Member Info for xxnjr

Although....!

JMAX

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 5,364

RE: 25p+ by Xmas or more?2 Dec 2025 12:16

I'm the best poster on here by far - fact.

Jmax - my apologies! You regularly seem to merely ask who the best poster is. Sometimes accompanied with a smiley.

What?......

'trigger' is an interesting word to choose!

Jmax - No what I meant was why is it important for you personally to be perceived as the best poster on here to the extent that you regularly claim to be so. if you don't want to answer that's ok.

Just as a matter of interest why is this so important for you?

Nobody cares!

(even though I've replied).

Since the info about Sams ave buy price is readily available (although I'm not aware of from where?) can you not provide it?

Diversionary tactic! Where's your evidence since you introduced the point about sam 50p this am.

Jmax - If one wishes to have credibility its good practise for the poster making a particular point to back it up with evidence. Since you have made a claim about Sam and 50p where's your evidence? Why should others have to provide that for you?

"Sam has an average of about 50p per share and he hasn't bought any shares for years."

Kindly provide forensic evidence for that 50p!

As far as I know the "closed period" is 30 days before half and full year results are announced. Half year results were announced on 6th August, 2025 at 07:00, the market opened that day at 08:00 and RG bought 2m shares that day sometime after 08:00AM once the results were in the market.

https://ir.design-portfolio.co.uk/viewer/96/80800

"Date of the transaction 06/08/2025"

No purchases were made in the 30 days prior to half year results being released.

I'm sure we all understood Anton's point. Whilst we may not be in a close period per se, the more general point Anton was alluding to is that a non-executive chairman cannot (or should not!) buy shares in the company should they be in possession of any material, non-public information specific to the refinancing that is not already factored into the public announcements.

Jmax - in that case kindly forensically prove to all of us that I had not blocked you for many months after the time that I mentioned on this board that you were blocked.

Would imagine Anton blocked you (as he said he would, whenever that was) and then subsequently unblocked you for whatever reason. Where's the story here? And even though I have responded...... Nobody cares!

Indeed. Well done anyone/everyone who has done well out of the recent bounce. GLA.

Wouldn't get too hung up on all of this as it depends on how you frame the question. AI it seems can be a bit like a rudderless boat with an outboard motor that can run away with itself in random directions. You have to keep it on track and within the confines of sensible outcomes. Anyway it was just a thought experiment to address Anton's original Q.

Shareholder Outlook: The Binary OutcomeThe fate of the shareholders depends almost entirely on the outcome of the debt negotiations.ScenarioFinancial Outcome for ShareholdersLikelihood (Implied by S&P/News)A: Successful Refinancing (Best Case)Debt maturity is extended without significant equity participation from bondholders. Equity value is preserved, and the share price may rally on relieved debt risk.Possible, but Challenging. Requires new collateral, high interest rates, or a strong recovery in oil prices/production.B: Distressed Restructuring (High Risk)Bondholders agree to an extension only by taking a significant "haircut" on the debt and/or demanding a large equity stake (debt-for-equity swap).High Probability. S&P specifically cites the risk of a "debt restructuring, which could be considered a distressed transaction." This would lead to massive dilution of existing equity.C: Default and Liquidation (Worst Case)Failure to reach an agreement, leading to default and the eventual sale of assets to repay creditors.Low, but Existential. The assets (Jubilee/TEN) are cash-generating and would likely be sold as a going concern, but shareholders would likely be wiped out.

It depends what you ask, my enquiry wasn't very well defined "Given their debt issues and apparent delays in refinancing the 2026 bonds, the poor jubilee field performance taken together with the low projected oil price are Tullow shareholders doomed?"

A: The short answer is that Tullow shareholders face extreme and existential risk, but they are not necessarily doomed. The current situation is a race against the clock, where the success of the debt refinancing will dictate the survival of the equity.The combination of the Jubilee field's underperformance, a lower oil price assumption, and critical delays in refinancing the $1.3billion bond due in May 2026 has pushed the company into a highly distressed financial state (S&P has downgraded the rating to 'CCC-').

The Core Problem: Liquidity and Refinancing Risk The most immediate threat to shareholders is the company's inability to secure a clean refinancing of its upcoming bond maturity. The May 2026 Debt WallThe Issue: Tullow has a $1.3 billion Senior Secured Note maturing in May 2026.4 The company is actively engaged in negotiations but has not yet secured an extension or repayment mechanism.Consequence: Rating agencies view this failure to address the debt within the next six months as a high risk of liquidity crisis.5 Failure to repay or extend this bond would likely trigger a default, leading to a financial restructuring.Alternative Options: Tullow is exploring "alternative options" with creditors, including "amend-and-extend" exercises and "liability management transactions." These terms often imply a restructuring where bondholders may agree to extend the maturity in exchange for a higher interest rate, a greater share of cash flow, or even a conversion of some debt into equity (which would severely dilute current shareholders). S&P Price Assumption and Cash FlowS&P's downgrade is based on a conservative Brent crude price assumption of $60/bbl}$ for 2026. At this price, the agency expects Tullow to generate negative free operating cash flow after lease payments in both 2025 and 2026. The company's own 2026 guidance, based on a $65/bbl oil price, only projects a pre-financing cash flow of $70 to $100 This is a small amount relative to the $1.2 billionyear-end 2025 net debt and the size of the bond coming due.

The poor performance of the Jubilee field is a direct contributor to the refinancing difficulty because it undermines the company's future cash-generating ability.Accelerated Decline: Your analysis highlights that the base decline rate in the mature Jubilee field is consuming new production rapidly Lower Guidance: Tullow's official guidance for 2026 Group production is now forecast to be 34-42 kboepd, reflecting the difficulty in offsetting the natural decline of existing wells.13 This lower production figure makes the company look less creditworthy to lenders and bondholders.

Here's a shorter answer to my last input (new wells in areas supported by existing w/inj wells)

2. Confirmed Causes for UnderperformanceThe operator's own reports confirm your suspicion that the "rest of the field is under performing."Explicit Confirmation of Decline: Tullow's November 2025 update states they "continue to face challenges related to the natural decline in our existing well stock."The Riser Problem (High Water Cut): The 2025 half-year results highlighted that Jubilee was "affected by higher than expected water cut from certain wells" which even impacted the stability of the riser system. High water cut means the existing producers are rapidly converting from oil wells to water wells, causing their individual decline rates to spike sharply.Lack of Pressure Support: While the new well (J72-P) has "good performance" (10K bopd), the rest of the field is showing that the overall reservoir pressure is not being maintained efficiently, specifically due to:The 19-day shutdown in H1 2025, which caused a permanent and severe drop in reservoir energy.Compartmentalization and inefficient sweep (as discussed previously), meaning the existing water injection is not reaching all parts of the reservoir to support the base wells.3. The Drilling TreadmillYour data shows the field is stuck on a drilling treadmill where capital investment is primarily used to run in place.The operator is being forced to accelerate drilling ($\text{5}$ producers for only $\text{1}$ injector in the current campaign) to inject high-volume, high-rate wells to offset the huge, non-linear decline of the base production. This strategy boosts the stock for a brief period, but the fundamental reservoir issues (compartmentalization and high water cut) quickly consume the gain, forcing the next well to be spudded almost immediately.In short, the existing wells are declining at a rate that is consuming the new capacity almost as fast as it comes online. This is the hallmark of a late-life, high-decline deepwater field with reservoir complexity.