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Calender year of bookings - as in to show whre their rigs are located/moving to next/sequence of jobs and if someone takes up the extension period, then you usually see an RNS saying the rig is still tied down with the current user and when expected for release.

Ash

Sincerely good luck here and better fortune ahead hopefully for you.

You got a thinned out board and a lot of the cost savings to boot.

It's all about trying to really research the opportunities inside out. These have absolutley no relation to what's gone before in Norway where we partnered there with major names who had the same mixed fortunes as us on those outcomes. Our issue was the delay in bringing those further 2 Norwegian wells on with increased costs, while experiencing the shortfall in income, servicing the loan interest and faced with refinancing it by the end of the year. The problem lay with the operator with so many wells being done across those 4 assets there in getting these online in a more timely fashion and also the sheer number of different partners and operators across 6 -7 different fields and failing to reach agreement in choosing the hub for which Kveijke would connect to while the earliest was late decade according to the last presenation.

Imo if we'd gone down the refinancing route with a share price around 7p we'd have been maybe doing a raise at 5p to cover that which would have meant another 100m shares possibly.That dilution would would have impacted possibly by a factor of 3 alone on our potential return from Block 2A and also the upcoming DROs all for trying to retain half of 1.55 mmboe 2P (775 THOUSAND BOE) versus possibly creating 3 times as many shares when potentially there is $500m - $1b value potential should Kertang/Block 2A come in. That's why they said they'd look to the assets with the most value creation. To get out with $2.5m net is the better deal when all things considered and the DROs will totally replace the release of Longboat JV many times over and a lower company operating cost base in one jurisdiction.

If it's one thing it's trying not to do what anyone else does in over reacting.

There's a good II investor base here. 'A Bruces' sell off on a fairly low free float stock skewed the drop when added to others uncertainty.

29 May 2024 09:58

"Took an hour to buy 300k shares ranging in size from an initial 100k at 9.4p (8:08) to my last two 2.5k buys at 7.75p (9:14 & 9:15)." - where i was immediately underwater by about a quarter.

I expect around £25m minimum value at least when the DROs are announced in underpinning my base case. That's about 43p and a near 40% discount to UPLs £40m m/cap. The upside is huge from that level on success which can come from either assets.

If anyone hasn't studied the latest Block 2A presentation - the Kertang 9 tcf mid case recoverable prospect is described as an undrilled giant and on slide 5 it is compared as analogous to Lang Lebah 5 TCF and Kasawari 6TCF. LBE include the reference to Lang Lebah - "Unravelling an abandoned giant" by Aquilah (Amir Jamalullail and others- The leading edge 2020)

https://longboatenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Malaysia-license-SK2A-extract-from-EAGE-presentation-January-2024.pdf

Yet in that article, Lang Lebah lay dormant for 25 years after initial drilling and it was only in 2016 that new 3D seismic and reprocessing was carried out and a new well drilled that made Lang Lebah one of the largest gas discoveries of 2019

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343411866_Unravelling_an_abandoned_giant_in_Central_Luconia_Province_offshore_Sarawak_Malaysia_-_Success_story_of_Lang_Lebah

"Lang Lebah, located in block SK410B in the South China Sea, is one of the biggest gas discoveries off the Malaysian coast.

The Lang Lebah field is estimated to hold five trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas in place.

The field was discovered by the Lang Lebah-1RDR2 exploration well, drilled in March 2019 to a total depth of 3,810m. The discovery well encountered 252m of net gas pay in the Middle Miocene carbonate reservoir.

The Lang Lebah-2 appraisal well, drilled in January 2021, confirmed Lang Lebah as one of the biggest gas discoveries in the region. Drilled to a total depth of 4,320m, the appraisal well encountered more than 600m of proven net gas pay in the carbonate reservoir. The well test demonstrated a flow rate of 50 million cubic feet (Mcf) of non-associated gas a day. The Lang Lebah field is expected to come on stream in 2027 and will produce up to one billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas per day." (165,000 boepd)

https://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/lang-lebah-field-development-sk410b-malaysia/?cf-view

Kasawari - "Discovered in 2011 offshore the Malaysian state of Sarawak, the Kasawari sour gas field is today a symbol of Southeast Asiaâ€™s energy challenge.

