Member Info for ZENGAS

'Getting farmed out - Hitting the jackpot with the odds stacked against us is the big gamble here'

I disagree.

The company isn't relying on that as its one sole asset and as an investor nor am i. Hopefully though at the least it brings in a cash injection of some sorts to use elsewhere to build us out.

2A is one thing - The DROs have 'discoveries' for development. We are as far as i can see going to have instant discovered resources no matter how many people can't take that into account to differentiate here ("several material and undeveloped gas fields") in comparrison to coming to market to explore to make those discoveries first.

Reminds me of Peter Levines existing discoveries that people couldn't get their heads around when it came to market at 20 - 25p approx that it should have been worth x amount more. An exit at 1250p/share and from memory £1.4b m/cap. Undoubtedly nowhere near imo on the same value creation potential here, but to have discoveries at no upfront cost is a game changer at the current or even £20m m/cap.

Beyond 2A, the DEWA DROs - further assets on the horizon.

I don't see what the issue is.

Some either don't read the adm doc or make themselves aware of these things prior to investing.

It's a standard practice. They could go work at alternative companies that also reward thus why bother.

Afentra yesterday, it's present in Save where i hold both. Saw people throw a wobbler when the same plan was activated at Kistos as if they didn't know about it.

Wasn't that long ago there were posts about a 5p placing here.

23p strike - shares aren't in play anyway but they intend to net settle so actual shares issued could be a lot less than the 4 amounts indicated this morning under current tax rules (possibly 47% less shares).

Let's see what the potential is for a farmout cash element payment ahead of funding needs in Q1 2025 and who the potential faminee might be ?.

If they were to pull in $10m at a 20p future placing - it keeps the share issue potential at 100m. Could better that perhaps given the 23p option strike price set today.

I expect the DROs to be significantly debt financed if there is significant resources there.

A $500-$1B gas prize in 2A is still a target of over £3.50/share on the above imo so it will be interesting to see what the broker analysis is on both 2A and the DROs.

I wouldn’t read anything into that. Where were ONGC, CNPC, Petronas, Nilepet and one or two others that ‘are’ actually oil companies ?

President Deby has postponed his planned visit to France on July 15th according to AI where he was due to meet Macron. Says it's a direct result of the French Prosecutors Office that launched an investigation in January of which Deby only learned of at the start of July. Investigation in to misappropriation of public funds and concealment.

Also from https://www.digitaljournal.com/world/france-probes-chad-leader-over-luxury-clothing-spending/article

Going back to TrustILies post on 27th June re the set up of 3 new power companies and the possibility of buying Calabar power plant (or others) as not being that far fectched. I have a feeling something may in the bag here. It could be very interesting to our balance sheet.

From memory we were owed a very substantial amount of legacy debt that was parked up even pre Accugas acquisition accrued to SAVE.

One point sruck me from that post - " there are a few teething problems such as the bid quotes and payment mode and other issues which are already being resolved".

I don't think it's far fetched at all given the companies are already formed by Savannah.

In tandem to the power plant sales, the government is paying down this legacy debt gradually which currently stands at about $1.3b to the sector. From 6 weeks ago - "The payment for legacy debt is actually going to be made but from future royalties and exchange of incomes in the gas sub sector which is quite satisfactory to the gas supply companies."

"Furthermore, the Minister explained that the ministry has received presedential approval to proceed with payments, contingent upon the reconcilliation of outstanding debts bewteen the government and the power generating companies."

https://nairametrics.com/2024/05/17/fg-to-pay-n130-billion-as-part-of-n1-3-trillion-gas-supply-debt/

I see the government is going to pay some of the historical legacy debt in cash and the rest in a guaranteed debt instrument (surely if applicable, we can sell this debt instrument onwards ?).

The legacy debt and the current debts (current debts 3+ months) - from the same article above - "According to the minister, the President has endorsed the proposal which is to clear the outstanding debts owed to gas suppiers by the power sector. He explained that the payments would be divided into two categories: the legacy debts and the current debts".

