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Tman - Yeah basically that's it. We are not at the coalface and have extremely limited data. There are a few basic necessities really. (i) Sufficient well capacity to produce the oil volumes desired (ii) Sufficient processing capacity on the FPSO to handle the water, gas and oil coming out of the wells and (iii) Sufficient pumping capacity to re-inject gas/water and export gas as required. Looking at the Petrocom numbers it looks like production has been constrained in some 2023/4 months by high gas volume but the issue now is not that but production falling off due to insufficient well capacity. So we need more wells. Hopefully that should also reverse the increasing GOR. By how much and for how long? We'll see. And then if required does it make sense to spend more money on upping the gas process capacity again? And I guess a lot of this is ultimately dependent on what the 4D reveals. We could really do with an extremely comprehensive update at results giving us a feel of what future Tullow Ghana looks like.

No, I think not Anton as there have been occasions in the past where oil production has been constrained (either on TEN, or JUB I forget which ) by the total gas production being handled, at limit. The J FPSO was originally built to handle 120Kbopd/230Kbwpd/160mmscfd with the gas being subsequently upgraded to 185mm, then 200mm, then 250mm scfd handling capacity. This was to accommodate the increasing volumes of associated gas being produced. With the specific incidence you've referenced it sounds like one of the gas compressors was down which limited gas re-injection and gas export meaning higher volumes of associated gas would have had to have been flared (and some used as fuel). Yes, you are right. Some months in 2023/4 were at about gas 240-245 which is more or less 250 with downtime. So that could have been THE bottleneck. However gas fell off 4Q 2025 with declining oil production. But gas now increasing again on still low production. It's all a juggling act. Will spending money on more gas handling now make a difference to daily production rates over the medium term?

Anton - Good question. One I had asked. Tullow IR have confirmed that gas processing capacity remains at 250 mmscfd currently. No mention of a future upgrade although I didn't ask that. If you divide that number 250,000,000 (not 250,000 as I erroneously wrote in previous post!) by whatever the scf/bbl is for any past Petrocom month you get an effective oil production limit of the FPSO, e.g

Dec '24 : 250,000,000/2,712 = 92,182 bopd. For example, divide 250 mmscfd by random scf/bbl numbers, eg

250,000,000/2,500 = 100,000 bopd

250,000,000/2,750 = 90,909 bopd

250,000,000/3,000 = 83,333 bopd

250,000,000/3,500 = 71,428 bopd

As I mentioned before scf/bbl had been "contained" below 2,700 for a number of years but by June 2025 had risen to 3,519.

To calculate historic monthly GOR, go to any petrocom month, for example Jan 2025 and divide the gas (206,710,000) by oil (77,356) = 2,672 scf/bbl

250,000,000/2,672 = 93,562 the maximum FPSO oil throughput potential a day in Jan 2025. Which has now fallen to 250,000,000/3,519 = 71,042 bopd for June 2025. In other words rising GOR is increasingly constraining maximum future oil throughput potential of the FPSO. Rahul told us (everything else being equal) increasing water injection would (just in my understanding) increase the reservoir pressure which would (AIUI) lower the SCF/bbl resulting in increased production (or at the very least mitigated decline). Well that does not seem to have been the outcome. New wells should help lower GOR but looks like only one coming on line 2025. I hope this illustrates how GOR is now a potential concern we should all be aware of.

So back of envelope...... how are Tullow doing? 2025FY guidance was 50K - 55K boepd.

Minus 6K of gas = 44K - 49K bopd. Minus 10K Gabon = 34K - 39K bopd. Petrocom data means actual 25-1H production was

Jubilee: 60,903*0.3898 = 23,740

TEN: 16,400*0.5484 = 8,994

Total Ghana = 32,734. Plus say 600 bopd for CDI? Total company 33,334 bopd. Or slightly below bottom of FY oil guidance range. If you assume the one new well on Jubilee mitigates any forthcoming decline over 2H then maybe the narrative at results will be "production trending towards lower end of guidance range" rather than a downgrade per se? They can always do that later in the year if Jubilee performs poorly. All FWIW.

Rising GOR remains a concern. If you divide FPSO gas mmscfd processing cap (250,000) by June scf/bbl (3,591) the maximum volume of oil that can be produced with that GOR and 100% FPSO uptime is 69,618 bopd. Or 67,500 bopd with c.3% downtime.

