Seplat 223 May 2024 13:49
It's now back to 170p 10 years later. If you add in the $575m dividends allowing for the various ex rates over those years say using £1/$1.35 or £425m that's about an extra 72p so has been to date worth/made 242p in total if you were cashing in today.
It's been battered by Force Majeure, Mareva injunctions, internal spats, other court cases, trying to deport the CEO, Eland takeover not going so good at the time, fatalities, low oil prices, Covid, debt financing/repayment re low oil price/oil going below zero, worry over alternative export routes, low gas price, financing gas plant expansion and now the hold up on the Exxon deal which would be very material.
Really considering the above with our steady 20,000+ boepd net gas at an almost 50% premium relative to Seplat, + 1200 bpd Nigeria oil. Basically if we had circa 20,000 bopod additional oil (we have Niger up to 5k and a further 3.5k to come from Nigeria) we too should be in a position to rapidly reduce net debt or on a mixture of debt repayment/dividends as Seplat does - be in a position where we could be paying about $60m dividend (or about 3.4p/share ) though in SAVEs case they want to re-invest into renewables.
On average over the last 10 years $575m paid out in divs = $63.8m year and still having as much net debt as Save ($385m March 31 2024)
Production over the last 10 years was a low of 25,877 boepd to a high of 51,183 boepd with Q1 2024 being 49,258 boepd which is an average of 42,300 boepd/yr.
Even servicing the debt, we should with an additional 20,000 bopd be able to support a similar average dividend of $60m/yr. Certainly imo with re-investment into renewables we should come out with the fabled and pencilled in $20m div.
Let's face it, they are not paying off the $380m Accugas but refinancing it over 10-15 years which would lighten the costs even more/free up cash for re-investment..
We have about 20,000 boepd net gas minimum. 1200 bopd from S Creek.
To approximately model our income to Seplat we need about 20,000 bpd of of additional oil
5k bopd to come through from Niger and a further 3700 bopd from S.Creek. Therefore an acquisition in the region 11-12k bopd could do it to mirror the past performance/dividend output from Seplat which could be worth $60m/yr of dividends or $20m min + funds sent to renewables? .
Unlucky with the hassle over Chad where we would now be there as above imo.
South Sudan still ongoing. It was a circa 50-55,000 bopd net production and with production even reduced by the rumoured 70% could still see 15k bopd still producing before pipeline repairs completed (if the deal goes through).