Member Info for xxnjr

Nothing much to get exited about unless there is an extended period of high oil prices. Only about 4 out of 10 Jubilee offloads are for TLW+Petro SA. Intervals are currently 15 to 16 days. So in the next 150 days only 4 Jubilee cargos would typically go to TLW + Petro SA. The oil is priced when a cargo Bill of Lading is issued after tanker disconnect, with the price being the 5 day ave of brent from that date adjusted for oil quality. If oil is $80 for the next 6 months - yep thats great! If not then nothing much has changed. Hence the (so far) underwhelming response. Could go either way I guess.

"TLW will have to wait at least 8 years to benefit from this 30% stake."

Not necessarily. It depends on the scope of the development plan(s). Doesn't seem like there is a high up front cost associated with, let's call it Phase 1 which seems more like an EOPS+ which may involve wells that are already drilled, facilities that are already there and export by road tanker.

Nobody cares!

Nobody cares. But if it makes you feel better fair enough.

Yeah this comment was factual ".....For someone who says he’s not short you sure spend a lot of time posting, especially if someone says anything positive!"

They have in fact received 3, or 4 payments for Gas. Part of the $50m has been repaid but additional supplied gas since means the outstanding amount remains $50m rather than a number say 30% larger than that.

The Annual Report said ".....Additionally, the carrying values of assets in Argentina and Cote d’Ivoire were written off by $39 million and $16 million, respectively, due to lack of planned expenditure on licences prior to expiry."

The immediate benefit of licension extensions will be cessation of production is further out which means the year end 2p reserves report well include additional reserves that otherwise wouldn't have been captured as the existing reserves report assumes production will cease around 2035 if not earlier.

Didn't the annual report suggest TLW were exiting those 2 CDI exploration blocks? Separately CNR/Tullow are hoping to offload the producing block to CDI national oil company.

Well there's not much promise from Ghana at the moment. "Gogadjet post - ELAYNA oil tanker enroute to jubilee eta 30th May. 14 day interval between liftings, 910k-960k lifting range 65k - 68.6k bopd" The tanker came. But nothing happened. It's been drifting aimlessly for the past week without offloading. As a guess maybe ELAYNA is for TEN and another tanker PETALIDI is the one for Jubilee. Will probably start offload Sat or Sun with a TEN offload next week by ELAYNA. Either way Jubilee loadings suggest kind of 60K unless a miracle happens. If that's the case production is already trending towards the lower half of guidance range.

Some positive news with the license extensions in Ghana! Having said that not much mention of TEN, lower gas pricing on 30% higher offtake volume. But overall - positive news.

Mate - V6 (3/qtrs of Maserati V8) engined Citroen SM's incorporated hydro-pneumatic self levelling suspension!

It was probably forced on them at the time by potential bond investors for Rahul's refinancing but let's not forget they sold Gabon Dussafu and Eq Guinea Ceiba + Okume for about $140m (since the contingent payments so far haven't come in). So having done that, what did Rahul/BOD do? - spend another $118m buying even more of Jubilee & TEN, as opposed to buying back $118m of bonds. May have seemed a good idea at the time but with hindsight perhaps not?

https://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/tullow-completes-pre-emption-deep-water-tano-component-kosmos-energyoccidental-petroleum-ghana-transaction/

Here you are. Judge for yourselves. It's worth reviewing slides 21/22/23/24 of https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/8516/4691/9861/Tullow_Oil_-_2021_Full_Year_Results_Presentation.pdf

Plan was to spend $700m NET on Jubilee, split 50% JSE, 30% infill, 10% JNE and 10% existing wells. Yeah they spent it! Production should be between 100K and 120K now. You will recall that Rahul was always going on about how successful 'JSE' was. So how many producers have been drilled into JSE? 2 according to Kosmos slides! Plus 2 w/inj wells. Meaning the other 14 wells have been drilled into Jubilee Main Reservoirs. How much BOPD does JSE actually produce? Nobody knows! Will they ever drill JNE? Nobody knows!

