Member Info for xxnjr

The company is being reduced to one core asset that without that costly debt, without that costly TEN FPSO lease, without those costly UK overheads ("we can run most of Ghana locally" RM said) will probably generate profits for years to come. Ghana will become an attractive asset eventually but "bad stuff" may need to happen for that to happen.

Their costs have been too high for years. Many moons ago Aidan Heavey would have been a fairly regular visitor to Anadarko's former wonderful HQ complex at The Woodlands, Houston, Texas (you see can see it the net). Perhaps feeling the need to impress, Tullow relocated to what I call the "Fun Palace" in Chiswick (see it on the net). It's kind of a scaled down UK version of The Woodlands. Years ago I sent a withering email to Tullow suggesting their office costs were far too high that they relocate to a cheaper location closer to Heathrow. Received no response from the company. Tullow need to give up the Fun Palace!

Wouldn't be a surprise if Tullow was delisted at some point.

Since they stopped drilling production has dropped from c.90,000 to c. 60,000 in 12 months. That is the annual underlying decline rate (33%) they are dealing with. Apparently the new well came on at 10,000 which (ref 2021 RD Capital Markets Pres) is at the low end of the typical 10,000 to 15,000 range for new wells. But it's all semantic anyway. It's what happens to the well after 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, 365 days that ultimately counts.

Anton that is laughable. With all due respect you should have done more research yourself. If you had you wouldn't have been ramping Kenya to death as a reason to invest here. And it continues even today with this ridiculous shorts nonsense narrative.

Few$$$'s - If I were you I'd get off the noise of this BB for a few days. Reassess where you are. Go with your gut feel.

22/May AGM TLW said "$400m FCF (inc $380m + $50m Gas)" = Y/end Net Debt $1.1bn

At 1H Results TLW said "$300m FCF (inc 380+50 -$35m Gabon Taxes)" = Y/end Net Debt $1.1bn "as 1 - 1.5 cargos short in 2025 and redundancy payments made at HQ" However its not entirely how $100m less FCF equals unchanged y/end net debt!

Also suggests underlying business loosing $95m/yr at $65 oil over 2025? (+380+50-35-300)

It's up another 8%. Come on Anton. Surely you can ramp it up more! Only 30 mins to go.

Given Paul Baay's track record - I'd rather not!

Will have a re-listen tonight Supercooper. I know one of the analysts asked about that $100m FCF delta but didn't quite get the answer RM gave on the webcast.

Folks on here make something out of the fact there are no posts. You post some posts then they complain you are posting and on here all day!

I mentioned the other day that Tullow pay Capitol Access to produce analyst research on the company as a form of marketing communication. Why are the production forecasts (presumably informed by Tullow) so low

FY25, FY26, FY27 all at about 45K boepd? No sign of production growth whatever - why?

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/2517/5448/2205/Capital_Access_Group_HY_results.pdf

(How much would it cost to buy the FPSO?)

Can anyone explain how they intend to make all those saving on the TEN FPSO lease? What is the TEN lease liability now? How much do they owe MODEC? How much would it cost to but the FPSO? Where will the money come from?

Seriously though - did anyone understand why free cash flow is $100m short of what they told us at the AGM?

Glad it's going up for you guys but what is the rationale for reaching 20p? (not saying it won't happen).

Can someone explain why FCF has been downgraded by 25% yet y/end debt projections remain the same?

Whichever way you look at it it's still down 99%!

20p in the pound would be a generous settlement!

The issue with this "discussion" forum is that some, quite a few on here, seem to have invested significant amounts without having the slightest appreciation of just how bad things actually are. If you try to explain how bad things are and it might be a good idea not to be invested in Tullow in the first place you get jumped on, labelled a "shorter". Worse than that there is blatant dishonest posting here from folks ramping the stock to death. Tullow LSE is basically a toxic forum in the main.