salva Kiir Mayardit.

The term sheet, however, states that the agreement was signed on Dec. 28 by former finance minister Bak Barnaba and HBK DOP chairman Hamad Bin Khalifa Al Nahyan.

It remains unclear if the initial $5.24 billion tranche of the loan has been received.

Bloomberg reported that under the deal, South Sudan would receive $10 less per barrel of oil compared to the international benchmark.

The U.N. document cited by Bloomberg states that 70% of the loan would be directed towards infrastructure projects in South Sudan.

HBK DOP has previously been involved in a halted bid to buy a stake in Beitar Jerusalem Football Club due to concerns over Sheikh Khalifa’s finances.

https://www.sudanspost.com/south-sudan-dismisses-allegation-of-shady-oil-deal-with-uae/

Should be noted that Pres Kiir fired the above finance minister in March.

"President Salva Kiir fired Barnaba Bak Chol in March after a surge in consumer prices, a decline in the local currency’s value, and a shortage of supplies."

https://sudantribune.com/article285051/

Even if we do have approval, we wouldn’t be coming back from suspension on the 17th May (unless the deal is scrapped).

One way of looking at this is we expanded the operations to S.E Asia and a larger team to manage that and take on acquisitions as seen in the recent annual report but they talked of cost cutting and can't argue that they've been quick to make some savings where possible.

2 directors are standing down and won't be replaced in the immediate future.

Brent Cheshire £70k.

Jorunn Saetre £50k.

Nick Ingrassia was on 230k and moves up to CEO replacing Helge Hammer who was on £300k.

The current Chairman of LBE is on 95k.

Helge leaves to become chairman of LBE/Japex - will there be a pay cut to a more modest Chairman salary or still remain on £300k ?

Either way, Helges salary would now be 49% met by the Japex ownership portion of the JV so if he remains on £300k this would be a net saving to us of £147k.

Cost cutting of around £200k at least to perhaps £300k depending on what Helges salary at LBE/Japex is.

Also if Nicks salary is not as large in taking over as the previous CEO it might increase the savings.

RR

It's an interesting one at this moment in time. Maybe in anticipation of S.Sudan or a further acquisition but clearly for Oil & Gas.

It can't be related to the Sipec acquisition announced in March as that is being acquired by - Savannah Energy SC ltd.

" The SIPC SPA will see ****Savannah Energy SC Limited (a wholly owned subsidiary of Savannah)**** acquire a 75% equity interest in SIPEC for cash consideration of US$52 million, payable on completion and subject to customary adjustments for a transaction of this nature from 1 September 2023.. The Jagal SPA will see ****Savannah Energy SC Limited**** acquire a 25% equity interest in SIPEC."

Savannah Energy Oil & Gas Ltd incorporated at Companies house on the 25th April 2024.

Major shareholders on the company website updated yesterday .

Imo ideally you want a major farmout with a committment for 3-4 exploration wells.

At 4p it was a £50m m/cap with barely £3.4m of funds.

If UPL go it alone with the limited funds they have, it becomes a one shot wonder on the outcome of that one well and a long way to fall on a poor result if no back up funds, thus likely heavy future dilution.

A 3-4 well farmout deal would prevent that to some extent unless all wells were failures and investors sit each well out.

Need the CPR, the COS on the well and more meat on the bones re derisking but with the limited funds, a farmout is the only way to go.

Edit - The same questions still stand in my 23rd March post more so as i see they haven't elaborated on the other points i raised then.

On the 23rd March i posted about needing cash but was immediately tackled by Flip Flop saying 'oh here they come' and assured us in print that the board told him a placing was 'lies' and 'we'll silence them' - Strange his posts are all gone. I'd be wary of these telegarm groups trying to control info, re-spouting it here and just trying to remove any relevant questions just beccause it may be deemed negative to those that wont ask serious questions.

Other than the funds,

The same questions still stand in my 23rd March post more so as i see they haven't

"No funds that i can see for drilling so they'll need a farmout - they've since indicated in an RNS 22/1/24 which wasn't out there before officially that i could see. Is that happening conditionally ahead of the PSC award if won and on farmout how long before that partner is ready to go, requirements/stipulations re risk/seismic etc).'

Also will they shoot any 3D seismic - they have absolutely none. Will a farmout partner want this first or take a chance on the very limited 2D lines they have commiting drilling funds on limited seismic - thus pushing drilling activity back ?

Also the warrants/options in play have this potentially reaching 1.5 billion shares in issue and i don't think that's enough to run the company (3D/Drilling) without that farmout.

