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Sc - Sorry bit of a ramble and obviously disagree completely :-) The principal reason for the debt being there in the first place was due to the fields being developed in Ghana. This is not unreasonable. Jubilee cost about $3.5bn gross and that was before they subsequently acquired the FPSO from Modec at a later date. TEN, another expensive development was brought on within about 5 yrs of Jubilee. So it's perfectly understandable why debt was utilized to progress those substantial developments. It would have been more sensible if at that point the company had concentrated on their advantaged producing assets and paid down the debt at a high rate, rather than going on an exploration binge all over the south atlantic, indian ocean, pacific south america and barents sea! As you've pointed out PMcD was a key player in the company for 19yrs. Basically from about 2007 onwards the company was run by a succession of people in finance (i mean successive CFO's) plus the triumvirate of Aidan Heavey (CEO and founder), PMcD (COO) and Angus McGoss (Expln). The 4 of them plus legal ran the company for 12 years before McDade and McGoss were sacked in Dec 2019. PMcD was originally COO UKNS but soon became 'COO The Company' then CEO in about 2016/7. He was on the BOD from about 2006 from memory. In other words his fingers were all over strategy and operations for years. Yes I appreciate he didn't actually choose well locations but he was part of the collective decision making process that agreed to that massive annual exploration spend typically $500m/yr for quite a few years. Hence my point below "But let's face it - the reason TLW got into this mess in the first place is mainly, or partly, due to the actions of our former CEO who was summarily dismissed at the back end of 2019....." I won't even go into Ghana FPSO uptime under McDade or months and months to drill expensive high angle wells wells in Ghana that apparently failed to flow. Basically the company found a lot of oil in Ghana, then a lot of difficult to exploit oil in Uganda (no revenue even after 18 yrs 1st discovery), then a lot of difficult to exploit oil in Kenya (no revenue but $1bn spend), then they drilled wells all over the place elsewhere which all failed (apart from the Barents Sea) as their apparent success and being in Newsweek/Time/The Economist etc as "the best explorer on the planet" had gone to their collective heads. Then massive write downs ensued as a result of failed exploration and country exits. I'd be surprised if the institutional investors turned to one of the architects of this massive failure from the hands of success.

It's an interesting suggestion supercooper and one that would probably appeal to the ego of our former CEO. But let's face it - the reason TLW got into this mess in the first place is mainly, or partly, due to the actions of our former CEO who was summarily dismissed at the back end of 2019, leading to Dorothy stepping in on a temporary basis, followed by Rahul. I don't think any of the large shareholders would be very impressed if PMcD suddenly jumped into the frame. It wasn't just Guyana. Tullow were planting their flag all over Africa, S America, Norway, Madagascar and even further a field. To their credit McDade & Co (Afentra) have picked up a nice asset in Angola with low decline rates and FCF gen and readily admit the mistakes they made with Tullow when their heads got completely carried away with drilling all over the planet. Sadly after Kenya success with drill bit, about 10 yrs of dusters followed, resulting in about $8bn, or $9bn of impairments. And looking at it from AET's point of view do they want to get back into fighting a massive debt over burden? I think not. Also on AET's side so far they've has easy pickings. The going may get more difficult when they drill a few exploration wells on that new offshore block, or the 2 of 3 onshore blocks that are relatively unexplored. One thing PMcD does understand is telling a good story. Their presentation slide content is superb. I've e-mailed tullow IR on numerous occasions over the years suggesting they need to up their slide presentational content - so far to no avail.

Flav - That one is easy to disprove https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=11289641&from=61425 as I credited you with finding an explanation for TEN at the time! Given the way this discussion is going I'm not sure there is much to be gained from engaging further. Suggest you filter me. In the meantime have a nice evening and hope your investment in Tullow works out. Take care.

Flavius - Sorry you think that and sorry to sound like Jmax but..... Have I not posted invaluable information on production 2 or 3 months ahead of Petrocom production numbers becoming available? Numbers you've chosen to ignore but could have benefitted from. Have I not suggested that the only thing that matters here is falling production as it strangles the ability to generate the free cash flow need to refinance the bonds? Have I not stated that if/until there is a refinancing then TLW (IMO) is uninvestable. Pretty good info and advice I'd say? The fact you've chosen to not be open minded is your choice. All I've done is shared what was decent research. All you've done is cast aspersions in return!

Maybe it's just a good old panic. Investors catching up with recent events and selling?

The reasons advocated to support what currently appear to have been bad investment choices are getting increasingly bizarre.

Here's the thing

(I). According to my spreadsheet on 31/12/2020 TLW had 180.1 bblls of oil in Ghana. After drilling 21 Rahul wells in Ghana

TLW only had on 31/12/2024 104.9 bblls. How many 2P barrels do you think they will have left in Ghana in 5, 10 yrs time?