Rising GOR is hammering potential production upside. They need to get GOR under control. New wells should help but with Tullow actual results are what count. We will not know that for a while. In the meantime it would help if the company could tell us at Results why GOR is rising and what they intend to do about it!

[off topic - Damofarl,

Apparently according to chatter Trump/OFAC are about to re-instate Chevron's Venezuela license. It's not known if this exemption will apply to other producers partnering with PDVSA like Maurel et Prom.]

The mystery to me is why are the Bonds resilient? Gabon and OP help. Maybe as Anton suggests, arrangements are sort of in hand but as ever with Tullow delivery is what counts. We'll learn a lot more at half year results as surely they will have to give a comprehensive update.....

JBond - Thx for your comments. Thats interesting as I hadn't considered that. It's not going to be easy though as I imagine Tullow will be required to demonstrate that (i) the reserves they say are there are actually there, and robust (ii) the 2P NPV of those reserves are sufficient to justify a refinancing and (iii) projected FCF generation over the period of the new arrangements are sufficient to pay back $100m/yr which is the current stipulation with the 2026's. It's perhaps worth noting in Rahul's time Ghana 2P oil reserves reduced from 180m barrels Dec 2020 to 104m barrels Dec 2024. A reduction of 42%.

@MaverickD - "Not sure where you got June 2025 from?" It's in the Annual Report, for example p65 "The Directors have initiated a process to execute a holistic refinancing based on proposals received from banks. The Directors believe this is achievable before the end of June 2025, noting the risks associated with wider market conditions. If this were not achieved by the end of June 2025 the Directors would continue to pursue such a refinancing in the second half of 2025 to alleviate the projected liquidity shortfall in May 2026 and believe this is achievable, again subject to market conditions."

GOR has jumped again from 3,390 to 3,591 scf/bbl. That (I would suggest) is not good. Just look at the gas production. Gone up by 16 mmscfd on similar production vs prior month. Now 223 mmscfd. Max processing cap 250 is mmscfd. Going out now for day.

Ah well there we are low 60's.

The tanker only suggests whats happened in the last 2 weeks (and on average with prior loadings however far you want to go back). It could be that a new well is on-line and additional production shows up in a tanker in say +2 weeks. But of course that remains to be seen. Anyway half year results are out soon.

Jubilee tanker loading today suggests we are still in the low 60's.

It's all rather academic really as by the time a full scale Kenya development gets underway Tullow may not even exist in its current form. The recent Annual Report said the company would like to implement a holistic refinancing by the end of June 2025 if possible. Well that hasn't happened. It's all a bit unclear at the moment as to how they can achieve that. What is the net debt now? It would help if the company could give us some solid guidance on where they see future anticipated production and FCF generation going.

Italians are usually charming!

The drilling rig Tullow were using for that 60 day slot has now left Ghana and is on the way to Las Palmas.

"Cost impost: No historic cost obligation—Tullow doesn’t pay past costs." Hilarious! Given Tullow has already invested $1bn in the project. Still a $120m return is better than nought which was my valuation on Kenya :)

Damofarl - it was a Beech tree!

The most interesting of which is the forthcoming preliminary determination in the £256m (Gross) Vallourec dispute.

On 22 May 2025, Tullow announced that it had extended its Revolving Credit Facility (RCF) to the end of October 2025, with all lenders participating in the extension, demonstrating their ongoing support. The RCF, which is currently drawn to manage near-term working capital, has been reduced to US$150 million, in line with working capital requirements in a low oil price environment. The facility will be repaid and cancelled in full on completion of the Gabon disposal when it will no longer be required for liquidity management.

(f) TechnipFMC Ghana Limited

Technip Ghana Limited ("TFMC") is claiming sums from Tullow Ghana in respect of the Jubilee South East Contract in the amount of US$64.2 million (plus interest and legal costs). TFMC is claiming that the contract is largely reimbursable and that Tullow Ghana has failed to pay all reimbursable sums due thereunder. TFMC also alleges that Tullow Ghana has withheld certain sums it is not entitled to withhold. Tullow Ghana argues that there are certain sums that TFMC has claimed which it is not entitled to be paid under the contract, and Tullow Ghana has made permitted deductions. The Jubilee South East Contract is governed by English law and the dispute has been referred to arbitration under the rules of the London Court of International Arbitration. The hearing is scheduled for December 2025. Settlement of the dispute is a possibility.