Petronas is eyeing next year for first gas. By 2025 it hopes to see 900 MMscf/D (150,000 boepd) flowing from the field to its sprawling Bintulu LNG export facility on the Sarawak coast.

The scale of Kasawari, found at a water depth of about 108 m (350 ft), is a result of its ranking as one of the most CO2-laden gas fields planned for development globally. When wells are flowing, it's expected that up to 40% of what will come out will be CO2.

New research from Rystad Energy suggests that the capital inputs required to add CCS to Kasawari will hike the projectâ€™s breakeven gas prices from roughly $3.50/Mcf to more than $5.00/Mcf. "

https://jpt.spe.org/what-you-should-know-about-offshore-and-sour-gas-ccs-high-cost-leak-mitigation-and-transportation

Better than expected.

No dilution. $2.5m/circa £2m cash. Debt free.

57.11m shares @ 11p is £6.25 m/cap.

Provisionally awarded a cluster of several material undeveloped gas fields (and as i pointed out Topaz Energy set up at companies house barely 8 weeks ago to take these.) Too small for the majors and mid size Cos but these will be material to us - material ! They have numerous times said awarded at no cost based on a credible plan.

By comparrison, imagine instead being awarded acreage that was virgin, awaiting to be drilled and raising money for such as many Cos do and then the discovery drives the share price. The discovery is already made.

Likely RBL with an approved dev plan put forward to Petronas pre award.

The CPR will be interesting but it seems to be just on the Kertang prospect for now but from what's been described re other structures and that visually available in the past slides and the annnouncement on 29/5/24 block 2A could be well in excess of a 15 TCF opportunity.

They've consistently flagged and said Kertang is beleived to have a 9 TCF recoverable figure given it's size (2/2/24 - At about 17 mins into the interview James Menzies says they beleive there could be in excess of 9 TCF recoverable for Kertang and at 18:30 he states that 'there are multiple structures surrounding Kertang that are also extremely big - it's just that they are dwarfed by this giant.').

And 29/5/24 "recently completed a key exploration review gate with PETRONAS where additional, SIGNIFICANT prospectivity on Block 2A has been identified.

Two areas of interest have been delineated: firstly surrounding the Kertang structure, where several large structural closures analogous to Kertang have been mapped and secondly in shallow water, in the southwest of the block, where the continuation of a play that has seen several notable recent gas discoveries made in younger, shallower horizons to the south of 2A.

I'd be surprised that at least two of the largest structures when viewed in the presentation don't have in excess of 3 TCF each and then the additional shallow water play.

"Multiple large companies have approached Longboat regarding Block 2A"

With significant major interest in a farmout and operatorship, it just might attract a future cash payment to ourselves to bolster our finances significantly when considering how we take the DROs forward. It's a world class size play and market hotspot.

1) Farm-out and carry to a possible major from 52.5% down to a remaining 15-20% and a possible cash payment ?

2) It could be fairly easy to sell down a further 5% for cash to someone else when such a deal is done (who would be effectively carried as well by the major partner/operator).

The addition of industry stalwart Geraldine Murphy last month who i said might have already looked over the strategy and had her input long before her announcement was a big pointer to the ambitious plan and possible change of direction.

Yes i beleive they are capable - more than capable.

For starters the likes of Petronas don't give over operatorship to companies if they don't beleive their credible. They are a credible team.

No matter what you think of the dissapointment or strategy, all the wells drilled in Norway were with excellent partners who also saw the potential in those wells. That's the nature of the game. If they had of come in alot better we'd be singing their praises. Every companys' presentation and adm doc is full of risk warnings, potential for dissapointment, dilution, change of strategy etc and there for a reason.

We can say all we like about them not finding or buying production assets for whatever reason - cost?, competition?, just look at the hassle/delay with these small two we have (that the other partners held and other partners bought into) with cost over-runs. If this had happened to a larger asset we could well be in a more difficult place right now so who knows?