What takes someone of this calibre to LBE ? Outstanding contacts, deal making and described as an industry legend in Malcys recent write up. With us already being approached by a good number of potential partners her experience will be invaluable. I expect further deals in the pipelie in bringing someone of this calibre onboard.

22-12-2012

GERALDINE Murphy heads the oil & gas advisory team at Standard Chartered Bank and is leading the team advising Cove Energy.

She joined the bank in 2007 following the acquisition of Harrison Lovegrove & Co and has over 20 years of oil and gas deal experience.

Prior to joining Standard Chartered she was an executive director with CIBC World Market’s Oil & Gas M&A team in Calgary and London.

She has advised on over $25bn of transactions in the sector including recently advising

Chinese NOC Sinochem on the £532m acquisition of Emerald Energy.

BP on the $7bn sale of assets in US, Canada and Egypt to Apache Corporation in 2010.

https://www.cityam.com/meet-the-advisers-2/

She joined Impact Oil and Gas in July 2016 as a non ex and in the following year Impact had major farm outs to TOTAL and CNOOC (Chinas Nat oil Co).

MIKE DOHERTY, EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN OF IMPACT OIL & GAS SAID:

“WE ARE DELIGHTED TO WELCOME SOMEONE OF GERALDINE’S CALIBRE TO THE BOARD OF IMPACT. GERALDINE’S WIDE RANGING ADVISORY SKILLS, OUTSTANDING TRACK RECORD AND DEEP SECTOR KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERTISE COMPLEMENT THE EXISTING SKILLS OF THE BOARD AND WILL BE OF SIGNIFICANT VALUE TO IMPACT AS WE ENTER OUR NEXT STAGE OF GROWTH. OUR BUSINESS MODEL IS BASED ON OUR ABILITY TO ATTRACT, AND ARRANGE JOINT VENTURES WITH, MAJOR COMPANIES IN OUR INDUSTRY.”

https://impactoilandgas.com

Now currently Senior Advisor at TPH&Co the Energy business of Perella Weinberg.

https://tphco.com/team/geraldine-murphy/

From LBE - "brings a wealth of financial and transactional experience with over 35 years of energy investment banking and M&A advisory roles. Geraldine currently serves as a Senior Adviser at TPH&Co., the energy business of Perella Weinberg Partners where she was a partner and head of TPH International since 2017. She has worked in the energy departments of Standard Chartered Bank, CIBC World Markets and Harrison Lovegrove amongst others.

Thanks Streets and everyone. Appreciate all the feed back.

On seal and gas chimneys/leakage etc - it's worth reading up on the links for better understanding of Marjoram, Lang Lebah and Kasawari in respect of analogues to Kertang. These were provided in slide 11. All 3 are in development and sour. They're provided for a reason ie to read further and understand what we might have here.

Sources were -

1 Kasawari image from “Geophysical Applications in Malaysian Basins”. PETRONAS, 2019, in co-operation with EAGE

2 Lang Lebah image from “Unravelling an abandoned giant in Central Luconia Province, offshore Sarawak Malaysia – success story of

Lang Lebah”. Aquilah Amir Jamalullail et. al. The Leading Edge, August 2020

3 Marjoram image from “Top seal integrity assessment using seal properties and leakage phenomena”. Foschi, M. & Van Rensbergen,

P. Marine and Petroleum Geology,139, 2022.

Marjorams gas chimney actually hid a multi tcf gas field.

"The Marjoram Gas Field is a multi-trillion cubic feet reservoir obscured by a large gas chimney" Lengthy article but extremely well worth it when you get to the detail and explanation of the seals, overburden, amplitude anomailes (such as Kertang) and gas chminey.

