Member Info for xxnjr

Whatever! (if it makes you feel better)

Marcel K - ref "OP at $65 - and TLW are losing $30M per year at present production levels." I'm not sure you really get it but $400m -$380m -$50m = -$30m meaning the underlying oil business is indeed free cashflow negative on current guidance - which makes refinancing the debt more challenging.

"we need desperately more oil out of the ground" Not going to waste my time writing about it as none of you seem to be remotely interested in discussing the subject. Increasing GOR. DYOR. I'm off to the beach!

Gogadjet - Sorry to read that. Sounds like a sensible decision. I personally feel Tullow is uninvestable as a long term hold until/if they manage to pull off a refinancing and on what terms. There's just too much uncertainty at the moment. I'm sure everyone here would wish you all the best for the future.

Nothing new about TLW. ENI also adding 30 mmscfd to Ghana gas supply. If Ghana don't pay for gas there will be power cuts at some point in the future.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ghana-braces-power-disruptions-eni-121700566.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMPBhyjqP6pypgTOuTIANouuAuNT_CV2oWI6MWrngmEz-Y134XRKDN5mCFMlp7ltTnoxfH_8SqzrPrMUqHn277jNzjeEiLR76xh6PbfaluWcfPQkTPdGG6QsxAQdnCmMYqdBSzB9HFS4km0MfKOghKDFAkT0kvVjhA2hJvMt7jAL

Tman75 - "Just sooooooo gddmn annoying, predictable and tyring."

Try using the Filter (just for a week). My guess is you won't wanna switch back :)

If you believe in your own personal bullish argument then it shouldn't matter if anyone one else is long, or short. Have belief in your own convictions!

He did say AGPC (ANOH) is due to supply gas "very soon".

Sorry typo formula should read: O = (250,000,000/6,000)/0.361 - (250,000,000/6000) = 73,573 bopd

Increasing GOR on Jubilee is the main concern for the next 6 months. Has increased from 2,672scf/bbl to 3,390scf/bbl over 1st 5 months of 2025. Need to reverse that as 36.1% of May production was associated gas which limits oil production to (250,000,000/6,000)*1/(0.361-1) = 73,573 bopd given the gas handling capacity of the FPSO is 250 mmscfd.

Thx superiore very interesting. I also had a look from another angle. Bit of a tongue twister. ANOH gas processing plant receives its gas supply from the unitised Assa North (OML 21, operated by Shell) and the Ohaji South fields (OML 53, operated by Seplat). ANOH-OB3 spur gas pipeline transports gas from the ANOH Gas Processing Plant to the OB3 pipeline, having a diameter of 36 inches and 23.3 km length. The pipeline is designed to transport approximately 600 million standard cubic feet of gas per day. (ANOH GPP ph1 is initially 300 mmscfd). Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben (OB3) Gas Pipeline has a diameter of 48 inches. This 127-kilometer pipeline will transport natural gas from the Obiafu-Obrikom field + ANOH GPP and Oben gas fields in Nigeria. The western end of OB3 is linked to the southern end of AKK by the 196 kilometer SW-NE running Oben-Geregu Gas Pipeline which has a diameter of 36” and connects to AKK. The AKK (Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano) gas pipeline is 614 kilometers long and 40 inches in diameter. It is the first phase of the Trans-Nigeria Gas Pipeline project. The pipeline will transport natural gas from southern Nigeria to central Nigeria, passing through Ajaokuta, Abuja, Kaduna, and terminating in Kano. The western end of OB3 is also connected south to industrial areas including that massive new build Dangote Refinery. In the meantime before OB3 completion some ANOH gas will (apparently) be heading SE to the 6 or 7 train NLNG facility on Bonny Island. Things should be a bit clearer after 2Q results. Hopefully they can take some learnings from AKK tunnelling and apply them to OB3.

According to googleAI ".....the OB3 and AKK gas pipelines require separate tunnels under the Niger River. The OB3 pipeline, which is an inter-connector between the Eastern gas pipeline network and the Escravos-Lagos Pipeline System, and the AKK (Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano) pipeline, which extends to the north, both need to cross the Niger River. The River Niger crossing has been a major hurdle for both projects. The OB3 and AKK pipelines are distinct infrastructure projects, each with its own purpose and routing. While they both traverse the Niger River, they are not sharing a single tunnel." So maybe and frustratingly not quite there yet with the tunnelling on OB3 - although 1Q update said they were looking for alternative evacuation options ...."Beyond the gas plant execution work, much of the focus in 1Q 2025 has been on securing alternative evacuation options, given continued delays to completion of the OB3 pipeline. During the period AGPC agreed preliminary heads of terms for delivery of gas into the export market through the Nigeria LNG (‘NLNG’) terminal. This will act as an interim outlet for gas monetization and work is currently ongoing to make the necessary pipeline modifications to enable gas sales to commence in 3Q 2025."

The NNPC press release refers to 'AKK' pipeline https://nnpcgroup.com/insights/akk-gas-pipeline-nnpc-ltd-announces-successful-crossing-of-river-niger-records-100-availability-on-major-crude-oil-pipelines . Maybe I've got it wrong but thought OB3 itself was also being drilled under the Niger River before connecting to AKK? So is the the same tunnelling operation or a different one? Anyone know? (I should know the answer, but don't!)

Much in the same way as a can of coke goes flat after the initial hissing and popping sound of solution gas escaping maybe we need to come to terms that Jubilee is losing energy and will never recover. It's a 14 or 15 year old producing oil field after all. Whilst (my description) GOR has been 'contained' over the last 5 years GOR has been on the rise having entered a rectangle bottom left and now exited top right if visualising the numbers in graph form. Tougher times may lay ahead.

UOG - well they do say the 'luck of the blarney' is about the acquisition of persuasive and eloquent speech. Not that I've noticed much eloquence in the mutterings of Brian whatever his ex-tullow name is.

One would imagine the board considered various hedging proposals and collectively decided to do what they did. (Perhaps believing that OP would remain higher for longer?) Anyway we'll never know. It is - what it is.

Supercooper - "Hedging is obviously constructed on the basis of what a company can afford (not just Tlw) so to look in hindsight when the OP is in the 60's and criticise Richard is somewhat churlish."

Well yes I agree with some of that but it's difficult to understand why they did what they did, as Zero Cost Collars generally cost zero or thereabouts? It seems management gambled on a more complicated and expensive 3 way hedge with higher potential rewards if OP was much higher. I'm assuming this policy gamble was driven by the ex-CEO (could be wrong) - I'm not criticising Richard at all, as you can see from my previous. But surely the primary objective of hedging is to protect future free cash flow rather than undermining it?

MD - What don't you understand about "Andy Inglis CEO of Kosmos has already confirmed the matter is closed as far as they and their principal shareholders are concerned." As in we won't me making another offer - which is what he said.

I would also suggest hedging 70% of your production (post Gabon) at $60 is disastrous as it guarantees FCF on the underlying oil business (excluding asset sales) is negative at OP $65 over 2025 - How does negative FCF on the underlying business support a refinancing?..... Why are the hedges not placed at say $70 which might generate some free cash flow? Another screw up by the company?

Andy Inglis CEO of Kosmos has already confirmed the matter is closed as far as they and their principal shareholders are concerned.

What I meant was (so far) they seem to be doing the opposite, or under performing with most of the 'strong investment' justifications