Contingent reserves oil in Ghana reduced from 217m bblls to 152.8m bblls in the same time frame.

(II) 18 Rahul wells on Jubilee were supposed to deliver a plateau over 100K bopd. We are 40,000 bopd short of that now. Apparently 5 more will be drilled over 18 months, also another 20 (or 15) will be drilled between now and 2040. Given that a similar number drilled over 3 yrs didn't work - what are the chances of a similar number of wells being drilled over a longer time frame of 15 yrs working out?

(subject to vesting)

Anyway RM already has 7m thanks mainly to TIP. He bought 35,000 at 27.62P and 54,000 at 36p with own cash.

Not new but more prescient this time around perhaps?

Nope. Looks like whatever the 2024 Annual Report may have said, it looks like no share awards from the TIP have been issued (so far) this year.

Agree it would be good if RM bought some. I'd be presently surprised as (1) the recent half year report, and I know it's just a legal advice warning, said "There would therefore be a possible risk of the Group entering into insolvency proceedings, which the Directors consider would likely result in limited or no value being returned to shareholders." and (2) RM doesn't really need to buy as he's awarded shares through the Tullow Incentive Plan. Although - not sure if he received any this year?......

Volatility and publication of results tends to create more posts. The weather has also been cloudy recently as my posts are inversely proportional to hours of daily sunshine!

Thats brave! Hope it works out for you. What is your rationale?

Yes 1.1net but the company need to have about $200m cash in hand to keep things running. So the gross debt being refinanced will usually be net debt + $200m. In other words interest will be paid on $1.3bn less interest received on $200m cash at bank.

Half year report said "Tullow will publish its 1H25 reserves report in September and expects a reduction based on the incorporation of first half production data and field underperformance at Jubilee. The recent sanction of riser base gas lift, the potential uplift associated with new incremental drilling targets and licence extensions are expected to offset the reduction in due course."

Something along the lines of: TLW are required to refinance $1,286m of 10.25% bonds that are due to mature on 15/05/2026. Most recently Tullow refinanced $400m through Glencore at Secured Overnight Funding Rate + 10%. Will Tullow be able to generate positive free cash flow in likely refunding scenarios of say 12% to 16% if production remains flat at 35K bopd $65 brent and 7K boepd of gas priced at $22/boe?

(as I don't think the sept reserves report will incorporate any of the hoped for by the company additional reserves arising from license extensions)

Jeff, it's interesting but maybe (i) you ought to factor in 11,023,368.96 x .3898 plus 2,968,371.26 x .5484 of bblls were produced in 1H and are no longer there? and (ii) TLW told us words to the effect of "poor reservoir performance in 1H will result in a further downgrade with the report being released in September." So what actually are the reserves now?

Also what will a refinancing cost? 12% 13% 14% 15% 16%? What effect will that have on cash flow?

I'm impressed by GPT results and the way it works - but maybe ask again incorporating inputs above?..... thanks!

"......Shares in Tullow Oil PLC (LSE:TLW) fell a further 7% on Friday, extending losses to 29% for the week, as investors continued to react (negatively) to the company’s plans to refinance its capital structure. The move, outlined alongside below-par interim results, raised concerns over potential ramifications for shareholders, overshadowing the first-half figures. Tullow reported a first-half loss of $61 million, compared to a $196 million profit a year earlier. Revenue fell to $524 million from $759 million, reflecting lower production and the sale of its Gabon assets for $300 million. Average production was 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, or 40,600 barrels excluding Gabon. Net debt stood at $1.6 billion at the end of June, with $1.2 billion in senior loan notes due in May 2026. Richard Miller, chief financial officer and interim chief executive, said: “In the second half of the year, we are focused on refinancing our capital structure, production optimisation activities and continuing to optimise our cost base, which, combined with the progress in the first half of the year, will help unlock Tullow’s intrinsic value.”

The outlook for the group is “pretty bleak”, said analysts at Panmure Liberum on Thursday, repeating their ‘sell’ recommendation and nudging lower the target price. Pitching a new bearish target price of 7.8p (from 9p) the broker sees quite significant downside to the current share price of 10.4p.

Shore Capital, in a note, said: "Allowing for non-core asset sales and cash-in-hand, we estimate Tullow requires around $1.3 billion of capital to refinance both the $1.3 billion of Senior Secured Notes maturing in May 2026 and the $400m Glencore Facility maturing in 2028."

A rare Tullow bull, ShoreCap is a 'buyer' up to 11p......."

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1076340/tullow-continues-to-feel-pain-as-investors-fret-over-refinancing-1076340.html