Member Info for xxnjr

So you look at https://petrocom.gov.gh/field-production-data/

May Gas 207.26 mmscfd Oil 61,134 bopd

207260000/61134 =3390 scf/bbl

No worries. All good Tman. FWIW these are the ave of 12 months for each year GOR SCF/bbl Jubilee

2018: 1,564

2019: 1,570

2020: 2,122

2021: 2,584

2022: 2,235

2023: 2.589

2024: 2,687

2025(M1 to M5 ave): 2,956

2025 M5: 3,390

So we can see GOR is increasing over time and now over 3,000. Rahul's 17 wells as I've characterised "contained" GOR at say below 2,700 but it's been on the rise this year to May. The concern in my head is whether the relatively smaller number of wells going ahead will contain GOR in the future. Deffo something to keep an eye on.

TEN is now at 9,000 scf/bbl (Jan 2018 number was 1,385 scf/bbl).

Tman - Since you asked I've already declared that as far as i'm concerned and until/if there is a successful refinancing Tullow (for me) is uninvestable. That probably means a reentry at a higher SP than today. I'd also like more clarity on Jubilee production issues, current debt level etc. (And where GOR is going!) I've also said I've been a shareholder for over 20 yrs (on and off) and have done more than well. Over those 20 yrs I've been exposed to a lot of Tullow presentations, capital markets days, drilling RNS's etc which have taught me a lot about the company (good and bad). Plus (for example) I've been analysing monthly GOR data for Jubilee and TEN for the past 7.5 yrs having seen the effect rising GOR had on TEN production. My spreadsheet analyses that and other aspects of production data in a nanosecond. Tanker tracking easy peazy - I can do that from the beach. What I'm saying is none of this takes up any time really as the hard work was done years ago. Do I have an hidden agenda? No - I just call it as I see it. Not everyone one has to have a hidden agenda. Frankly quite a number of my posts are just correcting 'misunderstandings' that folks regularly churn out.

At least that is a smidgeon of positive news :)

The specific issue with the Jubilee FPSO is it can only process 250 mmscfd of gas which at May GOR ratio limits max oil production to about 73,000 bopd - so it's crucial to reverse increasing GOR. If GOR continues to rise the amount of oil that can be produced will fall asleep the FPSO won't be able to handle the associated gas production.

A bit concerning if you have $1bn of debt to refinance!

Well Jubilee is a deep water turbidite field, exhibiting reservoir heterogeneity, scf/bbl increasing from 2672 to 3390 only this yearJan to May 2025, increasing water cut etc etc and production in free fall.

Implications for Deep-Water Turbidites:

Reservoir Heterogeneity: Deep-water turbidite reservoirs are often heterogeneous, with varying sand body geometries, permeabilities, and connectivity. These complexities can influence the location and timing of the GOR inflexion point.

Well Placement and Optimization: Understanding the GOR behavior helps in strategically placing production and injection wells to optimize oil recovery. For example, if water influx is the dominant factor, well placement may focus on mitigating water production.

EOR Potential: The GOR inflexion point can also signal opportunities for EOR techniques. For instance, if gas injection is feasible, understanding the timing and location of gas cap expansion can guide the implementation of gas injection strategies.

GOR and Reservoir Drive Mechanisms:

GOR, the ratio of gas to oil produced, is a key indicator of reservoir drive mechanisms. Initially, in many turbidite reservoirs, solution gas drive (where dissolved gas expands and pushes oil towards the well) is dominant, leading to a relatively stable GOR.

Inflexion Point as a Shift:

As production progresses, reservoir pressure declines. At some point, the GOR curve may exhibit an inflexion point, indicating a change in the driving force. This could be due to:

Water Influx: Water encroachment into the reservoir can displace oil, leading to a decrease in GOR as more water is produced relative to oil.

Gas Cap Expansion: If a gas cap exists, it may expand as pressure declines, increasing the proportion of gas produced and causing an increase in GOR.

In deep-water turbidite oil fields, an inflexion point in the Gas-Oil Ratio (GOR) curve can indicate changes in reservoir behavior and production characteristics, impacting recovery strategies. This point, where the GOR curve changes slope, signifies a shift in the dominant drive mechanism, potentially from solution gas drive to water or gas cap drive. Understanding this inflexion point is crucial for optimizing well placement, production rates, and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques.

Here's a more detailed explanation:

GOR as an indicator:

The GOR is a crucial parameter in reservoir fluid characterization, indicating the amount of gas produced with each barrel of oil.

Oil-dominated to gas-dominated transition:

A GOR of 3000 scf/bbl is often considered a threshold where the fluid starts to behave more like a gas-condensate or a near-critical fluid, rather than a typical oil-dominated system.

Implications for production:

This transition impacts production strategies, as the fluid behavior will affect flow rates, pressure-volume-temperature (PVT) properties, and ultimately, recovery mechanisms.

An inflection point above a Gas-to-Oil Ratio (GOR) of 3000 scf/bbl typically signifies a transition from predominantly oil-wet behavior towards gas-condensate or near-critical fluid behavior. This means that the reservoir fluid is starting to exhibit characteristics more typical of a gas-rich system, with a higher proportion of gas relative to oil.

Anyone want to research "Increasing GOR" and/or "inflexion point above GOR 3000 scf/bbl"?

Well your moniker does start with 'Loon'.

Tman - Not normally one to blow my own trumpet but I think my central message has always been that (i) tanker movements suggested production was weak. I even gave a number (low 60's) which none of you believed at the time until Petrocom published numbers some months later more or less exactly as I'd suggested. I was trashed when I suggested those numbers originally. Called a shorter blah! blah! All that had happened was I had developed a model that works and done my own research and then shared it here.

Ok then Tman. Rather than suggesting I have a hidden agenda. Why not play the ball and explain to us how a company with underlying negative free cash flow can refinance >$1bn of debt?

Flavius - "Why are you doing that? Are you shorting this share (nothing wrong with it of course)? Do you hate this share? Or have you got an agenda for some reason you are not willing to disclose?" None of the above. It's a discussion forum isn't it? tbh I think this forum tends to be a bit on the shallow side at times. Constructive criticism (which could be of value)is not really welcomed by some on here evidenced by 'fouling' the player rather than playing the ball.

Tman - "I can never trust you because all your negative Posts suggest a serious bias.." By the same logic I could never trust you as all your positive posts suggest a serious bias. Therefore Tman you are not trustworthy! Does that sound fair? I think not. I've only written this to illustrate the error of your argument. I of course do trust you. Yeah I get it. It must be annoying to read posts that tend to be predominately negative. But to be fair there is not much to be positive about at the moment (at least until if/when a refinancing gets done) and there hasn't been much to get positive about for years. Having said that I hope my posts perhaps provide some balance to counter the overwhelming positive bias that tends to pervade this forum! If they get the refinancing done and if they can demonstrate decreasing GOR and increasing production (the opposite of that we have now) then I might get positive too.

"News" will arrive eventually. There's always the possibility "news" is "bad news" which could 'spark' the SP in the wrong direction! Let's face it TLW "news" generally has a negative impact on the SP given that it's 99% off it's former SP high of £16.

(my last was for Tman)