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Not sure what you mean gogadget? Tullow hasn't given individual guidance by field for 2025 as they usually do. The KOS gross guidance is the same as TLW's mid number but also includes field split.

You raise a very good point Supercooper. Effectiveness (or not) of the BOD? 5 yrs ago there was a capital markets presentation by Dhir following McDade's exit. One of the analysts Q's on that call was basically. "The reason TLW got into (the McDade) mess was poor or complete lack of corporate governance. What are the company going to do to stop that happening in the future? Nothing has changed! You could argue that the current BOD's are even worse than before. Needs a complete clear out!

Don't know what others feel but I'm not convinced Dhir's explanations for Jubilee under performance were exactly candid as we have learnt much more from Richard?

And you could argue Dhir hasn't acted quick enough. The '26's need sorting out asap. But we won't get the crucial 4D processed probably until 3Q which will give a reading on reserves good or bad essential for the bond refinancing. Recent asset sales since he left should have been done before.

Dhir has been kicked out but we are still left with terrible hedging going forwards. $59 isn't it? Should have been more like $70 to $75. Problem was Dhir had convinced himself oil was permanently in the $80's.

I could go on! Exiting Dussafu in Gabon and effectively spending that money on increasing exposure to Ghana was dumb! Dussafu Gabon would have been TLW's best performing block in terms of reserves added. Multiple discoveries have been made since the sale. They announced another 25m barrels gross only 2 days ago from 2 wells. So what happened? TEN was supposed to produce 80K bopd, JUB 120K BOPD according to Dhir after they spent >$1bn drilling wells. Actual reality TEN 17K JUB 70K!!! Meanwhile Panoro who bought Dussafu have gone from strength to strength.

"The question is why did RD get it so wrong....."

Most of his decisions were extremely poor in my view. None worse than exiting Namibia for nought. The 2026 Bond Offering said "In June 2019, we acquired a 56% operated interest in PEL-90 offshore Namibia, which we operate. This was a strategic, low-cost acquisition with no drilling commitments adjacent to the acreage where the Venus-1 wildcat will be drilled in the third quarter of 2021. This positions us favourably to leverage the potential increase in valuation to PEL-90 if there is a discovery on the same play in the adjacent block." What happened? Total Energies spud Venus-1X on 1/12/2021 and announced a giant discovery at Venus on 24/2/2022. It the middle of the 84 days it took to drill the well, Dhir inexplicably exited the block for nought. The what was basically a cashless shell Custos inherited Tullow's 56% and in short order negotiated a farm out deal with Chevron valued at between $80m and $100m. Namibia is now one of the hottest frontier exploration plays in the world. Every major on the planet was rushing to get in. Only one E&P company in what must rank as one of the dumbest E&P decisions ever exited Namibia in the middle of a closely watched high impact exploration well.

P65 of the annual report is interesting reading. it boils down to ".....if a holistic refinancing was not executed by the end of June 2025 and receipt of proceeds from the sale of Tullow Oil Gabon SA was delayed (as assumed in the Low Case scenario), the Directors plan to enter into discussions with the lenders under the RCF to extend the maturity of the facility to align with the timing of completion of the holistic refinancing or the receipt of proceeds from the sale of Tullow Oil Gabon SA. Should this not be possible, the Directors will pursue alternative bridge financing from commodity traders or secure an alternative source of financing from private credit markets ahead of the projected shortfall at the end of June 2025. The Directors have received unsolicited offers of credit from such counterparties in excess of the need to alleviate the projected shortfall and would seek to engage with them and progress such offers, if required."

What does holistic refinancing of corporate bonds and debt mean?

FWIW. "..........'Holistic refinancing' of corporate bonds and debt means a comprehensive and multi-faceted approach to restructuring a company's debt obligations. It involves not just replacing existing debt with new debt, but also a broader consideration of the company's capital structure, including debt and equity, to achieve a more stable and efficient financial position.

Elaboration:

Beyond simple refinancing:

Holistic refinancing goes beyond simply replacing existing bonds or debt with new ones at potentially lower interest rates. It's a more strategic process that considers the overall financial health and future needs of the company.

Debt and equity considerations:

A holistic approach examines the balance between debt and equity in the company's capital structure. This can involve issuing new shares, buying back existing shares, or adjusting the debt-to-equity ratio to optimize the company's financing.

Multiple objectives:

The goal of holistic refinancing may include reducing overall debt, extending maturities (longer repayment terms), improving cash flow, reducing interest payments, and achieving a more flexible loan structure.

Example:

Peloton's recent refinancing, as described in their press release, is an example of holistic refinancing. They replaced a mix of existing debt with a new term loan facility, convertible senior notes, and a revolving credit facility, achieving a reduction in debt, extended maturities, and more flexible loan terms."

"Including his averaging down what would RG's average be around ?"

He held 22m on appointment at an unknown buying price and has since added 4.1m at an ave buying price of 27.28p, God knows why? Jubilee production seems to be heading for 70K (if it's not already below that number now). Doubt if they will get the "holistic finance" sorted by end June. The bond holders will want to see the money in from Gabon. I'm beginning to think Tullow's situation could potentially be pretty dire.