It's fine when the PSC is awarded but - then need an oil in place estimate when it comes and an independent CPR (not the company estimate) but a RECOVERABLE estimate is needed more so to go on and the biggest point of all is - how much left relative post farm out and then net to UPL considering the JV status.

On the project schedule there's nothing on actual drilling by the end of Q2/end June other than Partner & Strategic engagement on PSC til end Q2 - what's that actually mean ??? Acquire 3d next ? Drill without it ???

Maybe a clue that the seismic matter could hold this back as item 3 objectives is -

"Design new seismic acquisition plan and/or other feasible exploration tools for execution in future De-risking activities".

These are questions the board haven' t answered in any presentations and it could all dither on til Q3 Q4 or early 2025 before spud ?.

The monthly progress report presentation is poor on facts that actually matter. '

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As of today 30/4/24 now potentially 1.6 billion shares fully diluted. It will surely mean a further rise at some point as about $3.7m net from the raise will not cover all.

Latest presentation doesn't go beyond end June and no drill shedule - stuffed with photos but light on significant info that matters - therefore what slot or when will that rig be available for a designated slot. Is it cold or warm stacked ready to move ? Will it sit around earning no money until UPL/Govt decide to give the well go ahead ?

Just to add, it might be too much to expect all good fortune to line up, but with those 3 country assets performing at that indicated level, a positive meaningful compensation award in the next 12 months or so could potentially leave us net debt free.

No operational or financial update at the start of the year for 2024 so looking back to the half year end June 2023 we produced an average 138.5 mmcf/d

Total 6 month revenues were $138.7m invoiced including oil so pro-rata could be about $270-$275m although it was guided as being greater than $235m for all 2023. Also they said the 20/4/23 $44.9m from Cameroon for a 10% pipeline sale was received.

If there is another hit from the exch-rate, it should be tempered by the capex being reduced by $30m ($60m down to $30m).

Net debt at 30/6/23 was $443m (Where are we almost 12 months on?)

Since then - we're paying around $60m for SIPEC with $52m of that to be adjusted down to an effective date of 1/1/23.

8.7 mmbo 2P and 227 Bcf gas ( 46 mmboe total).

Sipec is producing 1400 bopd which at $80/b is about $41m year so we could have $15m knocked off our settlement price in 3 months time.

So perhaps net debt on this new acquisition = $45m by end of August.

If our existing oil/gas revenue is about $270m, this new acquisition at the current production level would take it to about $310m.

Within 12 months of deal completion the combined Stubb Creek oil output is due to rise by another 2,000 bopd which would give us an additional $60m/yr revenue at an $80/b oil price.

So without any additional gas sales revenue, we could be around $370m revenue from Nigeria alone with the additional oil sales and our access to dollars for a dividend.

I'd really be looking to that deal being approved asap which i think would help our overall refinancing of Accugas debt. If nothing else that new income stream would radically improve our net debt position and steer us to a future dividend with no other asset contribution.

Niger 33 mmbo 2C to 2P reserves on sanction.

Attaining 1,000 - 5,000 bopd has to add $29m - $146m revenue at $80/b

Above is a pathway to $500m revenue at little additional cost and reducing the net debt that we have.

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South Sudan

After almost 1.5 years the purchase price has to be greatly reduced.

50,000 bopd at $70 -$75/b oil could be $1250m - $1360m revenue/yr.

If South Sudan debt is also ringfenced, i can definitely see without doubt why this is a major asset to go after regardless of the difficulties next door and the annoyance to some shareholders (i include my self but i see the prize as well despite lack of newsflow).

If it could get back to ramping up it's last few years of oil decline, it could mean 75-100,000 bopd net here.

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Overall we're not in a bad place imho. The Sipec deal is a very good revenue bolt on so they're not sitting still. It also gives us a lot more gas. They just need to get Niger into gear and if we really want reserves growth there we need to pay for exploration or else get a drilling partner in. It could really be unlocked if S.Sudan goes through so maybe why there is little newsflow on Niger.

In exactly 3 months (1/8/24) we will be entering our 11th year as a listed company.

It is pretty galling that after all this time ie 10 years, not a single barrel of oil has flowed in Niger whether for production or under test.

The entire PSC terms were used up and the only saving grace was that they were converted into one before they expired . But already 2 years is almost come and gone under those new terms.

"The Company anticipates that the R1234 PSC will become effective in Q1 2022 and will reset the Company's licence validity to up to 10 years for the exploration phase, comprising an initial term of four years, with the option to extend this term by two further terms of two years each. In addition, one of these three terms can be extended by the Company for a further two years. " (Since stated in the annual report as completed in H1 2022).

Quite simply if they don't get their act together, patience will grow thin not only by investors but the host country under different regime management.

