Member Info for xxnjr

Loon1962 - It's odd than in the past, before I enabled green boxes, I've been able to regularly see posts such as "xyz you are a liar" from you know who and yet your relatively innocuous posts perhaps have been taken down at the instigation of you know who?!!! What does that tell us about you know who?

It's been a "buying opportunity" every day since it hit £16 according to numerous punters purely on the basis that they had just bought some. Except that it wasn't!

End of yr tarhet is $1.1bn net debt (with probably about $200m of cash included) to be more exact. If the cash runs out the debt, gross debt, net debt or whatever you like to call it would effectively, or be closer to $1.3bn.

At least the music on the webcast was ok!

CEO recruitment? Unless I missed it. No comment in todays release. Are they still looking?.....

Tullow can no longer be accused of sugar coating expectations.

Forgot to mention. One of the Q's from an analyst was basically. With hindsight given whats happened with Jubilee over the years wouldn't it be better if Kosmos was the field operator (not Tullow)? Andy (CEO) diplomatically responded by saying TLW/KOS were working well together and in full alignment where the next 6 wells would be drilled. Also that KOS had been able to bring their Gulf of Mexico advanced seismic capabilities to the table in Ghana.

Any thoughts on the Kosmos call. It was more positive than I was expecting on the Jubilee production front. Getting to the bad stuff in first, it seems to me Jubilee South East is a bit of a failure (quite the opposite of what a certain departed CEO lead us to believe). As I've previously mentioned they've only drilled 2 producers in JSE. None of the current batch of 6 new wells are going down in JSE either. Apparently wells in Eastern Jubilee, both main field and JSE have underperformed. In addition after shut down restart there was unstable/intermittent flow coming up some of the risers (mainly in the East?) as a result of (I assume) relatively low reservoir energy to flow the oil. Now the good stuff. This has been addressed in the east by adding gas lift - that is injecting gas into the bottom of the well which lowers the density/weight of the fluid column being lifted allowing reservoir pressure to overcome that and flow the well. It's relatively cheap and quick to implement. Then on the 6 new wells planned. The current view is that all 6 will be producers. Thats a big change - perhaps in response to weak production and the need to simply get more producers on-line ASAP. 1 now (10K initial at start up), 1 end of year, 4 in 2026. No w/inj wells at all (as apparently) they believe there is currently sufficient w/inj input to support where the new wells will be drilled in main field. Then in 2027/8 sounds like they will need to drill some w/inj wells. Kosmos even suggested these 6 wells could potentially get production back up towards 90K (by say 3Q/26?). Bit of an ask as a plateau but I guess thats possible as an intermittent high with reduced GOR from 6 new wells? The new well came on late July - it will be interesting to see what that and gas lift did to production/GOR for August and then what happens with both until the next well comes on line in hopefully on 4-5 months. Hopefully all of this may make the refinancing easier (than thought) but lets see what they have to say on that front.

It's your personal choice but I'd suggest everyone filters JMAX as this board would probably be a better place. Less distractions and personal insults whether from said one or responder.

This is kind of like an emergency response. They seem to have abandoned the concept of drilling water injectors for the time being as (apparently) the next five wells will all be producers drilled in parts of the field where previous wells have performed well. I have the soon the obn survey has already be done but that's coming later

New well J-71 came on at about 10K bopd. The 2nd well on stream about year end will also be a producer (not water injector). Change of plan there!

The company's last RNS ("Today's news represents another key milestone that accelerates the deleveraging of Tullow. I am pleased with the momentum we have at Tullow, and I look forward to this continuing in the weeks and months ahead. Our immediate focus is on successfully completing the Kenya transaction in 2025 and the current Ghana drilling campaign with the first well, a Jubilee producer, now on-stream.") didn't exactly help as it leaves everyone guessing as to what that meant for the refinancing. Some may now feel it's effectively done. Others that the refinancing may take a bit longer than the 'immediate future' to sort out. Haven't a clue myself.

Reading between the line: No

This is a repeat of one of my posts about 2 wks ago......

I think Tullow have amended their contract with Noble drilling. Frankly I was surprised the rig was off Takoradi as normally the rig would drill the 2 wells scheduled (60 days each) and then depart after 120 days for it's planned class survey and thruster refit before returning in Jan 2026. It was only on location 59 days and now it's off Takoradi loading, or unloading supplies. Looking at "Drillships 7th Gen/ Noble Venturer" current and previous Fleet Status Reports

https://s201.q4cdn.com/439848451/files/doc_financials/2024/q4/FSR-021725-Rev-final.pdf

https://s201.q4cdn.com/439848451/files/doc_financials/2025/q1/FSR-042825-final.pdf

It seems Tullow have chopped one of the 2 wells. So rig is preparing to leave Ghana now one presumes? And just wild speculation on my part FWIW (probably not much!) the drill location of where it's been for the last 59 days looked pretty much identical to an existing well J-66P. Why? Haven't a clue as they have never gone in for drilling sidetracks before from existing wells. Probably barking up the wrong tree with that one. But deffo looks like a new well could be online soon.

"3000 in 25" "that's gross"

Sounds like they are modelling 7,200 now. 5/12ths of 7,200 = 3000 bopd 2025 annual average. But remember the primary purpose of this well is to mitigate decline elsewhere in the field.

Have JMAX on filter. But from your post Supercooper sounds like someone, JMAX (I presume), is getting confused and mixed up with this guidance from the company. The AGM Trading update said "Full year free cash flow guidance is now $400 million at $65/bbl, inclusive of both $380 million of disposal proceeds (Gabon and Kenya) and c.$50 million of overdue gas payments in Ghana from 2024, resulting in expected year-end net debt of c.$1.1 billion." You never know that guidance may even be conservative given OP (so far) seems surprisingly resilient. Having said that Richard is conservative too so maybe they will maintain FCF guidance for the time being?

One director has resigned. Hopefully the first of many. The rest have to go at some point. I'd keep Mitch (ex-Anadarko, very good man) and RM as CEO. Apart from that a blood transfusion is required.

In Richard we trust.

(In Rahal better left unsaid.....)

Well that is good news :) Well done Richard and the team. Also confirmation that the new Jubilee producer is on stream.

Some news on Uganda "Controversial TotalEnergies pipeline costs balloon to $5.65 billion. Costs of EACOP project have surged by more than $2.1 billion since was pipeline sanctioned in early 2022......"

https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/controversial-totalenergies-pipeline-costs-balloon-to-5-65-billion/2-1-1851292