Member Info for xxnjr

Trading updates (as opposed to mandatory half/full year reports) are voluntary disclosers aiui. Last year it was on the 28th Nov which was a Thursday. So a few days earlier this year.

Https://www.tullowoil.com/investors/events/

Phlabulous - Interesting suggestion but don't think that would really work out. Why not? There is already a potential production constraint with Jubilee as increasing GOR means the associated gas output from the field is approaching the gas handling capacity of the KNK FPSO. You probably know this but when built KNK was rated at 160 mmscfd and then it's been steadily upgraded to 185, 200, 220 and 250 now to handle increasing Assoc Gas volumes. Prof JEA FPSO (TEN) was rated at 170 mscfd when built and has only been upgraded to about 185 mmscfd AFAIK as that is the max assoc gas the field has ever produced. I don't know but it's probably the same with water injection pumps. KNK has 3 x 150 Kbwpd pumps (following upgrades) I doubt JEA has anything like that capacity. In short JEA is not up to Jubilee spec requirements. As a non-engineer and without being involved in the industry myself maybe JEA appears more robust simply because it's only working at 30% of design capacity? Whereas KNK is having to handle large gas and water volumes relative to original design spec?

I kind of had similar thoughts about JEA. At least with disconnect. Mine then differs from yours as I thought sail away to somewhere other than Ghana might be a good idea! i.e produce TEN oil through Jubilee FPSO but then we run into the same issue of associated gas processing capacity being insufficient to handle both fields.

I'm afraid we are stuck with the existing kit where it is!

Another offload starting now (16 days).

It's a juggling act at current oil prices. Rig rates are up about 70% since the last campaign (sort of $450K/day now versus 250K/day for the last 23 wells) so it's a question of how many wells ideally we'd like to drill now to support production against what we can actually afford to drill. Given that I'd say the 2026 program is quite aggressive.The new wells (I presume) should have lower GOR's than some of the plodding existing wells that are coughing up too much gas. If you bring on 2 or 3 lower GOR wells that should enable them to shut in some of the plodders and maybe lower the overall GOR as the latter is a potential production constraint. I'm no expert but it sort of feels like they are trying to overwhelm rising GOR with a barrage of new (hopefully lower GOR) wells. Rahul tried to do that with adding w/inj wells but it didn't really work out. It would be great if Petrocom released monthly data then we could get a better handle on GOR post the first new well.....

You can't really fault previous management for not drilling enough wells. The rig was after all drilling continuously for 1,165 days. Or 3.19yrs and they drilled 23 wells. Or an average of 7.2 wells/yr. With the benefit of hindsight it appears we can can fault previous management for drilling all of those wells on vintage seismic!

One of the analysts raised a Q about the potential TEN FPSO lease buyout. This was KOS's answer:-

"When we look at TEN, specifically it's been high operating costs at the field. A large portion of that is because of the lease. The lease makes up more than 60% of the operating costs at TEN, and so it's been naturally an area for us in the partnership to focus on how do we get that cost down. And so we've been working a purchase option together with the with the rest of the partnership and the FPSO owner to get that concluded here in the fourth quarter.

In terms of specific details on consideration and things, we can't disclose those terms until it's signed. But what I can tell you is what we're trying to do or what we agreed to do is sort of no additional payments in terms of what we're paying for the lease until a sort of closeout payment in 2027. And that payment would be basically a reduced buyout payment for the FPSO. And it would be done on very attractive terms with paybacks similar to what we've seen on M&A transactions like Oxy, Ghana, et cetera, that we've looked at.

And so no additional cash upfront. We serve out to lease until '27. We have a discounted purchase option at that point, which lowers the operating costs and allows us to get access to the extended life of the field and additional sort of upside and opportunities in the future. And so, again, it's a good transaction. We're happy to see it progressing and hope to see more news on that here before the end of the fourth quarter."

If they can get this sorted out with MODEC (the guys who built the FPSO and lease it to the partnership) then hopefully that will be a building block to ease the way to the so called 'holistic' refinancing? Whatever that may entail....

Their "paid for analyst" is forecasting 26FY Brent to average $72.50 which seems a tad optimistic! Even that results in net debt rising marginally next year against yr end 2025 but thats based on a rather dire production forecast of only 44.6K boepd including gas for 2026.

Oh here we go, here's the transcript "..... So we expect that well to be on at the end of the year.

And so you're going to exit it at a sort of around sort of 70,000 barrels of oil per day on Jubilee. So as you go into 2026, the question is, of course, well, what's going to happen and what are you what's your view of the future? We've got four more producers to drill. We've always talked about them doing between 5,000 and 10,000 barrels a day. So if you sort of say, okay, 500 or something on average, that adds if you add it up in a simplistic sense, gets you to around 100,000 barrels a day. Then you got to put on the decline rate.

So let's say, you put on decline rate at 20%, which is both on the new wells, which is probably a little high on aggregate, if you apply that 20%, then it brings you down to the 80s. And that's the rate we'd anticipate getting to as we go through the year. So I think we've got a clear path going forward. We're clear about the well selection. I say that the producers where we're targeting are in the main part of the field.