There was countless $millions raised for Niger.

We were told 2.8 billion bls mid case recoverable with the sokor alternances being the low lying fruit as proven by our own 100% success rate and the Chinese at 75%+ creating over 1 billion bls reserves.

The export pipeline is operational.

Quite simply what the eff is the excuse come the results in June and agm July if they haven't got a plan in place to significantly drive this forward.

Either bring a partner in with deep pockets or just keep time wasting where we ultimately don't benefit at all by delays and tracts of the PSC are relinquished under the PSC terms ?.

Seriously, come results/agm there needs to be a credible plan of action. Six months of this year will be gone. We are not a charity no matter how much the company claims societal good. It's just no longer credible or acceptable to be doing nothing of meaningful size. To go back to my opening lines, 10 years is shameful and any further waffling about future intended plans will no longer wash. Management need a collective boot in the hole re this fiasco of a situation not to mention their divergence to wind and solar while the oil assets there go nowhere fast. I intend to voice this directly to them and i urge other shareholders to do the same that this situation in my view is no longer acceptable and can't be dodged come results/agm.

Absolutely agree.

200k bopd is within 2 years

Even 10% capacity via the pipeline is 20,000 bopd. CNPC will still earn a very decent transit fee.

From memory, it was the intention to be exporting 500,000 bopd before the end of the decade .

Great news and to see that the pipeline will in its next phase be doing 200,000 bopd by 2026.

If ever there was an incentive for a farm in with Save or to go it alone, then no excuse and something that they categorically need to clear up by the results date in June.

Although the SAVE website on major shareholders states it was last updated on 31/1/24,

'The following members own legal and beneficial interests representing three per cent. or more of the Company’s issued share capital:'

Lat time i looked there was 9 holders but there now includes one called Ruffer and the first time i've noticed them making it 10.

Ruffer doesn't hold over 3% - it holds 1.57% or 20,586,437 shares

This brings the 10 listed institutions to 61.14% + 4.79% for directors = 65.93%.

20/3/23 OKEA

The Statfjord Area comprises the Statfjord Unit, Statfjord Øst Unit, Statfjord Nord and Sygna Unit.

The Statfjord Unit development covers the Statfjord A, B and C concrete gravity-based platforms. The other fields are subsea developments tied back to the main field platforms.

Statfjord Area is one of the largest fields on the NCS in terms of initial oil in place which was in excess of 6 billion barrels. Statfjord A was put on production in 1979, followed by Statfjord B in 1982 and Statfjord C in 1985.

====================================================

*****

The field is operated by Equinor and the Field Life extension (FLX) unit was established in 2020 with an ambition to deliver 200% increase in remaining reserves, 25% cost reduction and 50% CO2 reduction in the Statfjord Area by 2030.

****

================================================================

https://www.okea.no/investor/investor-news/okea-acquires-28-working-interest-in-pl037-statfjord-area-from-equinor/

Longboat

Statfjord Øst is located seven kilometres to the northeast of the Statfjord field in a maximum water depth of 190 metres and produces oil and gas from two subsea production templates and one water injection template tied-back to the Statfjord C platform.

The Sygna field is located just northeast of the Statfjord Nord field in 300 metres water depth. Sygna produces oil and gas from good quality, Middle Jurassic sandstone in the Brent Group. Originally discovered in 1996, the field began production in 2000 from three production wells tied-back via a subsea template to the Statfjord C facility.

https://longboatenergy.com/operations-norway/

RR.

I posted this on the 8/3 - 2 weeks before the Sinopec deal with Save in Stubb Creek.

‘With Sinopec after 4 adjacent Agadem blocks, surely it could be an attractive deal to do something with us. Perhaps a swap on their 30+ million boe 2C gas at Stubb Creek and a bit more in exchange for onward 50% cost of drilling etc. Stubb Creek would convert to 2P once we had a sanctioned development plan as in Niger.’

Also since then, I posted that the Niger govt was taking the blocks that Sinopec were after in Agadem which were adjacent to our blocks.

My assumption was if they were seriously interested in Agadem with the government taking those blocks, then an obvious choice would be to do a deal with us given we were already partners on Stubb Creek. I was expecting this could come to the fore but as always a wait and see approach.

I don’t disagree Rocky especially as we are approaching the middle of the year already. I’d like to think that they’d bring in a partner maybe. One thing is for certain there also needs a comprehensive update on Niger given that the pipeline is operational and I’m sure now that CNPC will be planning the next phases for 2-300k bopd with pumping stations. They simply have to get moving with this asset asap which would be something on top of the decent uplift from Stubb Creek oil after the recent acquisition there.