Member Info for xxnjr

I don't believe Seplat are interested in a Tullow merger at the moment as Seplat have their hands full consolidating MNPU. However Africa Oil who have Net Debt/ EBITDAX of 0.3x are currently looking to acquire an asset. ".....Meren Energy — which until this week was named Africa Oil — is poring over five opportunities to acquire producing assets and has up to $500 million to spend, according to the company’s top official." I could see that they might be interested in a slice of Jubilee if Tullow were minded to sell. Don't think they would be interested in the who company due to the poison pill of the debt pile.

Supercooper - You are right. I had the same feeling about 'spin' under the former CEO. Also agree that they could be more proactive in updating the market. Maybe they will once the uncertainty due to the refinancing is out of the way? Let's hope anyway.

Someone asked about the next tanker for Jubilee. It arrived this AM but as previously mentioned ETA Jubilee was a result of an event in Angola. So it's anchored in the waiting area. Not really anticipating any loading for at least 4 days. We'll see.

"Like for instance the spudding of the planned well in May - place your bets on whether we'll get a notification." There won't be a specific RNS but since that well will be spudding around about the time of the AGM, it will get a mention in the AGM RNS. Anyway the rig is loading off Takoradi, so spud should occur in about 5 to 9 days.

Actually 5 dead + 1 missing. Sadly the 6th person was apparently considered so insignificant that Perenco left us hanging without issuing a further press release.

Supercooper - Not convinced the talks were terribly serious on KOS's side. I've been wondering (without knowing - so this is not an accusation) if perhaps the "very, very preliminary" discussions could have been initiated by Tullow and then somewhat mysteriously and to Kosmos's complete surprise word got out?

".....and making this more attractive to Kosmos. Anyone else have any thoughts on this."

KOS No.1 priority is reducing their $2.8bn debt. Buying a heavy indebted company probably wouldn't help that objective. But FWIW this is what their CEO Andy Inglis said on the matter on their 4Q results call in response to an analyst Q. ".....However, and most importantly, free cash flow accretion, which you know, given our focus on leverage reduction, it absolutely has to be part of of any transaction. So you know, that’s what we did on the Oxy deal, for instance. So if you sort of come back to Tullow, I think the short answer to you is, you know, are we planning to look at it again? And the answer is no. You sort of know the background. David. We we were at a very, very preliminary stage. Before we were forced to put out a press release just to end the talks. We obviously have no intention of using Kosmos Energy Ltd.’s currency at the current stock price depressed levels, which was a view shared by our shareholders."

TEN was an oilfield that produced some associated gas. It has morphed into a gas field that produces some associated oil! Currently associated gas (from oil production) accounts for 61.5% of total TEN boepd production. Jubilee despite all its issues is the jewel in the crown as it breaks even at about $35/bbl against >$65/bbl for TEN. In 2027 on 10th anniversary of TEN FPSO, theFPSO lease reduces by about 50% which will help.

That should read Gabon cannot directly be compared to Jubilee!

(as TEN has high costs/bbl and very probably a negative NPV with weaker oil prices).

JBond - If we are talking only about oil - your 45K include Gabon. Oil only guidance is about 37K BOPD without Gabon afaics.

Go - There was one after with a 17 day interval. Also worth noting that cargos (which historically have averaged about 955,000 bbls for literally years) appear to have become smaller recently - around 907,500 bbls which makes a bit of a difference, which is why the Petrocom numbers were even weaker than loadings suggested. New Melody is a VLCC. VLCC's load 2 x Std Cargos (typically 900K to 1,000K bbls each). It's picked up one already in Angola. What I'm saying is ETA Ghana is dictated by what happened in Angola so we'll have to see when the Jubilee loading actually starts. (my intervals are based on start loading date + 1 day, as bill of lading happens the following day, on disconnect as about 1.5 days to load a std cargo).

No need to beat yourself up about it! Anyway with that Guvnor letter I'm more confident the deal will close.

Sweet!

"Funding of the Transaction

The Purchaser intends to fund the Transaction through a combination of cash on hand and a prepayment facility from Gunvor. Prior to signing the SPA, Tullow received a letter from Gunvor Middle East DMCC dated 12 May 2025 (the "Gunvor Letter"), confirming that the Purchaser has entered into a term sheet with Gunvor on 12 May 2025 for a fully underwritten prepayment facility in an amount of US$220 million for the partial funding of the Transaction (the "Term Sheet").

The balance of the consideration is to be funded from the Purchaser's cash resources. The Purchaser has confirmed to Tullow that it has sufficient cash on hand to fund the balance of the consideration not covered by the debt facility on Completion."

Ref my previous comments a while back about the need for a GPP II to process additional Tullow gas. It will probably just be a talking shop and take yrs to get built but at least it's sort of back on the agenda

https://www.mofep.gov.gh/news-and-events/2025-05-12/new-gas-processing-plant-will-be-a-game-changer-for-ghana

Except they are saving ($100m*10.25% minus $100m*interest rate on bank deposit).

Ah thats good. That will reduce 2026's outstanding to $1,285m. And there's $400m drawn on Glencore. Just need to get Gabon deal over the line now. Followed by Kenya.

My only agenda is a search for the truth. Unfortunately sometimes the bullish hyperbole on here collides with facts that are already in the public domain. If I choose to point that out it doesn't necessarily make me a short. But at the same time it's perfectly understandable why many would think so. And that is not a problem. All is good. Maybe I could just point out the numbers I provided over the week-end came from official Tullow documents. For example

The well count and 80K production profile for Kenya are on P112 and 115 of this TLW ESIA

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/7315/9307/2709/Kenya_ESIA_2020.pdf

The relevant Profit Oil splits and Kenya.gov back-in rights are on p196 and p198 of the Tullow 2026 10.25% Bond Offering Prospectus which is available for download from here

https://www.luxse.com/issuer/TullowOil/70375

And the 'R' Factors I quoted are on p138+ of the Kenyan 2019 Petroleum Act here

https://www.epra.go.ke/sites/default/files/Documents/The%20Petroleum%20Act%202019.pdf

Hope the links work. DYOR is the way to go.

Tman - As a first step may I suggest you order the following book. This will give you an insight into the workings of PSC's

https://www.amazon.co.uk/International-Exploration-Economics-Contract-Analysis/dp/0878148876

"Let me put it in another way: do they get about half of what the other party gets? (70% - 30%)"

Sounds like they would get 24% of, and this is from Tullow "the remainder of production is then shared between the Government of Kenya and the Contractor based on percentage splits determined by reference to the average daily production (with the Government of Kenya percentage share increasing at higher production rates and the Contractor recovering between 50% and 25% of total production for 13T and 45% and 22% of 10BB.

Or roughly 12.5% and 6.25% of 13T and 11.5% and 5.5% 10BB profit oil assuming Kenya.gov back in?

$45 PC sounds low given that the 130K plan probably requires more than 500 wells (as the 80K plan required 321 wells).