Member Info for xxnjr

I don't usually 'do' takeover ramping. And this is probably highly unlikely to presage a move on TLW but as a holder of both M&P/SEPL I'm intrigued as to why M&P have monetised their 20.07% stake in SEPL (Gross 135K boepd) for $496m. Ok M&P have made a few recent acquisitions in Angola/Colombia but it's not like they needed the cash. So can only assume M&P might have something bigger in mind. But not anywhere as big as taking on $1.8bn of debt even taking into consideration M&P are 72.65% owned by Pertamina which means the TLW debt could be refinanced at much lower rates than hitherto. Suppose? if for example (I have no idea) 35% of TLW's 2026 debt was written off? then that might help but even so I cant see it happening as the remaining debt is just too chunky for M&P. If there was a JV with private equity and M&P as operator then that could be more palatable debt wise for M&P but M&P don't do JV's with PE. M&P do have the right sort of mid-life skill set albeit usually with on shore stuff..... but I cannot really see it happening unless M&P are getting their cash sorted out should TLW implode into an end game.

Hold both M&P and Seplat. I'm slightly surprised M&P have sold out given the excellent prospects for SEPL and can only assume M&P (who have already added a few bits and pieces to their portfolio recently) must have another opportunity in mind somewhere. I guess this means Tony O. Elumelu will be after the rest of Seplat at some point?

I'm on my 215th Jubilee cargo now. Have an app on my phone - Marine Traffic. Initially I just followed the action of the various vessels involved (2 to 5 offshore supply ships assigned to Tullow and various random tankers passing, or loitering) until a pattern eventually emerged in my head as to what was going on, how long it took to off load a tanker and what the sequence of events and vessel movements was, before, during and after an offload. This is important as sometimes vessels aren't broadcasting a live signal at times but you can still work it out from the relative locations and orientations of 'dead' vessels in relation to the FPSO and distances from it.

I entirely get what you are saying Stanley and all my analysis over the years has been formulated with that in mind. The only thing we need to consider are the actual cargo intervals. They do not lie. A least in the case of Jubilee. They are usually a really good indication of where production actually is (once you take 3, 4 and 5 cargo moving averages into account).

(stanley that was drafted before your last which I'm just reading)

StanleyPro - Petrocom data is always out of date sometimes by many, many months by the time it's published. Thats why I capture the data in real time including the last 2 cargos shipped this year in December which is what I was alluding to before.

GoGadjet - You are right. No growth in production at all. It's lower now than before the last well was hooked up. Hence the abyssmal production guidance pencilled in for 2026. It's a major concern as negative free cash flow resulting from lower production and lower oil prices led them to revise up y/end net debt guidance by $100m (worse).

Can anyone explain how a company with $1.7bn of gross debt $1.3bn of which is due in 136 days can refinance when they have negative free cash flow?

What? You mean like (2 x 953,000)/30 = >60K?

Haven't been following closely as I've been in Spain but looks like that well is still drilling. FWIW recent tankers suggest Jubilee now below 60K.

Clearly goes to the self-conceited one who disrupts this discussion forum with one liners on a daily basis. We all know who that is ****

And even worse than the prior "worse than that" some posters appear to be in denial regarding the oil price.

I knew you knew Anton! :) it was just in case anyone else was unsure (like me) so I had to Google it.

The short answer is Richard hasn't sold any shares. All thats happened is he's gained legal ownership and control of those shares. If he were to sell - then presumably there would be required to be a further notification.

Jmax - No worries! Apology accepted.

Jmax - many thanks for the reply. Fair enough. But if I may say so some on here may take issue with

"I do not recall anyone else stating that the company will be restructured but at the expense of the SP."

Just to give one example. Has not the guy (Jbond?) who actually held the 2025's bonds made that very same point and explained it in expert detail?

Just to clarify

....An accurate depiction? - meant did I summarise correctly (not you!)?

JMax - So if I understand correctly, in essence you got TLW so badly wrong in the past (and I'm paraphrasing) that the loss on your holding meant effectively being trapped and unable to do much about it? You then morphed into a relentless full time trader without specifying if long, short or both? You called a sell at 39p (well done!) You suggested (as many, many others have on here) that a refinancing will get done but at the expense of the share price? Is that an accurate depiction?

Hi good afternoon JMax!

ref "trying to criticise a poster who predicted this dire situation."

What is it exactly you predicted? As I had you on filter I missed it. Will you not provide a forensically researched link so that I may give you the Kudos you deserve :)

Flav - Good research, thx. Mahogany-3 sounded the most promising with 17m of net pay in the "deep" target.

https://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/successful-mahogany-3-appraisal-and-exploration-well/

"..... The secondary objective of the well was to drill Mahogany Deep, an exploration target which has been identified on 3D seismic but lies at a previously untested stratigraphic level. In this section, the well encountered 17 metres of good quality oil bearing reservoir sandstones at levels significantly deeper than the oil water contacts previously intersected on the Jubilee field. This success opens up further potential in the region and is the subject of ongoing evaluation."

Mahogany-2 Deep a subsequent follow up well didn't really develop the picture much

https://www.tullowoil.com/media/press-releases/mahogany-deep-2-appraisal-well-confirms-southerly-extent-jubilee-field/

"In total, the well intersected 53 metres of net reservoir sandstones, 20 metres of which were in the Mahogany Deep section. These were found to be water bearing at this location but are not connected to the Mahogany Deep accumulation at Mahogany-3. Further extensions to the Mahogany Deep accumulation may exist to the south and east of Mahogany-3....."

".....A new reservoir was also encountered in a deeper stratigraphic level beneath the Mahogany Deep section and an oil sample was successfully recovered from a 1 metre zone which has not been encountered in any other wells in the West Cape Three Points licence to date."

I think the trail may have ended there. Now I remember Rahul uttered the magic words "and we found some oil in one well in a deeper level than the other wells" but based on the evidence of what the early wells found it seems a bit patchy. I'm sure they will be looking at it on the 4D/OBN..... but would guess the main wins from that would be in finding bypassed oil and a better understanding of the fluid movements within producing reservoirs.

Perhaps also worth mentioning these are production licenses that have been carved out of the original 2 very large expln blocks. Slide 21 of the 2020 CMD Presentation said

• Several near-field prospective opportunities identified

• Low risk, commercially attractive, accelerated tie-in targets

• Estimated volumes >100mmboe STOIIP (gross)

• Discussions with Government on access commenced

Apart from that there are a few field extensions to be developed like Jubilee NE and Enyenra.

Incidentally Ghana.gov are talking about acquiring Springfields interest in the "1bn bbll" Afina discovery and that was found in the part of the block that Tullow relinquished. Stena Drilling has a claim against Springfield and/or Ghana.gov for unpaid bills from the Afina-1X well. It seems not paying is endemic in Ghana. ENI were/are owed $1bn for gas if memory serves.

Nothing wrong with B2000's advice - proved to be accurate and well meaning.

It's interesting that at the same time that the bonds have dropped sharply in recent days the SP is moving in the opposite direction.