Member Info for xxnjr

Haven't a clue why RG keeps adding to his losses here! A more interesting q is why Marcel keeps buying?

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The chat GTP analysis was pretty clever. Except maybe ask how things would look if the refinancing of 1.3bn gross debt was at 12%, 13%, 14% 15% 16%?

Kosmos said it came on at 10K (not unusual for Day 1 given the pent up energy)

Petrocom said in april, that it would add 2.5K over 25 and 5K over 26 (ave I presume)

We'll know something in about 15 days, 30 days , 45 days from tankers to get a better idea....... something GPT cannot provide!

Seriously though that Cannacord piece was good. It's not what rate a well comes on that counts but how sustainable that rate is and how fast the drop off is.

Have you not noticed the SP has decreased from £16 to 10P. Not bad if you are short.

Although it was clever of AI to cover up my xollob!

that ai generated stuff is ******.

Just to be clear the effective date of Gabon sale was 1/1/2025. All the 25/1H revenues etc effectively went to the buyer.

But who in their right mind would buy a company producing say 35K bopd with about $1bn of net debt?

I'm not convinced they will be able to refinance that easily. As one of the analysts pointed out on yesterdays call - there's not much, if any FCF to facilitate coupon repayments and bond pay down. RM was invited to give an idea of where production was going to end up in 2026/7 but avoided answering the Q directly. He avoided answering some other q's as well. Not exactly a convincing performance. So maybe there will be a hybrid solution - whatever that entails? Dunno what that means for shareholders. Yes I appreciate there are significant savings of about 50% to be made on the TEN FPSO lease starting about April 2027(?) but thats some way off. I don't believe any contingent payments will be received from the 6 wells on Dussafu, as the FPSO doesn't have the capacity to produce those 6 wells at the volumes Rahul agreed (as production also coming in from other fields not part of contingent payment calculation) to set contingency payments at. You will note separately they have also stopped talking about receiving contingent payments from Ceiba+Okume as production never reached the levels Rahul agreed to. The only things left to sell afaics are (i) the contingent revenue stream from Uganda (which is zero below ave op $62) but could be significant. The only realistic buyer willing to buy might be Total itself and Patrick P (their CEO) is an extremely wily character so I think he'll be content to sit on the sidelines for a bit and maybe (ii) the Jubilee FPSO could be sold but then that would add additional lease liabilities so doesn't exactly help. Tullow are in a hole with slippery slopes unable to clamber out. A white knight maybe the only solution.

In fact he's negative £663K on the shares bought since being appointed (I hadn't factored in the recent purchase cost correctly). So needs to buy a lot more.....

The fact remains that if the other directors started buying in reasonably significant volumes that would be seen as a positive. For all we know RG may simply be trying to average down?

Would be more interesting if some of the other directors bought shares.

Maybe he's just buying a place at the vulture's feeding frenzy?

Doesn't change much - he's still down negative £442,000 on 28.3m shares!

TVR's only went up by 307,534 shares as at 31/7/2025. Had been expecting some of Rahul's zillions of share awards to land in July. Maybe next month. Given what we've learnt since he was 'let go' I would be inclined to cancel them.

Yes - to illustrate that they borrowed $400m from Glencore at SOFR + 10% (or about 14.5%) to pay down $400m 7% bonds.

"This document is a marketing communication which is designed to educate and inform investors about the subject company. The subject company pays

CAG a fee to cover the costs of research production and distribution. This report has been commissioned by the subject company and prepared and issued

by CAG for publication in the United Kingdom only......"

FWIW https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/2517/5448/2205/Capital_Access_Group_HY_results.pdf

And note ".....We will review our forecasts following the interim presentation." i.e. the next note will be the one with revised forecasts.

And the forward curve was much stronger then. Evidenced by actual brent ave in following years

2022: 104.3

2023: 84.30

2024: 80.20

"back in 2019 when oil was around 35 dollars and debt at almost 4 billion the debt was refinanced"

But the debt was refinanced in 2021 when Brent averaged $70.30 for that year.

Another tanker loading today. No change really. July another low 60's-ish month.