Our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with QuotedData's Edward Marten has just been released. Listen here.
Hillseeker, thanks for recommending the Zulu principle. I have finised reading it.
My £25k loss seems pale in comparison to the knowledge I have gained through reading the book, and listening to yours and Soders discussions.
Hi everyone, is anyone familiar with the situation in Israel ? They have had a good vaccination campaign and COVID has been largely controlled. The VOCs have the ability to evade antibodies but the vaccinations still reduce the death rate drastically.
How is the pre COVID, peak COVID and post COVID testing market evolving in Israel? This might give an indication of how the rest of the world will adapt.
Porky, the guy was honest to the markets. I do not fault him. How else did you want that RNS to be worded? He cannot read the future. He can only guess.
He has done a tremendous job so far. Whatever job you do, you are likely to see some bad spells. If you have the grit and perserverence to see it through, you can only grow.
At moments like these, we need people more than ever to show support.
Might I add, for those who cannot find the filter button - I managed to find it today. Its actually in plain sight but try this : Control + F, and search for filter. Just type the name of the person you want to filter. Good luck.
Hi Wolverine, i doubt we will hear anything this week. My bet is on the following week. My justifications are based on the following reasons.
1. Contrary to what others might think, there has been a consistent RNS towards the end of the month in the recent past.
2. This point is more important than point 1. Quoting the RNS from 29th Sept :
"Under the terms of the contract, which is in two phases, Primerdesign will supply its products to the DHSC for up to six months. Phase one has an initial fixed term of 14 weeks with the potential to extend supply by a further 10 weeks"
The 6 months ends on the 29th, which is the last week of March. They might already be running the 10 week extension which they probably did not feel like sharing with the market. My bet is either on the 30th or 31st.
3. Looking at RNS history, it seems to land on either the Wednesdys or Thursdays. I will therefore place my money on the 31st of March (Sorry this reason is more gut feel than evidence :))
I am also coming to my 1-year anniversary, motivated by the likes of Shaun et al on this wonderful bb.
https://cdn.bcdtravel.com/wp-content/uploads/WYNTK_COVID-19_Airport-testing.pdf - This might be confirmation that Newcastle airport is using Primerdesign kit.
Hi all,
Where is the evidence to say institutions are increasing their holdings ? I only see pictures of twitter without dates on. How are we certain than Blackrock is holding 5% and loading up. The platform Morningstar does not give you the latest account. Could someone point me out to the right platform.
I am shocked that Oddo have predicted P/E <2,5 for Novacyt which indicates an expectation of reducing revenue. We can tell by whats happening that the revenue is not going anywhere atleast for the next 12-15 months. Promate, Snpig, instruments, landscape changes in testing etc.
Thanks!
I am trying to understand if i am working it correct. P/E = price /earnings. Earnings = profits/no of shares.
Price = 6.80
Profits till year end 2020 = 100m roughly
No of shares = 70 m roughly
Earnings = 100m/70m = 1.5 roughly
P/E= 6.8/1.5 = 4.5 roughly
so we are trading at a P/E ratio of 4.5 which seems higher than what others mentioned (2-3)? Can someone confirm my calculation/understanding?
Soder,
I believe this is slightly better than concensus. 316m Revenue vs 290m by SP angel & 305m by Numis.
Margins of 80% which is 210m comparable to the SP angel and Numis reports.
SP now is around 10.50 - this has a 40% rerate to get to where we are supposed to be.
Forward looking statement "However, the Directors believe demand for the Company's COVID-19 product portfolio will remain strong throughout most of 2021" - to me it means we will be able to get very good sales atleast till Q3. The DHSC contract is also very positive. Between the two, i would expect full year 2021 revenues to be atleast those of 2020 , if not higher.
Based on that - i would state that the fair value is looking between 18-20 GBP.
Harchris, 10m is accurate based on this report, which refers to 34000 tests/day by Novacyt to the NHS, back in October. Might have increased with more absorption of Q machines.
https://www.wired-gov.net/wg/news.nsf/articles/500000+daily+testing+capacity+reached+in+ongoing+drive+to+boost+test+and+trace+03112020144300?open
Hi guys,
I am of the opinion that the contract is running slightly behind. If we only managed to deliver 160 machines in the first 8- 10 weeks, it is likely we need another 8 weeks to deliver the remaining 140. The first contract is only closed after the delivery of all the required machines. Extension can happen anytime, but i think it will only become official after the delivery of the original contract.
It could be a case where the model is based on a figure based on performance in August/September & confirmed order placements, prorated over till December. To be conservative, the growth was probably not accounted for as it would be a guess. Not sure of the AIM rules, for which Soder can correct me, but my guess is that orders that do not affect forecast by certain minimum value, say 10%, do not need to be RNS'd. Its only a matter of time that these small orders start accumulating and push the forecasts, potentially even by 100%. Broker has not come around to reforecast and Novacyt are still playing by the rules. Any thoughts?
I am going to go with GBP450- 500 million for 2020 revenues, in line with Shauns estimate. The basis is 70 mil for H1. 150mil for DHSC phase 1. Based on link below, NHS PCR sales is worth 10mil/month (at GBP 10/kit) = 60 mil for H2. I estimate without basis ofcourse that NHS is worth 25% of sales, therefore, sales outside the NHS is worth 180mil for H2.
Pegs it at 450mil, with additional IT-IS instruments, i think this can vary between 450-500 million.
Numis estimate 350m revenue, for an estimate of approx GBP 13, whereas Shaun estimates around the same for a higher revenue. I only learnt how to value a stock after following shauns calculation. Given previous trends on the SP, i expect the SP to rise till 20 following the results rally, before falling back to 12-13 range, and the likes of 9inch start crawling out of the woodwork.
https://www.wired-gov.net/wg/news.nsf/articles/500000+daily+testing+capacity+reached+in+ongoing+drive+to+boost+test+and+trace+03112020144300?open
Apologies if this is known information, but this link indicates a possible uptake of promate , and the influence of kits within the NHS.
https://www.wired-gov.net/wg/news.nsf/articles/500000+daily+testing+capacity+reached+in+ongoing+drive+to+boost+test+and+trace+03112020144300?open
"In addition to these pilots, last week new Primer Design Rapid Turnaround PCR tests were rolled out across 86 NHS Hospitals, which will provide 34,000 tests to patients each day"
I apologise if this is well known information, but thought it was worth sharing. Its an old RNS that i picked out on the FT.
https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/full?dockey=1323-14070622-53KJJ2LQ53EC19PUU44DBRN30T
It gives an indication of sales of Q16/Q32 in the years preceding the coronavirus. between 2015-2019, there were 450 Q16 units sold, with a 40% increase between 2017-2018.