Incidentally, despite what Rahul may have flagged up as upside before, the 2024 Annual Report says

"Additionally, the carrying values of assets in Argentina and Cote d’Ivoire were written off by $39 million and $16 million, respectively, due to lack of planned expenditure on licences prior to expiry. Furthermore $10 million was written off in relation to the Sarafina well at Simba, in Gabon."

It really is all about Ghana now!

Agreed & if they take up the option JMAX. On a separate matter I looked up my notes taken from Tullow annual reports regarding one of your fav topics - Jamaica. Here we go

2014AR

In November 2014, Tullow signed a new Production Sharing Agreement for a large prospective acreage position offshore Jamaica (100%). The Walton Basin and Morant Basin areas cover 32,065 sq km and include 10 full blocks and one part block in shallow water to the south of Jamaica. Tullow has committed initially to carry out low cost offshore operations (bathymetry and drop core survey) and seismic reprocessing work ahead of making a decision whether to proceed and acquire a new 2D and 3D seismic survey in the initial three and a half year exploration period.

2015AR

In Jamaica, a 2D seismic survey is under way over the 32,056 sq km Walton Morant licence and will be completed in the first quarter of 2016 to delineate potential plays in shallow water.

2016AR

In Jamaica, following the completion of a drop core and seep study in the Walton Morant blocks that identified a live oil seep, Tullow will acquire a further 680 km of 2D seismic data before considering the acquisition of a 3D seismic survey.

2017AR

In November 2017, Tullow agreed, subject to Government approval, a farm-down of 20 per cent of its 100 per cent interest in the Walton Morant licence in Jamaica to United Oil & Gas plc. A nine-month extension to the licence term was also granted, enabling a 2,100 sq km 3D survey to commence in April 2018. This follows a successful 667 km 2D seismic survey in Jamaica in the first half of 2017.

2018AR

Interpretation of a 2,200 sq km 3D seismic survey recorded in 2018 continues as Tullow matures prospects that can compete for capital for drilling in 2020.

2019AR

The Walton-Morant licence exploration period expires on 31 July 2020.

2020AR

In 2020, the Group withdrew from its exploration licences in Jamaica. (And wrote off $36m) . The end.

Since UOG took over operatorship nothing much further seems to have happened. Despite the assets (apparently) being valued (potentially) at 15 zillion dollars and 15 zillion times the current market cap. There were supposed to be some surface pistol core samples planned by UOG but even that will no longer happen as that exercise will now (apparently) be undertaken as part of farm in proposals. Jamaica doesn't seem to be moving at all. Wake me up if a major ever farms in. Meanwhile back to sleep.

Inconveniently for some arguments on here Kenya is already a world leader with (90%) of electricity generated from renewables

https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/kenya-energy-electrical-power-systems#:~:text=Renewable%20Sources%3A,from%20renewable%2Fclean%20energy%20sources

"What this board desperately needs is proper discussion."

Well yes we can all agree with that but I'm not sure how regularly accusing folks of being a "liar" aids the matter!

Anton, thank you for your analysis of the deal. It seems very generous to Tullow at Gulf Energy's (GE) expense! Let's say, for arguments sake, it's a full scale $3.5bn export by pipeline scheme. Why would GE spend 25% of $3.5bn, or $875m on TLW's future share (assuming TLW back in) and then let them have it for nothing? the rns said "Tullow retains a back-in right for a 30% participation (before Government back-in) in potential future development phases at no cost." The key word there perhaps is "future" i.e back in could only occur at beginning of each development phases meaning Tullow have to pay their share of costs? The RNS is not exactly clear about this issue by I cannot imagine TLW will be able to say back into a phase 2 if they have not already backed into to the proceeding phase? Otherwise it's like GE writing a series of blank cheques. GE cannot be that dumb.

"Amazing oil find for BP, little explorer close by sitting on 7b potential barrels....."

What a load of rubbish. "Close by" Err no! It's over 2,000 kms away. It is not even in the same geological basin.

"United's Internal estimate NPV10 of c. $23 billion....." Err no! The market only values it at £1.6m Mcap less £1m cash so really only values the asset at £0.6m, not $23,000,000,000. What a joke. Lol!!!

Having re-read the rns (tman & Anton) I've been persuaded by your arguments! Maybe they don't have to pay!

Tman & others,

"there hasn't been much of a market reaction" We don't yet know what kind of development (local or pipeline export) the buyers are envisaging. Tullow have zero cost "back in" rights but IMO that still means they have to pay their way with development costs. That's $1bn TLW haven't got to progress the pipeline export solution. The buyer (an oil trader) will probably need an e&p to join the project to bring the requisite skills and some cash. Maybe they already have a partner waiting in the wings? But anyway it's still a good deal.

Same as it has always been for say the last 6 months, or more. It ultimately hinges on a successful refinancing of the '26's. The rest was just Rahul's empty upside BS. At least we now have an (albeit temporary) CEO who talks little and delivers more.

Well they have done better than Total Energies and Africa Oil who walked away with nowt.