TEN the plan was to spend $550m on that but after the "appraisal" wells on N'tomme failed to find any oil the expansion project there was canned. Gas was shunted into the sidings, or rather down a line that was to be connected in Rahul's sunny uplands sometime in the future. We are still waiting.

Yeah I appreciate what you are saying there Tman, but look they drilled 18 wells into Jubilee at a cost of let's say $55m per well. About $1bn total. Plus the money they might owe TechniqFMC. Plus any additional sub-sea infrastructure spend. Those wells were supposed to add reserves and boost production towards a steady and flat 120K bopd. Zero reserves were added and production is now about 65K bopd. Just over half of what it should have been if the wells performed as anticipated according to their pre-drill model before the first well was drilled. Same with TEN. 5 wells there resulted in a massive reserves reduction and production of 17K bopd, not the 60K to 80K envisaged. None of the above suggests their modelling of legacy 3D seismic has been great. But maybe you are right, with the 18 wells results plugged into their 3D, that should better define an optimal location for the current well. There's only one producer being drilled now on 3D. If they haven't got an idea of where to drill it now then something is seriously wrong as this one well will have been high graded from all the other potential locations that will follow next year. It ought to be a decent well!

Details are a bit sketchy but one of the issues they have been experiencing is higher water cut than anticipated in some wells. Most oil wells also produce water on their own anyway - it's normal. Not an expert but they are additionally injecting water down-dip to (this is over simplistic) push reserves that wouldn't otherwise be recovered to the producing wells. Also to replace evacuated oil to help maintain reservoir pressure. The higher water seen in some producing wells suggests the injected water has either by-passed reserves that are still there and/or potentially there could be less oil than modelled between the injector and the producer. The 4th dimension in 4D is time. The 4D will show where the fluids oil/gas/water have migrated over time compared to how the field looked on the previous 3D survey. The Reserve Auditors downgraded some reserves due to poor well performance bopd and higher water. The company narrative is that the higher fidelity Ocean Bottom Node (OBN) 4D seismic survey once processed will reveal that some/most/all of those lost reserves can be recovered. That remains to be seen. TLW, that would be Rahul basically(?), seem to have either partly fooked up their recent drilling campaign (about 18 wells) on Jubilee OR maybe the field is a bit smaller than they thought (which is what happened with TEN). The 4D won't be processed for months and will benefit wells next year but not these two being drilled now. In hindsight (easy to say after the event) it might have been prudent to have shot a 4D prior to drilling 23 wells over Jubilee/TEN? Just asking the q - it's not an accusation!

We might also ask - what is ullage for? At 80K/day it only takes 20 days to fill the FPSO. Not long. So is ullage there for pricing reasons? Or to provide extra space to store oil if a tanker arrives late and to not have to shut in production. I guess the answer could be both.

For example just use Jan 77,356 Feb 74,122 as per petrocom monthly.

If I do the 4th/16th/29th Jan cargos according to volume loaded petrocom and average you get 77,678

If you do the 10th/ 22nd Feb + 7th Mar and average you get 73,780

The dates are my dates - occassionally Petrocom get the dates wrong!

It doesn't always work. But I've done it for over 200 cargos myself before Petrocom publish and it's usually a pretty good indicator of direction of travel. The only slight twist now is that every cargo was on average over time 955,000bbls except for the last 3 or 4 which are closer to 910,000 bbls as per Petrocom. Is this a new trend? Time will tell.

Ullage on the FPSO is 600,000 bbls. Hence after diverting 10,000bbls/d for 60 days into longer term storage you tend to get a rather large leak when the other 1M bbls is in place before offload! Only a fool runs their car on empty unless you want to mess with your fuel injection. I guess it's the same with an FPSO so effective ullage is probably less than 600,000bbls. Anyway this is all clutching at straws. Production seems weak. Basically what goes in has to come out. There's nowhere else for it to go and the longer the period of analysis the more accurate it gets.

"It was interesting to note that RG received the lowest re-election vote out of all the directors, with nearly 14% against." Doesn't that suggest the 14% voting against have little trust and/or confidence is said director? RM passed with flying colours.