Member Info for zccax77

Is anyone going to bother buying these. Seems like there is no point now.

2020-09-18T15:35:14.350 GBX 13.54 35461532 4,801,491.43 UT XLON

Oogle, I would love to smoke what you are smoking. Those ships will never make £100m profit pa, try £20m. Though I agree re the insurance business which I would value at closer to £1 considering the £400m debt.

Look at the bond price. It is screaming 20% coupon if they need to issue MREL's.

That is the MO for most insurance companies. Their GWP was up 2.5% in 2020. I await to see what Sir Roger does. Sir Roger built up the entire insurance business after taking over from his old man.

That is the risk with this, unless they get AIRB between now and FY results they will be forced to do a placing unless the MREL framework review is favourable. I will not be holding this into FY results.

I do not see a takeover in this environment unless we get a vaccine, if this thing did not have these crazy leases it would have been acquired long ago.

The leases the old chairman entered into to give his missus a job on the side are like a poison pill. Consider MTRO as a retail property holding with a bank attached to it. MTRO just need to hang in there and keep on growing their customer base, as time goes on those lease liabilities will decrease and their income base will increase.

Jed have you even read the H1 RNS, their cruise and travel may be losing money but their insurance business will likely make £140m of gross profits. This will easily offset the travel losses. They made trading EBITDA of £54m in H1, therefore from a cashflow basis they will still be cashflow positive from a trading perspective at year end.

They will reduce occupancy/loadfactors to enable social distancing
Have a test lab on the ship, with frequent testing
Their air con only blows fresh air, no recirculation
They pick up all passengers by car individually

Pianista. Most cruise companies have the option to stretch out builds and I believe Meyer Werft gave Saga an option to delay delivery to 2021. SAGA already have one vessel available and ready. Each ship requires 48 crew in warm lay-up as well as the interest payments starting when delivered.

Look at the news from P&O today. Don't expect cruising to restart until Q2 2021. SAGA's brilliant BOD still decided to accelerate the delivery of the second ship.

Those ships might generate £40m each, but what they fail to tell you is that they are mortgaged to the hilt. Each of them have interest payments of £10m pa as well as depreciation of £10m pa. So what they really make is £20m pa each.

So his connection with SAGA is that he worked on the SAGA Rose for 5 years when he was young.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VV7jeqoVOFY

Go to 4:30.

with 3%?

Google him, he definitely sees value.

Looks like the underwriting might take a bathing on this one.

I have a feeling this will fall to 10p (old money) post consolidation, however long term I am positive.

Perfect timing to take a second ship and put it straight to warm lay-up.

yes it will, since it is fully underwritten. I personally don't think I will bother. Not much difference in the price and I think it will go below 12p in the next few days