"The main conclusions are as follows

1. The Marjoram Gas Field is a multi-TCF gas field obscured by a large gas chimney composed of 10s of amplitude anomalies and consistent with the definition of vertical anomaly cluster


2. Detailed analysis of the vertical anomaly cluster, using centroid analysis, reveals a precise pathway for gas leakage across the overburden

3. Integration of the geophysical observations with pressure test data shows that mode I dilation of a fracture induced by the 455 m gas column in the reservoir is responsible for leakage

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264817222000514

"The development of the Rosmari Marjoram gas field is significant as we estimate reserves to be just under 3 trillion cubic feet that will support a revival of gas production in Sarawak. With an estimated 800 million cu ft/d of production, this will contribute to more than 5 million tons of LNG per year," Zhi Xin Chong, Director of South and Southeast Asia for Gas at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said separately.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/lng/071322-shells-malaysia-gas-project-moves-ahead-with-engineering-contract

Shell starts development of Rosmari-Marjoram’s onshore plant

21 Sep 2023

Bintulu − Sarawak Shell Berhad (SSB), a subsidiary of Shell plc, marks the start of the onshore plant development for the Rosmari-Marjoram project with a ground-breaking event in Bintulu.

Siituated 220 kilometres (km) off the coast of Bintulu, off the coast of Sarawak, Malaysia. The fields will be primarily powered by renewable energy. .

The project comprises a deep-water subsea facility, a remotely operated offshore platform, and an onshore gas plant. It also includes one of the longest sour wet gas offshore pipe

Valueseeker re your posts

08:59 "CO2 is an ever present risk on drilling.


"The acerage is 100km offshore.There have been no drills out that far yet in Luconia. 
The other dual big risk is seal ( i.e. that the gas formed and was present but has leaked) . 
The directors specifically talked about all these risks yesterday. 
Ok you don't want balance ( or facts) just ramping...sorry."

09:16 "Good for 'size of prize'but in real terms low this is fact ( i.e. there is 73 to 84% that the drill will be a duster. FACT"

==========================

To balance your post and as you don't know the basic distance offshore i can only think you're not that well researched on the rest of your assumptions.

2A/Kertang is deemed out of the CO2 window as the presentation and geochem sampling shows but saying that many (many) fields up to 40% CO2 are developed - Kawasari for one !

There are drills that far out. There are 2 significant discoveries east of them, Paus 70km and Talang 90km at the nearby block which is nothing in geological terms as were Cove Energy's low chance of success in Mozambique offshore where there was no drilling compared to across the (man made) border in Tanzania many Km away - geology knows no borders or provinces as they are termed here. They also mention and highlight the new sweet gas Sinsing and Machinchang discoveries south of them also out of the CO2 window in slide 12 which backs up the extensive sampled data that they are out of the CO2 window - this makes a farmout even more desirable. Shell are already this far out in the adjacent block with Inpex even further offshore.

The acreage is 385 km offshore (not 100). - but it is much closer to existing infrastructure of Saderi, Jintan and the M1 platform.

The directors did talk about the risks and of course risk exists but the risk rating can't improve because of distance in some cases whereas it would improve if there was an existing discovery 5-10 km away which would greatly derisk it but even that isn't fool proof. Another case in point is at Savannah Energy drilling a well on 3D seismic making a significant discovery where years previously the chinese CNPC had drilled on 2D out of structure and assumed nothing was there post drill. As for seal risk there's Intra-formational shale seals and what they term a widespread mmu shale as a lateral seal. As in Coves case - if it's there, it's there to be discovered and there are already pointers and data to suggest gas is there - in what quantity and commerciality only drilling will tell. It might be worth looking at the number of wild cats drilled and the actual discovery rate overall.

The DRO signing will be the earlier and near term value driver here before 2A.

As for Block 2A/Kertang - rather than actual drilling, it's the farmout that will be another value driver. As the CEO said, they hope for some cash from that farmout deal - and if so, then what can we use that cash for ?.

The rig if i heard correctly is secured by Petronas already for a 2 year programme ? The farmout deal will determine when the new operator etc agree on where in that timescale the drilling is slotted in.

The addition of G. Murphy can't be understated. I expect more deals here PRE 2A.

Hope they're better at connecting pipelines than this simple IT task.

Absolute joke, too late now, given up !

Got the link - protected message and won't open ! Unable to join it. No reply from Camarco. Save IR nothing.

1.66 billion boe mid case from Kertang.

With just some of the other very large structures, two more of which appear covered by 3D along with the shallow play that has emerged, I believe we will be looking at circa 3 billion boe.