They're targeting areas where we got good pressure support in terms of challenges we've had in the past were at the end of the last drilling program, we're in Jubilee Southeast area where there's less concentration of injectors. And therefore, I think we had challenges around the connectivity, in particular, on one well. So you can't you've got to be careful when you talk about decline rates. You've got to think about it both the two dynamics, where you're putting the wells, what's the pressure for, and also the difference in the as you change the well the production between the new wells and the existing wells, yes.

But I think that's the right way to sort of think about Jubilee. I think there are things to monitor going forward. First thing, have you started drilling? Yes, we have. The objective then would be to get the well on production around the end of the year. What production rate do we get then? And then you start to build it up as you drill the next. So it's four producers in '26. And as I said in the remarks, we've actually sort of high graded the program a bit to optimize it so we can squeeze in a water injector, which is important for the next program, all within the original capital budget......"

I thought Inglis said (i'm paraphrasing)

After new well online at y/end production should be 70K. We drill 4 more in 2026 at say an ave 7.5K - that takes you to 100K then factor in the underlying decline of 20% gets you to sort of 80K.

"Gross Oil Production at Jubilee: 62,500 barrels per day, a 13% increase quarter on quarter."

Yes but we must remember there was a Jubilee FPSO maintenance shutdown in 2Q meaning Apr was only 42,396, May 61,134 and June was 62,102 bopd. So we have this new well which has apparently averaged about 10K bopd over Aug/Sept/Oct (it's first 3 full production months) yet the 3Q average 62,500 bopd is little different from the June number. The gain from the new well appears to have been cancelled out by decline elsewhere in the field over Aug/Sept. Will be interesting to get the monthly numbers from Petrocom if/when they release the data.

The current situation of the lease according to a email reply received from Mathew in IR "As we stand the annual net TLW cost of the TEN FPSO lease is c.$130m. In 2027 this drops to c.50% of that, then continues to tail off to licence expiry in 2036."

"The TEN partnership is finalizing a sale and purchase agreement to acquire the TEN FPSO at the end of its current lease, planned to be signed by year-end. We expect this to significantly reduce TEN operating costs and positively impact our leverage in 2025 and beyond."

The lease expires in April 2027 from memory? If they can purchase the lease then that should have a significant positive impact on their financing post 2026.

At Jubilee (38.6% working interest), oil production in the third quarter averaged approximately 62,500 bopd gross. The first producer well of the 2025/26 Jubilee drilling campaign came online in July and initial production levels have been encouraging, averaging ~10,000 boepd through the first three months. Following a period of scheduled maintenance, the Noble Venturer rig arrived back in field in mid-October and has spud the second planned producer well, which is expected online around year end. Within the original 2026 drilling campaign budget, the joint venture partners have approved the activity set, which now includes the 4 planned producers and an additional water injector.

In the third quarter of 2025, Ghana gas production net to Kosmos was approximately 5,200 boepd, lower than planned as a result of extended scheduled maintenance on the onshore gas processing plant.

At TEN (20.4% working interest), oil production averaged approximately 16,100 bopd gross for the third quarter. The TEN partnership is finalizing a sale and purchase agreement to acquire the TEN FPSO at the end of its current lease, planned to be signed by year-end. We expect this to significantly reduce TEN operating costs and positively impact our leverage in 2025 and beyond.

Post the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Government of Ghana last quarter, all documentation for the extension of the production licenses to 2040 have been prepared for submission to the government for final approval. Once approved, Kosmos expects to recognize a material uplift in its 2P reserve base.

These schemes are just money printing arrangements for executive directors even though performance doesn't merit such an award. I mean the company under Rahul could hardly have performed any worse than it did under his tenure and yet he received about 22m shares through various remuneration and bonus arrangements. How could that have been right? Rahul also received a roughly equivalent amount to the notional value of the shares when awarded as cash bonus on top for performance against key performance indicators. The KPI's are disclosed 'after the event' in Annual Reports.

It is SW Tasman

https://www.shearwatergeo.com/press-releases/shearwater-to-undertake-ghanas-first-deepwater-ocean-bottom-survey

SW Tasman the vessel that I assume is doing the OBN seismic survey is due to arrive in the Jubilee area around midnight tonight.

Marcel,

Fearmongering? Not at all! It depends on an individual's own personal risk profile and whether they are day trading or considering things for a longer term perspective. What you deem to be fearmongering may be considered prudent advice by others. Time will tell

What's people's views on the refinancing ... I've heard good things about Richard Miller he seems to be dependable ..but is Tullow going to make it ...would they employ a new CEO if things weren't already in place?.....

FWIW I feel Tullow is uninvestable at the moment. Better to wait to see if there is a successful refinancing, what the terms are and what that means for anyone holding.

Hopefully it won't happen here for anyone holding but just as a reminder this is what can happen when things don't work out.

"28 October 2025 CANCELLATION OF LISTING AND TRADING OF PETROFAC ORDINARY SHARES. Petrofac Limited (in administration) (the “Company”). Following the appointment of administrators to Petrofac Limited (the Group’s ultimate holding company), the listing of the Company’s shares on the equity shares (commercial companies) segment of the Official List and on the main market for listed securities maintained by the London Stock Exchange is expected to be cancelled, in each case with effect from 8:00 a.m. (London time) today, 28 October 2025."