I'm not usually an investor in out and out exploration companies other than small punts but see better potential this time around as production or near term production with exploration.

I held GKP in Algeria where they had decent production/reserves and they went all the way down from mids 40s float and caught me on the hop when they decided to exit Algeria where success was mediocre and went to concentrate on exploration in Kurdistan and down all the way to 7p and lower to 3p with nothing else to underpin it. I recall being down from 19p buy in prices and continued to add to the lows and got out over £3 while they ran on to over £4.

Cove was mentioned here (9p as Lapp Platts). I bought into them because they had minor production assets with the exploration upside - it ended up being the explo assets that gave the huge 240p payday and no longer needed to concentrate on production. There were investors who wanted them to hold a stake through to the gas production but after being sold in 2012 the asset is only now nearing development. Some of the same team have had little luck in their newer O&G venture.

Imperial Energy from 20-25p to £18 and bought out at 1250p was an exploration success in a hot spot . There were times when it dropped over 50%. The same CEO/owner wasn't able to achieve any meaningful success later in Paraguay/Argentina.

It's all about studying any company making asset such as Block 2A and an underpinning production or near producing asset of quality which i beleive we'll get.

At this price even with dilution, i still see this as extremely cheap and sometimes you have to see the potential from your own perspective, past experience on share price performance elsewhere rather than through the eyes of others who can rightfully feel dissapointed but that shouldn't cloud the potential where it now sits.

Re Cove Energy, remember it well from the 9p days as Lapp Platts and sold within 3 years for 240p and a £1.2 billion valuation despite the dilution along the way. Major gas discoveries of Mozambique which were no more than exploration plays in an untested country but had some of these lookalike smaller discoveries already a long way away across a man made border ie Tanzania/Mozambique.

Re todays Hibiscus deal - What value for an early long life production asset as a DRO opportunity for LBE versus the below ?

Or as for Kertang - about 70 km from infrastructure and is a potential 1.5 billion boe recoverable prospect with the possibility of the other 3D covered prospects and shallow water play potentially taking that potential to 2.5 billion boe.

On a 10-20% interest post farmout we could be looking at a net play of 150 - 500 mmboe to LBE. I was using a low $3/boe figure with the potential for $450m/£350m of value for 150 mmboe if successful. Even on 120m shares it's around £3/share for that size.

I didn't buy into being a pure exploration play so picking up a near term producing DRO would be an ideal way to underpin the company.

Todays news - Hibiscus buying Block B, 85 km off Brunei (next door to Sarawak) which is the late life mature MLJ fields from Total Energies for $259.4m.

Production commenced 25 years ago in 1999.

Buying a net 24.2 mmboe 2P and 6.8 mmboe 2C as of 1/1/23 with 7,865 boepd production. (84% Gas).

2P cost = $10.71 per boe or $8.36 per 2P/2C combined and $32,980 per flowing boe.

Presentatation

https://ir2.chartnexus.com/hibiscuspetroleum/docs/Analyst-and-Fund-Managers-Briefing-Deck-Proposed-Acquisition-FINAL.pdf

June 14 2024 Reuters) -French oil and gas major TotalEnergies will sell its Brunei business to Malaysian independent exploration and production firm Hibiscus Petroleum for $259.4 million, both companies said on Friday. For Hibiscus, the appeal is in acquiring a well-established natural gas asset in a stable neighbouring country where the group hopes it can boost output. "We have been looking for the right opportunity to enter the Brunei energy industry for some time and ... the additional volumes from this transaction ... will provide an uplift of nearly 85% to our gas production," Hibiscus Petroleum Managing Director Kenneth Pereira said in a statement.