The biggest play in town for £10m m/cap .

The DRO award should mean a few multiples to the current valuation.

By comparrison our block has 6,350 km2 3D and 17,500 km lines of 2D seismic so counting the 2D this has saved us more than $30m imo if we were to do that now compared to $35m last year for an offshore 3D survey to 5,000 km2. (see below).

From 2018 - "Over a one-year period, the average price of 3D surveys has increased by 20%, while that of 2D surveys has risen by 25%. "

"The cost of a High Level 3D survey is now $250,000/d with a 2D survey costing half or even a third of the amount. Between 2015 and 2017, when the slump in activity was at its height, the price of 2D acquisition was comparable to that of hiring a source vessel. The problems of fleet over capacity in relation to demand seem to be diminishing.Following four years of decline in the global geophysics sector, 2018 had already brought with it a return to growth with an increase of 4%. The crisis led to a radical reconfiguration of the market (Fig.10a).

15th June 2023

"In addition, a 3D survey over PEL 87 and the surrounding area in the Orange Basin offshore Namibia had reached progress of being more than 50% complete as of late April, according to Sintana Energy. The survey will cover a total area of 6,872 sq km. Initial processed results should be available by the end of August.

Woodside Energy reportedly covered the costs of the $35 million 3D seismic survey over an area of at least 5,000 sq km. "

https://www.offshore-mag.com/geosciences/article/14293452/seismic-survey-market-finally-recovering

Leaving aside Block 2A for the moment because that's not going to be the only asset for value creation.

To get an idea of what the provisionally awarded DRO may be worth, i'd look no further than Conrad Asia Energy Ltd. They are NOT in production.

For 3 DROs with a combined 161 bcf net to Conrad (27 mmboe) the valuation attributes US-$88m/£68m to these ie $3.25 per boe.

In Aceh Indonesia the offshore 3 discoveries (DROs) totalling 161 bcf net. *** "The CPR ascribes a Net Present Value (“NPV”) of US$88 million to the Aceh PSCs net to Conrad on its net attributable resources of three of the discoveries". ***

https://yourir.info/resources/3f46e16f9e883e80/announcements/crd.asx/6A1211411/CRD_Chairs_and_CEOs_Address_to_Shareholders.pdf

Depending on what size our net share of the DRO is, using the same figure per boe as Conrads CPR valuation. 10 - 15 mmboe+ net boe or £25m of value could see a value attributed of over 44p - 66p/share. We'll soon see what they mean by material resources from several fields ? (44-66p would be in the £25m - £37.5m m/cap range but at least backed up by actual boe's).

Another 10p only values the 2A/Kertang opportunity at £5m despite having over $20m worth imo of 6350 km2 3D and 17,500 km lines of 2D seismic.

Hi Streets, If possible can you ask them what's their thoughts on the Africa Intelligence article last week on Kiir supposedly being opposed to the deal given the length of time it's taken to date.

It's too far for me Streets but enjoy the day as i'm sure a few will make it.

It is anticipated the CPR will be published at the end of June.

Subsiduary name changed to that of the DRO assets up for grabs (and already provisionally awarded).

The investor presentation is next Thursday the 27th and just one day shy of the last reporting day of the month. Imo, it would be a pretty bland affair to hold the presentation without the above being included so i would have thought there would be meat on the bones by then so to speak - otherwise why not just hold off a few more days if nothing of substance to talk about.

With the name change to Longboat Energy (DEWA) Ltd the DROs must be in the bag.

Has to be the DEWA complex.

'The bid deadline for the MBR+ assets — three DRO clusters offshore Peninsular Malaysia and two DRO clusters (DEWA Complex and Ketapu) offshore Sarawak, East Malaysia — was 15 January. For these assets, MPM envisages awarding the PSCs in April or May and signing the PSCs in June this year.'

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/malaysia-to-unveil-2024-licensing-round/2-1-1587111

Topaz Energy Ltd that was established 8 weeks ago at Companies house has been registered as a name change today as Longboat Energy (DEWA) ltd as a subsidiary of Longboat Energy PLC.