Member Info for zccax77

https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=MTRO&share=Metro-Bank

see director holdings at the bottom.

Donaldson owns 300k shares which have lost a total of £8m in value. Expect him to turn this around. Not many companies where shareholders and management are aligned. Hill owns 3.3m shares, and has lost £160m over the last year or so.

Just seen the strategy presentation from a few weeks back, must say I was impressed and think Rico is the man to turn this around. Might be 3-4 years but I can see this go back to 600p again.

I doubt there will be any more bad news to come before year end.

They are currently adding customers at a rate of 100k a quarter and deposits are flowing back at £100m a month. So at year end their deposit basis will come back to the same as Q4 2018 and their customer numbers will be 2m. The P&L result is unlikely to improve until next year due to their restructuring costs and NIM decline as a result of getting the deposit base back.

Who cares about profits when this thing can grow by 20%+ pa. Lets say you hold for 4 years. This thing will double in size, a pure recovery play.

This thing is oversold. This is easily a £10 after 2019 just based on growth trajectory and customer service record. The total MC is now ~500m, so only valued at the 375m placing and the additional 120m they received from the RBS redress scheme, so silly mr market has completely discounted the £1.4bn of market cap, as well as the £200mn they burnt through in the early years as they were trying to establish themselves.

Paid in capital £1.6bn – Pre-placing
Placing £0.37bn
CI funding £0.12bn
Total: £2.1bn

MCAP: £0.5bn

Anyone buying this would need to pay atleast £2bn.

Very bearish ft article.

Lol

Why the rush, just sit back and wait for management to execute their 20%+ growth strategy. Will be worth double that soon enough.

See the bottom of the link and tell me what looks weird:
https://www2.firstdirect.com/

I think that is the big conundrum. 90% of the investors want Hill due to his reputation as the 23% compound growth over 30 year man, but the 10% of the UK muppets would prefer he left since they don't like brash Amercians.

Vernon's other bank in NY is Republic Bank which currently trades at book value. They must be looking across the pond at this thing trading <30% of BV and thinking stoopid Brits ;-)

There is a reason why they always stump up the cash when Vernon calls.

current balance sheet is 22bn. You do the maths. You have to understand, most of these HNW investors have not invested in Mtro, but have invested in vernon's ability to execute. Vernon took $1.5m in 1973 to create Comercebank and sold out for $8.5bn in 2008 to TD bank. His old bank now called TD Bank NA is still the largest bank in the US East Coast with a BS of $300bn. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/

Look up concert party rules in the takeover code. Some of these investors are funds so would prefer the public markets.

Doubt they will do this, since non-institutional investors are only 10%. Their ultimate goal is to create a 100bn balance sheet, which they think they will get to by 2025

Why would an interested party even offer anything to the equity owners for this. They will just wait another 12 months until the next major re-finance and just buy off the administrators.

If INTU fail, expect NRR to go to 100p

When will you people understand the enterprise value of intu is not just the equity of 500m but also the debt of 5bn. So whoever buys will need to pay the debt off due to change of control. Stop comparing to NAV/PS and start including the debt into the value and you will note it aint that cheap. BV = 8bn and falling, MV= 5.5bn. so only a 30% discount on a asset with falling values and falling income. Not a great deal if values fall another 30%.

Harry Martin, an analyst at Bernstein, said that the speed at which the Fosun proposition was put together indicated how urgently Thomas Cook needed to find funding.

https://www.ft.com/content/afdd01a0-bab7-11e9-96bd-8e884d3ea203

This is not cyclical. It is long term decline. The amazon effect. There is value here but you will not see it, the bond holders will via D4E.

BUR is likely to be a better recovery play than this turkey.