Hibiscus said it expects the asset to add 7,900 boepd of gas and condensate to the group's total production in 2024, with plans to improve performance over time by cutting operating costs and investing to slow the field's decline.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TOTALENERGIES-SE-4717/news/TotalEnergies-sells-Brunei-unit-to-Hibiscus-Petroleum-for-259-million-46971804/

Net debt at end 2023 = $473.7m

My expectation on net debt in my post of 21/3/24 13:51 -

" At end of June 2023 net debt = $443.4m.   If the net debt hasn't reduced and is still the same as of mid year 2023 - then with roughly $59.5m Stubb Creek acquisition costs to add to that ( less almost 7 months reduction for the effective transaction date for 75% of the cost) = approx $55m in total.   Net debt perhaps $498m.

*** Above is my baseline for not making any reactionary decisions re price swings come what may re S.Sudan ***. '"

========================================

On reflection today - i'm more than pleased. Above was taking into account the Sipec acquisition bringing it to $498m.

With the Sipec deal not yet added to this (and it will be reducing in final cost) my expectation was unmoved at $443m.

While it has risen by $30.4m to $473.7m this was affected by a late payment arriving in January a few weeks after the yr/e cut off. If had arrived as anticipated this $97.8m payment (now received in Jan 2024) would have meant the yr end net debt would have been $375.9m.

Add the Sipec acquisition (still reducing until completion ) of my forecast $55m and net debt would be $430.9m which is significantly below my expected $498m figure.

Numbers affected slightly by 10% reduction in revenue due to 10 year anniversary complete shut down inspection on top of annual maintenance.

Are the F/exc hits finally over ?

Accugas throws off phenomenal money when interest, debt and f/ex taken into account.

$1,220m being claimed at arbitration for Chad (one third of this would leave us debt free if successfully awarded and even sold to a 3rd party for recovery).

South Sudan acquisition progressing and i hope this is still on track for completion soon.

At the time of signing in Dec 2022 it was stated production was 153,200 bopd for 2021.

At the very least it's good to see those numbers had not materially changed to the end of 2023 with 149,000 bopd for the year.

Imo at least 50,000 bopd contributed to end Feb 2024 with at least 15k bopd this past 3 months until the pipeline fully operational again expected any day.

If HH is the chairman of the JV only, does he have any say anymore what the board now decide (doubt it) ?

Also is he truly working towards getting us further assets in Norway or seeking those now solely on behalf of Japex ? Did he really leave to become a defacto manager of Japexs Norwegian operations is something i've wondered about - so like to know more come the end of the month.

Perhaps we could retain the production assets for now ?. The only spanner in the works/worry is if somehow Equinor again slip on the completion timescale say by another quarter and perhaps the budget is a bit higher and squeezes us more to put more cash up front/cash shortfall coming in ??

The assets we have as 50% of the JV -

Our net share of the production assets at the higher production level must be closer to $7.5m. Also is there a rebate this year end from the govt for capex or is it exploration expenditure only. If so this would add some more cash.

What value to the rest of the Norwegian assets -

The JV farmed down Lotus a few months back from 30-15% to Concedo in exchange for us being fully carried. At 15% this was worth on a discovery 4-6.6 mmboe to Concedo so what might they or others possibly pay for our discovered resources ? I'd like to know what that was worth in terms of drilling costs because surely the other 7.5% net is worth something to us if we sold this off pre drill = $500k+ ?.

5% Net share of Kveikye = 1.5 - 3 mmboe discovered resources (Equinor maybe ???) + a further drilling target . $1.5m - $3m ?

10% Net share of Oswig discovery/flow tested estimated by OMV to be 1-4 mmboe. Oswig South still to be drilled. $1- $4m ?

10% Velocette, low end discovery worth 130k - 1.1 mmboe net - basically valueless for now if ever ?

Could the following be farmed down or valued at $500k -$1m each - or sold to Japex lump sum who could later farm them down at their discretion/timing for more value for themselves ?.

10% Magnolia analogous to Kveikje to drill (net 3.9 - 5.7 mmboe estimate),

12.5% Jasmine to drill analogous to Kveikje 1.25 - 3.75 mmboe net potential.

12.5% Sjokreps to drill 2.5 - 37.5 mmboe net potential.

"Longboat strongly believes that the joint venture has significant remaining value and is currently exploring all options available to fully realise that value for shareholders".

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