Member Info for zccax77

You do not know what the FX rate will be this time next week let alone how it will behave in the future, if you did you would just buy currency forwards. You have to take the underlying currency cashflows as they are.

The question with any investment you need to ask is whether it is ex growth industry as per shopping centres or a growth industry like Amazon etc. Look at the 5 chart for INTU year and you will see a steady decline to zero, what do you think will change that?

Enjoying this

What a scam!

The currency argument is a fallacy. Almost all their income is gbp so there is no real bargain here from a cash flow perspective

BoD cannot be trusted. You do know that Matthew Roberts was instrumental in selling Debs to private equity back in the day.

You are not paying 40p for the price of the equity, you are paying 40p on a binary option which may pay out a £1 or may go to zero.

Intu in my opinion is a value trap, don’t be fooled. If you really want to invest then buy HMSO, they have nicer assets and likely will be acquired by someone bigger, just don’t expect £7.25 a share though like they wanted last time.

Word of warning,I would not believe a single word coming out the mouths of the BoD. At Q1 they said they expected LfL to decline by 4-6%, what did we get 8%. Whatever they say double it.

The talk of rights issues when your equity is valued at almost nothing compared to a £5bn+ debt pile just goes to show how they think.

The best outcome I can see is a sale of the business to a US group at zero equity value.

You forget that the rental reductions from Arcadia monsoon and others have not flowed in through in Q1. HoF will likely close their Intu stores. You have to understand the BoD are brain dead, they seem to be expanding their sites when demand is dying. Now they want to refurbish Lakeside at a cost of £170m, absolutely banal. If you really like to invest in retail then I would in HMSO. INTU management = dross.

Big V is the deposit taking legend of retail. The cost of deposits are 0.6% which he then doles out 2%+. Each store takes in £4m a month in additional deposits, so as time goes on the balance sheet expands, and usually by year 5 each branch becomes profitable.

No profits is a massive problem. The BOD should never have IPO'd this on a loss making basis.

Been investing in FC since 2013, I always thought it made too little money on loans and was a basket case.

You have a better chance of recouping your money here than AML ;-)

The problem is everyone is suffering from reduced NIM at the moment, including CYBG, RBS etc. Even Tesco have given up and are closing shop.

Just wish there was a 75% discount on their cars :-(

Time to buy this would be post rights issue/re-finance. At the moment there is too much uncertainty.

I am not sure you understand the issue here. AML needs capital, debt markets will not help a loss making company meaning they will have to do a rights issues. Investors get nervous when they hear rights issue since it means dilution, and inevitably you get a falling share price and no one wanting to catch a falling knife.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-7317957/Hedge-funds-overdrive-94m-bet-Aston-Martin-share-slide.html

Balance sheet stabilisation will take the rest of the year and as soon as the 2bn deposit outflow has been replenished, I expect them to restart their growth mode. Big V is big on his 20:20 model which is 20% growth in ROE over a 20 year period. He wants to grow the business massively but is stuck between a rock and a hard place.

AML cars are now mostly rebadged Mercs with last gen drivetrains and electrics. It's been bankrupt 7 times in its history and running out of cash fast, 127m cash on balance sheet which is nothing for massively capital intensive operations.

Not looking too good here.

I personally would not call AML a contrarian play due to a high chance of insolvency risk. Big losses, huge debts and a lack of cash mean either a rights issue or D4E.